Michigan football's chances to win each game in 2024

Trent Knoop | Aug 17, 2024

Michigan running back Donovan Edwards (7) runs for a touchdown against Ohio State during the second half at Ohio Stadium in Columbus, Ohio, on Saturday, Nov. 26, 2022. Syndication The Indianapolis Star / Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK

ESPN released its game-by-game analytics for Michigan football -- and other teams -- for the 2024 football season. The Wolverines have one of the tougher schedules in college football, but Michigan is also heavily favored in most of its matchups in 2024. There are a few games that will be very interesting with Michigan having three marquee games on the gauntlet.

Here is what ESPN says Michigan's chances are in every game this season.

Week 1 - vs. Fresno State

Fresno State Bulldogs wide receiver Erik Brooks (3) celebrates after scoring a touchdown during the NCAA football game against the Purdue Boilermakers, Saturday, Sept. 2, 2023, at Ross-Ade Stadium in West Lafayette, Ind. Fresno State Bulldogs won 39-35. / Alex Martin/Journal and Courier / USA TODAY NETWORK

Michigan's chance of winning per ESPN - 89.2%

Week 2 - vs. Texas

Jan 1, 2005; Pasadena, CA, USA: FILE PHOTO; Michigan Wolverines running back Mike Hart (20) in action against the Texas Longhorns during the 2005 Rose Bowl at the Rose Bowl. The Longhorns defeated the Wolverines 38-37. Mandatory Credit: Richard Mackson-USA TODAY Network / USA TODAY Sports

Michigan's chance of winning per ESPN - 34.9%

Week 3 - vs. Arkansas State

Arkansas State Red Wolves wide receiver Reagan Ealy (28) drops a pass as Arkansas State Red Wolves take on the Northern Illinois Huskies during the Camellia Bowl at Cramton Bowl in Montgomery, Ala., on Saturday, Dec. 23, 2023. Northern Illinois Huskies leads Arkansas State Red Wolves 21-13. / Jake Crandall/ Advertiser / USA TODAY NETWORK

Michigan's chance of winning per ESPN - 92.3%

Week 4 - vs. USC

Jan 1, 2007; Pasadena, CA, USA; Michigan Wolverines quarterback (7) Chad Henne calls a play against the Southern California Trojans in the third quarter during the Rose Bowl game at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, California. Southern California defeated Michigan 32-18. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports Copyright © 2007 Mark J. Rebilas / Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Michigan's chance of winning per ESPN - 65.7%

Week 5 - vs. Minnesota

Oct 7, 2023; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Michigan Wolverines quarterback J.J. McCarthy (9) dives for a touchdown against the Minnesota Golden Gophers during the second quarter at Huntington Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports / Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports

Michigan's chance of winning per ESPN - 84.4%

Week 6 - @ Washington

Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy points down the field during the second half of the College Football Playoff national championship game against Washington at NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas on Monday, Jan. 8, 2024. / Melanie Maxwell / USA TODAY NETWORK

Michigan's chance of winning per ESPN - 60.7%

Week 8 - @ Illinois

Nov 19, 2022; Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA; Michigan Wolverines running back Blake Corum (2) rushes in the first half against the Illinois Fighting Illini at Michigan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports / Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

Michigan's chance of winning per ESPN - 79.6%

Week 9 - vs. Michigan State

Oct 21, 2023; East Lansing, Michigan, USA; Michigan Wolverines quarterback Alex Orji (10) scores at the end of the game while dragging Michigan State Spartans linebacker Sam Edwards (35) with him at Spartan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Dale Young-USA TODAY Sports / Dale Young-USA TODAY Sports

Michigan's chance of winning per ESPN - 86.7%

Week 10 - vs. Oregon

Oregon Green Team wide receiver Tez Johnson carries the ball during the Oregon Ducks’ Spring Game Saturday, April 27. 2024 at Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Ore. / Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK

Michigan's chance of winning per ESPN - 34.5%

Week 11 - @ Indiana

Oct 14, 2023; Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA; Michigan Wolverines running back Donovan Edwards (7) rushes in the first half against the Indiana Hoosiers at Michigan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports / Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

Michigan's chance of winning per ESPN - 83.1%

Week 13 - vs. Northwestern

Michigan Wolverines defenders tackle Northwestern Wildcats running back Anthony Tyus III (27) during second half action Saturday, Oct. 23, 2021 at Michigan Stadium. Michigan defense / Kirthmon F. Dozier/Detroit Free Press / USA TODAY NETWORK

Michigan's chance of winning per ESPN - 85.4%

Week 14 - @ Ohio State

Nov. 25, 2023; Ann Arbor, Mi., USA; Michigan Wolverines running back Donovan Edwards (7) is tackled by Ohio State Buckeyes linebacker Steele Chambers (22) during the first half of Saturday's NCAA Division I football game at Michigan Stadium. / Barbara J. Perenic/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK

Michigan's chance of winning per ESPN - 25.8%

Conclusion: ESPN has Michigan favored in nine games and has it being the underdog in three games. The Wolverines' best shot of winning comes against Arkansas State in Week 3. Although Michigan has defeated Ohio State three games in a row, ESPN's analytics has the Buckeyes being the Wolverines' toughest game with just a 25.8% chance of winning. Michigan also only has over a 30% chance of beating both Texas and Oregon in the Big House. Based on these percentages, ESPN would have Michigan going 9-3 in 2024.

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