Michigan vs. USC: 3 key areas that will decide the game

Chris Breiler | Sep 16, 2024

Michigan players huddle before kickoff against Texas at Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor on Saturday, September 7, 2024. / Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK

The Big House will once again serve as the venue for one of the biggest matchups of the 2024 college football season, as No. 18 Michigan welcomes No. 11 USC to Ann Arbor on Saturday. The Trojans (2-0) are coming off of a bye week, while the Wolverines (2-1) are fresh off of a 28-18 win over Arkansas State.

Although many are already writing off the Wolverines after three lackluster performances to open the season, the reality is that Michigan has a great opportunity to change the narrative this weekend. In order to do so, the Wolverines will need to win three key battles on Saturday.

1. Passing Defense

Michigan defensive back Will Johnson (2) attempts to tackle Texas running back Jaydon Blue (23) during the first half at Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor on Saturday, Sept. 7, 2024. / Junfu Han/Detroit Free Press / USA TODAY NETWORK

Most expected the Michigan defense to once again be one of the best in the nation. Although the Wolverines have been solid against the run, they've really struggled against the pass. Through three weeks, Michigan ranks 90th nationally and 16th within the Big Ten when it comes to passing defense, allowing 234.3 yards per game. Only UCLA and Maryland have put up worse numbers within the conference.

On the flip side, USC currently has the 7th ranked passing offense in the nation (1st within the Big Ten conference). The Trojans are just behind the Texas Longhorns nationally, averaging 336.5 yards per game through the air.

If USC continues its success through the air in Ann Arbor on Saturday, it will likely be a deciding factor in the outcome. However, if the Wolverines can find a way to clamp down on Miller Moss and force the Trojans to become one-dimensional with the rushing attack, that's a winning formula for Michigan all day long.

2. Third Down Defense

Sep 14, 2024; Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA; Arkansas State Red Wolves quarterback Jaylen Raynor (1) throws a pass against the Michigan Wolverines during the second half at Michigan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images / Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images

This is an area where the Michigan defense needs to make significant improvements. Through three weeks, the Wolverines rank 106th nationally and 16th in the Big Ten when it comes to third down defense. Against Texas, the Wolverines allowed the Longhorns to convert on 10-of-16 third down attempts.

In order to get the win against USC this weekend, Michigan will need to limit the opportunities for Miller Moss and his weapons through the air. If the Wolverines can win the battle on third down, they'll give themselves a good chance to win the game.

3. The Turnover Battle

Sep 14, 2024; Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA; Michigan Wolverines quarterback Alex Orji (10) runs the ball against the Arkansas State Red Wolves during the second half at Michigan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images / Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images

This is yet another critical battle that Michigan must win on Saturday.

Offensively, senior QB Davis Warren threw six interceptions through the first three weeks of the season. That inability to take care of the ball forced head coach Sherrone Moore to make a change and roll with Alex Orji as the starter against USC. Although there's hope that Orji will unlock some of the explosiveness within the Michigan offense with his dual-threat ability, the most important thing he can do is take care of the ball.

Defensively, the Michigan secondary has snagged three interceptions through three weeks, including a pick-six from Will Johnson in Week 1. But even with three picks, all three opponents (Fresno State, Texas, and Arkansas State) have found success in moving the ball through the air against the Michigan defense. It's a pretty safe bet that Lincoln Riley will take a similar approach with Miller Moss, meaning the Wolverines will have opportunities to create pressure and force mistakes.

Win the turnover battle, win the game.

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