Wolverine Digest

Same As It Ever Was

The Citrus Bowl didn't reveal to us anything we didn't already know about Michigan football -- and that's the problem.

Steve Deace

Same As It Ever Was
Same As It Ever Was /

The Citrus Bowl didn't reveal to us anything we didn't already know about Michigan football -- and that's the problem. 

With less than 10 seconds left in the Citrus Bowl and the Wolverines trailing Alabama by 19 points, Michigan's best wide receiver was inexplicably running an underneath route for a paltry eight-yard completion. Unfortunately, it was also one of Shea Patterson's best throws of his overall forgettable day. 

That's pretty much all you need to know about the Crimson Tide's 35-16 victory, because if you're a Michigan fan you've seen it all before. Just as you've seen a Jim Harbaugh team finish the season with three losses or more before, too, because that's happened every season he's been here. But the official spin is college football's winningest program couldn't possibly expect better, so you'll take 9-4 and be told by the self-appointed gatekeepers you're a terrible fan who hates your favorite team if you don't like it. Enjoy!

That's not to say Michigan didn't do anything good in this game, because that wouldn't be true, either. In fact, the 2020 Citrus Bowl was a microcosm of the entire Harbaugh era. 

Michigan was successful for long stretches, but then couldn't close. Michigan was partially undone by one-sided poor officiating, in this case the roughing the passer on Aidan Hutchinson and apparently an unannounced moratorium on targeting penalties. Don Brown's defense got several impressive stops, but then was also lit up for too many big plays. And in a game of magnitude the team not named Michigan clearly had the better quarterback. 

That's not just a summary of this game, but the past five years. 

Assistant coaches, lots of assistant coaches (with more apparently to be announced), come and go. Players come and go. But as the great prophet Jimmy Page would say, the song remains the same. The good news for Michigan fans is we're the only brand-name fanbase that doesn't really have to sweat out such offseason attrition. For we already know the team will finish with 3-4 losses come the fall regardless. That's as constant as the North Star. 

The number one thing holding the program back is also the number one reason the program has come back at all from Rich Rod's Josh Groban fetish, and Brady Hoke still clapping—Harbaugh. The program is light years ahead of where it's been since Lloyd Carr retired 12 years ago, and depending on who returns next season could be one of the most talented rosters Harbaugh has had yet. 

However, Harbaugh has yet to do the one thing that seemed certain when he arrived in Ann Arbor—recruit and develop an elite quarterback. You cannot hide your quarterback in college football, and if you don't have an elite one you're not winning titles, period. Jake Rudock, Wilton Speight and Shea Patterson at times in their careers playing for Harbaugh ranged anywhere from nice to pretty good quarterbacks. 

But in the biggest games, against the toughest foes, they were each weighed, measured and found wanting. Unless you want to count Rudock against a Florida team that couldn't have been less interested in playing in this same Citrus Bowl five years ago. And while those three quarterbacks each had different profiles, they had Harbaugh's tutelage in common. 

Just look at Patterson, who after surging down the stretch this season finished not with a bang but a whimper. Looking nothing like the five-star prospect who once led the SEC in passing, Patterson completed only 21 of his last 61 passing attempts as a Wolverine with one touchdown and four interceptions. That's a horrible, no good and very bad QBR of 27.97. ABC-TV's stats "credited" Patterson with a whopping seven overthrows in the game. You could do a viral meme of all the times ABC-TV analyst Greg McElroy pointed out Patterson's misreads and inaccurate throws. 

You'd like to think backups Dylan McCaffrey and Joe Milton couldn't have done any worse than the primordial ooze on nationally-televised display, but we're assured by those in the know Patterson is way ahead of both of them. So you know what that means—3-4 losses next season it is again. 

Now is when many of you reading this will ask me what happened to the Harbaugh that turned non-scholarship San Diego quarterback Josh Johnson into a 10-year pro, and revolutionized the NFL with Colin Kaepernick. I wish I knew. We all wish we knew. 

Patterson was dramatically out-played by Alabama's backup quarterback, Mac Jones, who was pressured more often but still played far superior. Patterson was the No. 4 overall prospect in the 247 Composite coming out of high school, Jones just No. 399. So either the 247 Composite really sucks, or something else does. 

But let's not heap too much criticism on Patterson. Sure, he's overrated, but that's also an excuse that lets Harbaugh off the hook. Here's a stat that I think tells us more about how good a coach is than any other:

The reason this stat is important is because it's the best illustration of whether or not you're getting the most out of your talent. Throw in that a team like Michigan isn't an underdog all that often anyway—and when it is it's usually spotted a point or two in the line because of its brand—and this is even more damning. It confirms another thing we already knew—Jim Harbaugh can't win on Xs and Os, only Jimmys and Joes. If he can't just line up and out-athlete you, he can't beat you.

By the way, guess who recently had the best record against the spread as an underdog in college basketball? John Beilein during his tenure at Michigan.

Thus begins another winter of our discontent. The good news is we're so used to ending seasons like this, it doesn't even hurt anymore. After all, we couldn't possibly do any better, as we're assured by the most enlightened. 

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Steve Deace
STEVE DEACE

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