Michigan Football: Wolverines must reach at least one of two milestones in 2024

Chris Breiler | Aug 1, 2024

Michigan Stadium under the lights / Christopher Breiler

Michigan enters 2024 with big goals and high expectations, but the vast majority of analysts are predicting a step back for the Wolverines this season. The roster is still talented, but Michigan is replacing all six captains and nearly 20 key contributors from the 2023 season. Additionally, Jim Harbaugh is now the head coach of the Chargers and a good portion of his staff opted to join him in Los Angeles.

All of those factors are playing a major role in why most expect Michigan to stumble in 2024, but head coach Sherrone Moore says the expectations in Ann Arbor haven't changed. "Team 145 has done a really good job up to this point in taking the necessary steps to be elite, to do all the things that we set out to do," Moore said at Big Ten Media Days. "Win the big games, beat our rivals, beat Ohio State. Win the Big Ten, go to the College Football Playoff and win it.

Although it's encouraging to hear Moore be so vocal about keeping the standard the same at Michigan, the reality is that it's going to be incredibly difficult for the Wolverines to go undefeated and win their second straight National Championship in 2024. Even the most optimistic fans would tell you that feels like a bit of a stretch, meaning they're also expecting at least one or two speedbumps along with way this year.

Assuming Michigan doesn't produce another undefeated championship season in 2024, what would a successful season look like for Year 1 of the Sherrone Moore era? I'm not sure that it involves a specific win total, but it definitely includes achieving at least one of two critical milestones.

Milestone 1: Beat Ohio State

Ohio State wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. (18) makes a catch against Michigan defensive back Quinten Johnson (28) and defensive back Mike Sainristil (0) during the second half at Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor on Saturday, Nov. 25, 2023. / Junfu Han/USA Today / USA TODAY NETWORK

There are some Michigan fans who will tell you that they'd be happy with a 1-11 regular season record, as long as the one win comes against that team down south. Although that's clearly an extreme way of looking at things, it does highlight how important it is for the Wolverines to continue their winning ways over the Buckeyes. Michigan has the opportunity to get its fourth consecutive win over Ohio State when the two programs meet in Columbus on Nov. 30, and it's safe to say that Michigan fans would be perfectly fine with any result in 2024 that includes a win over the Buckeyes.

It's worth noting that there are two factors at play this year that could somewhat diminish the value of that matchup on Nov. 30. The first is that its entirely possible that the Wolverines and Buckeyes could enter the final regular season matchup having already qualified for the Big Ten Championship game, thanks to the elimination of the East and West divisions. The second is that, regardless of what happens in the regular season matchup and potentially the Big Ten Championship game, it's also possible that the two programs could cross paths in the College Football Playoff.

Regardless of where or when it occurs, beating Ohio State is a top priority for Michigan in 2024.

Milestone 2: Qualify for College Football Playoff

Jan 8, 2024; Houston, TX, USA; Michigan Wolverines defensive back Will Johnson (2) celebrates with the championship trophy after defeating the Washington Huskies during the 2024 College Football Playoff national championship game at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports / Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

There's no doubt that Michigan's pathway toward the College Football Playoff is more difficult in 2024 than it was in 2023. With matchups against Texas, USC, Washington, Oregon, and Ohio State all in the regular season, the Wolverines can't afford any slip up against the teams they are already expected to beat. But the general consensus among most college football analysts is that there are three regular seasons losses on Michigan's schedule, meaning the Wolverines will likely need to pull off at least one upset to be in the playoff picture at the end of the season.

Assuming Michigan stumbles during the regular season and that one of those losses comes against Ohio State, the only way to soften the blow would be for the Wolverines to qualify for the newly expanded 12-team playoff. Any scenario that involves Michigan making its fourth consecutive appearance in the CFP would undoubtedly be viewed as a success for Year 1 of the Sherrone Moore era.

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