5 Predictions For The Michigan Football Season

It's Michael Spath's turn to offer five predictions for 2020, including who starts at quarterback and what happens to the Washington game.

Michigan will play 12 conference games, beginning Sept. 5: No one really knows how the football season will play out with the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, but I can't see teams flying very much, especially across the country, which eliminates Michigan's trip to Washington opening weekend and Arkansas State's visit to Ann Arbor Sept. 19. The Big Ten (and other leagues) would be wise just to drop the entire non-conference. Yes, this will hamstring the Group of 5 conferences that rely on the Power 5 paydays for survival but conferences will need greater autonomy over control mechanisms this season and it makes sense to keep everything internal.

The Big Ten could keep the schedule as is, or just add one more game for an even 10, but I would be willing to bet the conference will leverage additional league contests for greater TV revenue as it stands to reason that stadiums will be largely empty this fall and every school will be missing out on gate receipts. 

Logistically, it may be a challenge, but by eliminating all non-conference games, the Big Ten can more easily slide league opponents into open slots.  

Dylan McCaffrey will start but Joe Milton will get reps every game: According to Michigan offensive coordinator Josh Gattis both quarterbacks have done a superb job going through film and mental reps with the coaches via "zoom-like" apps, and that both are progressing, ready to hit the ground running when practices resume. 

With the lack of spring practice and what could be a rushed preseason, I don't expect either quarterback to separate from the pack, and with slightly different skill sets, both McCaffrey (a more natural read-option QB) and Milton (a bigger arm capable of stretching the field) offer Michigan's offense a chance to maximize their talent. There was a plan in 2019 to utilize Shea Patterson and McCaffrey but it went by the wayside in Week 2. It's coaching negligence to repeat the mistake in 2020.    

Returning starters won't have the clear edge they should: No spring ball, no offseason conditioning program, some athletes with access to actual gym equipment, others just doing body-weight movements. The coronavirus pandemic has spread every college football team out across the country, strength and conditioning staffs tailoring individual workouts for 115 players based on what they have access to, both in terms of weights, but also food/nutrition.  

Being in shape and "football shape" are two different things and there is no forecasting who will return to Ann Arbor in the latter. Thus, all bets are off when it comes to who plays and who doesn't. This will be less about returning experience and more about who is physically capable. 

Michigan will win more games on the road than at home: If my Big Ten-only scenario unfolds, each team will play six home games and six on the road. Michigan already has Wisconsin, Penn State, Purdue, Maryland and Indiana at home, and Michigan State, Minnesota, Rutgers and Ohio State on the road. The Wolverines need three more games against West Division opponents, one at home and two on the road. Any combination of teams is possible, but let's say Michigan gets Nebraska on the road and Illinois and Northwestern at home.

Home-field advantage won't mean much in crowd-less stadiums this fall, so it will simply come down to who is the better team and who executes better on any given Saturday. Prediction here Michigan loses to OSU on the road but that's the only defeat away from Ann Arbor, and loses two home games, to Penn State and Indiana as the Hoosiers finally end their drought against U-M. Final record: 9-3. 

Aidan Hutchinson, Cam McGrone & Jalen Mayfield will all go pro: Mayfield has already shown up on a bunch of 2021 Mock Drafts as a potential first-round pick and while both he and McGrone would be leaving after redshirt sophomore campaigns, the money from the NFL is too appealing to pass up, especially in a pandemic era that probably won't completely go away in the next 12 months. 

Hutchinson is also a Top-100 prospect as all three of the Wolverines have the physical size and skills coveted by NFL teams - strength, speed, quickness and versatility. I could see all three returning, opting to be leaders on the 2021 Michigan team and making a legit run at a Big Ten title and college football playoff, but if they all take a step forward this fall, they will rocket up draft boards.