Breaking: Late Line Move in Michigan-Penn State

Overnight the line moved substantially in Michigan's favor, but why?

Nearly every pro handicapper -- otherwise known as "sharps" -- who makes his plays public and has picked tonight's game, is on Penn State to cover against Michigan. 

And yet, overnight heading into gameday the line dropped from Penn State minus-9 to minus-7.5. 

That's a massive line move this late in any game, but especially one that features two of the biggest public teams in the sport. And it's probably not public money, because the public typically bets favorites not underdogs. Especially underdogs of more than a touchdown, which is why 66% of the tickets on this game are on Penn State according to the Action Network. 

So what does this mean? There's three options:

1) A betting syndicate(s) or a previously uncommitted sharp(s) placed a substantial amount of money on the Wolverines. And when such a respected person or group comes out of nowhere and makes such a contrarian play, books are going to react out of fear there may be information out there they don't know. Or the recognition their current line is off, and those pros have exposed that to others. 

2) A betting syndicate(s) or a previously uncommitted sharp(s) placed a substantial bet on the Wolverines in order to cause the line to drop, in order to go back in on Penn State later as kickoff approaches. This could be a group that jumped on the opening number of minus-7.5, which caused the initial line to bump up to minus-9. And now that the line is back down to where it opened, they will go back in later on the Nittany Lions again. If the line goes back in Penn State's favor prior to kickoff, then you'll know this is what happened. 

3) The least likely scenario is oddsmakers moving the line down on their own to invite more lopsided action on Penn State. Often referred to as a "trap" line. This is the least likely option because this could very well be the most wagered on game of the week, and those folks don't work in palaces out there on the Vegas strip because they make a habit of exposing themselves to that level of risk.