Game Predictions: No. 18 Michigan vs. No. 11 USC

Game previews, bold predictions and final score predictions for Michigan football's Week 4 matchup with USC!

Matt Lounsberry | Sep 20, 2024

No. 18 Michigan hosts No. 11 USC in the Big Ten Conference opener for both programs. /

Following a 28-18 win over Arkansas State, No. 18 Michigan (2-1) faces its second Top 12 opponent in three weeks when it welcomes No. 11 USC (2-0) to the Big House this Saturday (3:30 p.m. ET / CBS).

The Wolverines and the Trojans will square off for the 11th time in their stories histories, but USC is traveling to Ann Arbor for the first time since 1958, which resulted in a 20-19 win for Michigan. The Wolverines are 4-6 in the previous 10 meeting with the Trojans, though USC has won six of the last seven matchups, each of which occurred at the Rose Bowl.

USC enters the game with wins over No. 16 LSU (27-20) and Utah State (48-0) to begin their 2024 season. The Trojans are led offensively by quarterback Miller Moss, who has thrown for 607 yards and two touchdowns while completing 72.7% of his throws so far this season. The Trojans boast the No. 7 passing game in all of college football, averaging 336.5 yards per game through the air. Defensively, USC has made great strides under first-year D-coordinator D'Anton Lynn, though Michigan will test the physicality and fortitude of the Trojans in the trenches.

Michigan is a 5.5-point underdog coming into this matchup, the second time the Wolverines have been a home underdog already this season. Redshirt sophomore quarterback Alex Orji will make his first career start for Michigan, replacing previous starter Davis Warren, who threw six interceptions in three games for the Wolverines.

Without further ado, Michigan Wolverines On SI editor Chris Breiler, senior writer Trent Knoop and contributing writer Matt Lounsberry share their thoughts on the game below with Two Bold Predictions, Game Previews, and Final Score Predictions.

Chris’ Two Bold Predictions

1. Alex Orji will set career highs in attempts, completions, passing yards, and passing touchdowns on Saturday

I'm not so sure that this is a bold prediction, but I do expect Alex Orji to set new career highs in several categories on Saturday. As of now, his most productive game through the air came during last weekend's matchup against Arkansas State, where he finished with career highs in attempts (4), completions (2), yards (12), and tied his career high in passing TDs (1). With Orji now moving into the starting role, it's a pretty safe bet that we'll see his most productive day as a passer in all categories on Saturday.

2. The Michigan defense wins the battle on third down

In the Week 2 matchup against Texas, the Michigan defense allowed the Longhorns to convert on 10-of-16 third down attempts. The result was that Texas was able to sustain long drives, keep the Michigan defense on the field for long periods of time, and ultimately put points on the board. The Wolverines cannot afford to have a repeat performance against Miller Moss and USC.

I think the Michigan defense has heard the whispers that maybe they're not as good as everyone thought, and I think they'll enter Saturday's matchup looking to make a statement early. The Wolverines hold the Trojans to under 40 percent on third down.

Trent’s Two Bold Predictions

1. Michigan gets two sacks

This really shouldn't be a bold prediction, but that's where we are right now. The Wolverines have four sacks in three games and Michigan had three of those in Week 1. Josaiah Stewart is the only starter along the line who has a sack. Derrick Moore, Mason Graham, nor Kenneth Grant have gotten to the quarterback in 2024. That has got to change if the Wolverines will win some big games this year. The defense has to be better and it starts with the front. Michigan does have a chance to do that on Saturday. The Trojans' tackles have allowed both sacks and pressures against Miller Moss in two games. Michigan needs to take advantage of that.

2. Michigan tight ends catch eight-plus passes

I think this especially holds true if Colston Loveland plays -- which I expect him to. We know the connection Davis Warren had with the junior tight end and I wouldn't expect that to change with Orji behind center. Marlin Klein also had a nice game in the second half when Loveland went down last week when he caught three passes. I think Orji -- when he does get a chance to throw the ball -- will look toward his tight ends a ton against the Trojans.

Matt’s Two Bold Predictions

1. Michigan rushes for over 250 yards

Last week, I predicted the Wolverines to run for over 175 yards, and it wasn't nearly enough as U-M rumbled for 301 against Arkansas State. I expect Michigan to try to do something similar this week against USC. If I were Sherrone Moore, I'd take the football if I win the coin toss. The Wolverines strategy should be about possessing the ball as much as possible and keeping the Trojans' offense on the sideline, right from the start of the game. Between Kalel Mullings, Donovan Edwards and Alex Orji, we could see Michigan run the ball 50 to 60 times this weekend, but only if they avoid falling into an early hole on the scoreboard.

2. Wolverines get to Miller Moss twice, force a turnover

Ironically, given the expectations before the season began, I'm actually more worried about Michigan's defense in this game than I am the offense. I kind of know what to expect from the Wolverines' when they have the ball, but this defense has been surprisingly poor against the pass and on third down this season. If Michigan is going to have a shot at the upset, they have to impact Miller Moss on his dropbacks. I think the Wolverines will be able to that in some respect, and they come away with a pair of sacks and a turnover.

Chris’ Preview, Score Prediction

As someone who spent months advocating for Alex Orji to get a shot, the switch at quarterback is giving me a little more optimism that this one could fall in Michigan's favor. But at the end of the day, there are just two many question marks with this Michigan offense through three weeks. In addition to the unknown with Orji, there are also concerns with the offensive line and the wide receivers. Although running back Kalel Mullings has been a pleasant surprise so far, everyone is still waiting for Donovan Edwards to become the type of back we all thought he would be heading into the season.

And then there are the concerns with the defense. In addition to being one of the worst units statistically on third down within the conference, the Wolverines are also one of the worst units against the pass. I do expect Michigan to perform better in both areas on Saturday, but I'm just not sure it will be enough if the offense isn't producing at a high level as well.

Score Prediction: Michigan 20, USC 31

Trent’s Preview, Score Prediction

Going into the week, post Arkansas State, I was fully expecting to take USC this week. But as the week progressed and after Sherrone Moore named Alex Orji the starting quarterback, I started second-guessing that pick. Orji adds a whole new element to the Michigan offense and while Michigan will never admit it, it's hard to believe he wasn't the right choice from the start. Assuming he can connect through the air, Orji will make it hard on defenses to stop both the run and pass at the quarterback position -- but that's a big assumption.

Defensively, the Wolverines have struggled to stop the passing attack. What does USC excel at? You guessed it: throwing the football. The Wolverines are going to have to show they can slow down the aerial assault and guys like Jyaire Hill have to play better. The Trojans have too many weapons for Will Johnson and Makari Paige to do it all.

As much as I think Michigan can win this game, the Wolverines have too many question marks entering another big game. Michigan didn't show it could handle an explosive offense when it played Texas. Granted, USC isn't Texas, but the Trojans still have a very good offense.

Score Prediction: USC 28, Michigan 24

Matt’s Preview, Score Prediction

I've been more back-and-forth on this game than I expected to be this week. On the one hand, giving USC head coach Lincoln Riley an extra week to prepare should be scary for any defense, and that's only exasperated by the fact that Michigan's pass defense has struggled mightily through the first three weeks of the season. On the other hand, I do have a sense that the Wolverines are going to play like a cornered animal this weekend, and I think the switch to quarterback Alex Orji is going to have a motivating impact on Michigan as a whole. We aren't sure how healthy Colston Loveland is, but because I expect the Wolverines to double-down on their run game with Orji taking snaps, I'm not sure how big an impact Loveland's absence would have. Regardless, I hope the tight end is healthy and we get to see him play on Saturday.

This game is all about the line of scrimmage and ball control for Michigan. If the Wolverines can average five or six yards per carry, and generate pressure on USC quarterback Miller Moss without blitzing, they've got an excellent shot at pulling the upset here. However, there's just too many unknowns for me to comfortably pick the Wolverines.

Score Prediction: USC 27, Michigan 24

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