An Open Letter to Kevin Warren: The Data Says Let Them Play

It's not too late for the Big Ten to reverse course and play football this fall.

BuckeyesWire / USA Today

Much has changed with coronavirus and testing since you cancelled the fall season, Commissioner Warren, and it’s all good news. Leadership isn’t tested by always making the right decision, because no one is perfect, but in having the humility and courage to reverse course when it’s obvious you made the wrong one.

Dear Commissioner Warren,

First let me say from the outset that even a veteran commissioner would’ve had difficulty navigating these unprecedented times. The leadership challenges those in your position currently face are unparalleled in collegiate athletics, as they are for leaders across the cultural landscape.

Furthermore, I wish to take you – and the university presidents who likely wield the true power here – at your collective word that you originally cancelled fall football in our league out of an abundance of caution. I think it’s possible, if not even likely, you don’t completely agree with the decision – given the fact your own son is playing football as we speak in the SEC for Mississippi State. Nevertheless, a vital component of your job as commissioner is to represent the interests of the university presidents who call many of the shots in the Big Ten.

However, much has changed in just the three weeks since you made the announcement. And if you have any desire to align with the reportedly unanimous voice of our conference athletic directors who want to play a fall season, not to mention the legions of players and their families sharing that desire publicly as we speak, now is the time to reverse course. To use your office as a platform to make the case to those university presidents to undo potentially one of the worst decisions in the history of collegiate athletics. A decision that has only served to tarnish the league’s branding, generate perpetual public embarrassment, and harm the Big Ten’s relationship with its coaches/donors/alumni/players/fans.

Commissioner, much has changed with the virus since your cancellation, and it’s all good news. None of which you cited, by the way, in your recent clarification. In fact, you didn’t really cite any updated or stratified data in your open letter clarification, other than the global narrative of the virus in that moment. Except you’re playing Big Ten football, not planetary football. So all that really matters is what is happening in your country, and more specifically your own footprint.

Commissioner, permit me to share some of that data with you now:

• According to CDC, only 6% of deaths can be directly tied to having died from Covid as opposed to with Covid. Meaning 94% of those who have sadly perished had other preexisting co-morbidities that could’ve led to their deaths. Given the age and prime health of college football players, this is a key data point. How many college football players have a preexisting co-morbidity?
• According to CDC, confirmed hospitalizations for Covid nationwide are now at their lowest total since March 21.
• Only 2.9% of the available hospital beds in the Big Ten footprint are being used for Covid patients.
• According to CDC, only 1.9% of ER visits nationwide are for Covid-like symptoms, which means 98.1% of Americans are going to the ER for something other than coronavirus.
• According to the latest active case numbers, only 0.26% of people living in the Big Ten footprint are an active confirmed case of coronavirus.
• According to CDC, since March only 1.5% of deaths for those aged 15-24 have been with Covid.
• According to CDC, 15-24 year-olds represent 12.9% of the U.S. population but just 0.2% of all Covid deaths.
• The NFL has nearly completed its training camps, and heading into roster cuts currently has just one player on its Covid reserve list out of 2,560 total players. As you know, Commissioner, NFL teams have not been operating in a singular bubble like the NBA and NHL has, either. NFL teams have also been conducting padded practices for weeks, too. This means we have a proof of concept in real time for our league to emulate.
• A leading cardiologist at the University of Michigan doesn’t believe myocarditis is enough of a concern to justify cancelling football. A top genetic cardiologist at the prestigious Mayo Clinic has said the same. Furthermore, if you were seeing an alarming rate of early onset diagnoses from just the already permitted workouts as some media reports suggested, then why has the league permitted those style of workouts to continue?
• There have been three major testing innovations brought to market since the Big Ten’s cancellation as well. The University of Illinois, a member institution, received emergency FDA approval for a quicker and cheaper saliva-based test. The NBA Players Association, in conjunction with Yale University, has also received emergency approval from the FDA for a similar saliva-based test, which can cost as low as $4/sample. And now Abbott Labs has been granted emergency approval from the FDA for a self-contained saliva-based test that it will sell for just $5. Each of these innovations makes testing substantially more accessible and affordable than it even was a few weeks ago, when the conference called off the season.

The numbers are about as low as we can realistically hope for in a country this large, and a footprint as densely-populated as the Big Ten’s, minus an effective vaccine. The testing is more available and more affordable than ever before, too.

Commissioner, I implore you to follow the data, because it will align you with the overwhelming wishes of your players and programs – who simply want the same choice to play your family was granted by the SEC.

Leadership isn’t tested by always making the right decision, because no one is perfect, but in having the humility and courage to reverse course when it’s obvious you made the wrong one.