Michigan Opponent Preview: Iowa Presents A Real Challenge
Iowa Hawkeyes 4-0 (1-0 in Big Ten) Ranked 14th in AP poll
Last Result: Iowa Hawkeyes 48, Middle Tennessee 3
The Iowa Hawkeyes took control of their matchup vs Middle Tennessee early, scoring on their first four drives, while forcing punts on the Blue Raiders' first six drives. The Hawkeyes took a 24-0 lead with more than eight minutes left in the second quarter, so the game was over relatively quickly.
Iowa finished the day with 644 yards of offense (351 rushing and 293 passing), while they allowed just 216 yards to Middle Tennessee. Iowa dominated the game from start to finish, accounting for 30 first downs compared to the Blue Raiders 12.
Iowa even had three running backs in Toren Young, Tyler Goodson and starter Mekhi Sargent who each had over 90 yards rushing in the game. Senior quarterback Nate Stanley had a great offensive day, going 17 for 25 with 276 passing yards and two touchdowns on the day.
Iowa Record Last Five Years
2018: 9-4 (5-4 Big Ten Record) Finished 25th in AP poll
2017: 8-5 (4-5 Big Ten Record)
2016: 8-5 (6-3 Big Ten Record)
2015: 12-2 (8-0 Big Ten Record) Finished 9th in AP poll
2014: 7-6 (4-4 Big Ten Record)
How has Iowa Fared vs Ranked Opponents in Last Five Years?
Since 2014, Iowa has gone 5-10 against teams ranked in the top 20 and has lost one-possession games in five of those 10 losses. The Hawkeyes' two biggest wins in the program's last decade came at home against No. 3 Ohio State in 2017 when they demolished the Buckeyes 55-24 and against the then undefeated No. 2 Michigan Wolverines in 2016.
Iowa was 1-2 against Top 25 teams last season, losing vs No. 18 Wisconsin 28-17 and No. 17 Penn State 30-24, on the road, before defeating No. 18 Mississippi State 27-22 in the Outback Bowl.
The Hawkeyes will look to defeat a ranked team on the road this weekend for the first time since 2015, when they defeated No. 20 Northwestern 40-10.
Their Offense
The Hawkeyes rank fifth in time of possession per game in college football so far this season, having the ball for just under 36 minutes per game, while averaging 33.5 points per game.
Iowa’s offensive numbers are certainly a little inflated, as they have scored at least 30 points in games against Miami (Ohio), Rutgers and Middle Tennessee. However, they did struggle against Iowa State, scoring just 18 points in their win.
Stanley has started the last 30 Iowa games. He is helped by a running attack that already has three ball carriers who have over 200 yards rushing: Toren Young (251 rushing yards), Tyler Goodson (202 rushing yards) and Mekhi Sargent (299 rushing yards).
The Iowa running game is averaging 217.5 yards per game with 5.2 yards per carry and seven touchdowns. In addition, the pass game has been successful, as in each of the four games Stanley has spread the ball around, seven different players have caught at least one pass.
Iowa’s best receiver Ihmir Smith-Marsette already has four touchdowns on the season, with 15 catches for 254 yards.
Their Defense
The Hawkeyes defense has been dominant this season, giving up just 34 points in their first four games, allowing their opponents an average f 8.5 points per game, fourth best in college football.
Iowa’s defense also ranks fourth in the country in yards allowed per game, as opponents average just 251 yards per contest (174 passing and 77 rushing).
The Hawkeye defense has been stellar in the first four games but hasn’t played an offense with as many weapons as Michigan.
Players to Watch (Offense)
Nate Stanley, Senior, Quarterback
The 6-4 243 pound quarterback Nate Stanley will start his 31st straight game in Ann Arbor and has 60 passing touchdowns in his Iowa career, which is the third most in school history. With two passing touchdowns this weekend, Stanley would move ahead of Drew Tate on that list.
Stanley is off to another strong start this season, having already thrown for 965 yards with eight touchdowns and no interceptions in 118 pass attempts. Stanley has also rushed for a touchdown, though, he is not exactly light on his feet.
Stanley will certainly head into the Big House with a lot of confidence, as he has a QBR rating of 77.2, which ranks 18th best in college football this season.
Tristan Wirfs, Junior, Offensive Tackle
The 6-5, 322 pound lineman was named College Football’s "Biggest Freak" by Bruce Feldman of TheAthletic.com. Wirfs broke Brandon Scherff's school power-clean record of four reps of 450 pounds and has a 35-inch vertical jump, which would rank as the second highest vertical jump among offensive linemen in the last seven years at the NFL Combine.
Many are talking about the Iowa offensive tackle as a possible top 15 pick in the NFL Draft this season, as he has been a key contributor in why the running game has been so successful for the Hawkeyes this season.
Players to Watch (Defense)
Michael Ojemudia, Senior, Cornerback
The 6-1, 200 pound corner out of Farmington Hills, Mich., has had an up and down career as a Hawkeye. Ojemudia was in and out of the lineup as a sophomore and junior and overcame a hamstring injury to reclaim a starting spot late last season.
The fifth-year senior corner has gotten off to a good start this season, leading the team in passes defended (two) and interceptions (two). Ojemudia is also tied for second on his team in solo tackles with 13. The corner will make his second start in his home state and will certainly have his hands full with whoever the Hawkeyes decide to match him up against.
Kristian Welch, Senior, Linebacker
The linebacker out of Iola, Wisc., leads the Hawkeyes defense in tackles this season with 31 and solo tackles with 14. The 6-3, 239 pounder has had at least six tackles in all four games this year. Welch is also just 18 tackles away from matching his total number of tackles a season ago.
Best Case Scenario for Iowa
If Iowa is able to have a balanced offensive attack, while playing the type of defense they have the last few weeks, the Hawkeyes could beat the Wolverines in The Big House. However, Iowa has yet to play a team with the talent level of Michigan, so it will be the first major test for the Hawkeyes.
Stanley will have to continue to play solid, turnover-free football.
The first few series are big for the Iowa defense, as it will set the tone for the game, and if they are able to shake Shea Patterson’s confidence early, like Army and Wisconsin did, the Hawkeye defense will be in for another great day.
Worst Case Scenario for Iowa
The Hawkeye offense has only turned the ball over once this season, and if that changes, Iowa could be in trouble. Iowa’s offense can’t afford to give the Wolverines short fields in this game, as Michigan has yet to prove they can methodically move the ball down the field against a competent defense.
On defense this means Iowa can’t let up big plays to Michigan’s talented wideouts. In addition, the Iowa defense can’t allow Patterson and the Wolverines offense to get into a rhythm early.
The worst-case scenario for Iowa is they give Michigan confidence early, as even after a win over a lousy Rutgers team, U-M may fold after they get hit in the mouth.
