History Says Michigan Must Get Elite QB Play To Reach Its Potential
History proves there's nothing holding Jim Harbaugh's program back more than the lack of elite quarterback play.
The recent hand-wringing over the "talent gap" between Michigan and Ohio State is both obvious and overrated. Of course the Buckeyes have more talent. However, history says they've always had more talent than the Wolverines.
During the famous "10 Year War" between Bo Schembechler and Woody Hayes from 1969-78, Ohio State had 88 players drafted into the NFL -- including 15 first rounders. Michigan had 74 players picked, including eight first rounders. Bo went 5-4-1 against Woody during that time, and Ohio State didn't score an offensive touchdown in the final three meetings.
During the era Michigan went 10-2-1 against John Cooper from 1988-2000, each school had 61 players selected in the NFL Draft (the draft was shorter than in the 1970s, which is why the overall numbers declined). But the Buckeyes had 17 first rounders compared to Michigan's 12.
Since Jim Harbaugh has been at Michigan, Ohio State has had 35 players chosen in the NFL Draft, including 12 in the First Round. There have been 21 Wolverines picked, but just four first rounders. However, the Buckeyes had five of those first rounders come in the 2016 draft alone, before Harbaugh even had a full recruiting cycle in Ann Arbor.
Translation: the talent gap between Michigan and Ohio State now is not that much different from what it's historically been.
So what's holding Harbaugh/Michigan back from making this a rivalry again? There are several factors that come into play, but there's one that takes priority -- the Wolverines have lacked elite quarterback play.
Michigan voted Shea Patterson its team MVP in 2019, and it could certainly be argued he was deserving. He was also the third best quarterback, at best, in a Big Ten that has produced exactly one first rounder at the sport's most important position in the past quarter century.
Let's go back to November and switch quarterbacks between Justin Fields and Shea Patterson. Do you still think Ohio State wins? Maybe, but certainly not by the margin we saw in The Game. Switch quarterbacks between Dwayne Haskins and Patterson in 2018, who do you think wins that year? At the very least it's not the blowout in Columbus we painfully endured.
Flip Haskins or J.T. Barrett with John O'Korn and I think Michigan wins The Game in 2017. Flip Barrett with Wilton Speight in 2016 and I think Michigan wins that one, too. The talent difference between the two teams was probably too big of a gap regardless in Harbaugh's first year (2015). Jake Rudock would still be handing it off to Ezekiel Elliott.
We all remember Devin Gardner's superhuman five-touchdown performance on a busted ankle that almost upset the Buckeyes in 2013. However, Braxton Miller also had five touchdowns that day for Ohio State.
Chad Henne re-wrote the record book at Michigan and was a fine player. Troy Smith won the Heisman Trophy and was an All-American.
The last two times Michigan had the clearly superior quarterback in this series, 2011 and 2003, are not coincidentally the last two times it won. Denard Robinson was setting records when Miller was a true freshman learning his way. Craig Krenzel was a good, game-manager quarterback with a clutch gene, but John Navarre was the All-Big Ten signal-caller that season.
In fact, superior quarterback play is how Michigan has overcome the talent gap against Ohio State for decades. Think Drew Henson over Steve Bellisari. Elvis Grbac over Greg Frey. Jim Harbaugh over Jim Karsatos. Rick Leach over Rod Gerald.
The Buckeyes have always had the better in-state talent base to recruit from. The Buckeyes have always been the more talented program. This is nothing new, as history and the data prove. To claim otherwise, frankly, is an excuse.
What's different is Michigan's subpar quarterback play. And quarterback development, by the way, was supposed to be Harbaugh's strength when he arrived here five years ago. Unfortunately, we've yet to really see that.
Trade Speight for DeShaun Watson in 2016 and which team makes the playoff: Michigan or Clemson? Put Trevor Lawrence on this year's Michigan team, and how many games do the Wolverines lose? Maybe one? Put Jalen Hurts on this year's Michigan team and the Wolverines at least improve from 9-3 and 10-2, and we're probably talking about a New Year's Six bowl instead. Put Joe Burrow on this year's Michigan team, and its probably undefeated.
We could do this every season, because it's the premium position in college football. Ohio State risked emptying its quarterback room last offseason to land Fields, considered an elite prospect, because it knows that is the position that must be elite for your program to be so.
Therefore, whatever chance 2020 has to be the first season Harbaugh doesn't lose at least three games, or -- gasp! -- finally beats the Buckeyes, comes down to how much better than Patterson either Dylan McCaffrey or Joe Milton can be.
