More likely to make the College Football Playoff, Michigan or USC?

The Wolverines will play host to the Trojans in Week 4 of the 2024 college football season...

Matt Lounsberry | Aug 20, 2024

The Michigan Wolverines and the Southern California Trojans will square off on Sept. 21 in Ann Arbor for each programs' 2024 Big Ten Conference opener. /

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Michigan Wolverines

A new era of Big Ten football will open when Michigan hosts Southern California on Sept. 21 in both program's conference opener this fall. While the matchup hasn't received the same level of buzz or fanfare that games against Texas, Oregon or Ohio State have, there's a scenario in which the Wolverines' contest against the Trojans may be their most important this fall.

That's not to suggest USC is a more important opponent for Michigan than Ohio State — far from it — but it could be the Wolverines' most pivotable game of the season. Should No. 9 Michigan knock off No. 4 Texas at home in Week 2, the Wolverines will be riding high and the national perspective regarding "Team 145" will shift drastically from 'they'll take a step back' to 'Michigan is still here'. Conversely, if the Wolverines fall to the Longhorns, they'll need to bounce back two weeks later and beat the preseason No. 23 Trojans in order to avoid a 2-2 start in 2024.

While the general belief is that Michigan will be too physical for USC at the line of scrimmage, there's a scenario in which head coach Lincoln Riley and the Trojans' high-octane offense makes things uncomfortable for the Wolverines. In a recent debate on ESPN's First Take, the network's Matt Barrie, Paul Finebaum and Shae Cornette discussed both programs and which they believed was more likely to reach the expanded 12-team College Football Playoff this year. Barrie opened the debate by stating he doesn't like Michigan or USC's chances at reaching the playoff this season, but said he'd lean towards the Trojans if forced to choose.

"I don't think either of them is even getting an odor of the 12-team playoff," Barrie said. "I think they both lost way too much [from last year's teams]."

Michigan Wolverines, USC Trojans football

Jan 1, 2007; Pasadena, CA, USA; Southern California Trojans wide receiver (8) Dwayne Jarrett is upended while attempting to catch a pass against the Michigan Wolverines in the third quarter of the Rose Bowl game at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, California. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports Copyright © 2007 Mark J. Rebilas / Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Meanwhile, as he's oddly done at times throughout this offseason given his prior track record with the Wolverines, Finebaum stood in Michigan's corner during this latest discussion.

"I disagree," Finebaum said. "I think they're both marginal, I think Michigan has a path though, and their path is pull an upset. I don't think Southern Cal has any chance at all of...they're not within a couple of time zones of making the CFP. I think Michigan, assuming they could beat Texas at home, which is not all that far-fetched, then has some momentum. But, Southern Cal, to me, isn't going anywhere except maybe seeing Lincoln Riley depart maybe in a year or two. Because, I'm just so underwhelmed by what he's done there."

Continuing that thought, Finebaum believes Michigan is set up well for the future behind new head coach Sherrone Moore, while he called Riley just "an average coach".

"I think Sherrone Moore has a chance to be a really good coach at Michigan," Finebaum said. "He showed what he's capable of last year, filling in for Jim Harbaugh literally half the season and I was impressed. Now, again, he had the groceries, he had a great team, but he didn't screw it up, which I think Lincoln Riley has made a career out of doing."

Jan 1, 2007; Pasadena, CA, USA; Michigan Wolverines quarterback (7) Chad Henne is pressured by Southern California Trojans defensive end (96) Lawrence Jackson and defensive end (84) Kyle Moore in the third quarter of the Rose Bowl game at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, California. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports Copyright © 2007 Mark J. Rebilas / Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Finally, Cornette settled the tiebreaker with an emphatic vote in favor of the Wolverines.

"Michigan, to me, is the obvious answer here for a couple of different reasons," she said. "One, yes, they're the reigning national champions. But, they also have quite a bit of talent. They have four projected first round picks on this roster, including three on the defensive side of the ball. So, there's definitely talent to be had there. In addition to that, Michigan is accustomed to Big Ten football. Sorry, USC, you're not. We're not playing in sunny California anymore where defenses don't always exist. Same, Lincoln Riley. How it was in the Pac-12, we didn't always have to play defense. In the Big Ten you do, especially with a schedule like USC has. So, if I have to pick one or the other, while I think both are going to have drop off, including the five losses USC had last year, I would have to take Michigan in this case. Because, I just don't think USC is ready for what's coming for them."

Both program's face difficult schedules this fall. Not only do they square off against one another, the Wolverines will face preseason No. 2 Ohio State and No. 3 Oregon in addition to Texas, while the Trojans open with No. 13 LSU, and host No. 8 Penn State and No. 7 Notre Dame later in the year. Barrie believes the battle between Michigan and USC in Ann Arbor in Week 4 will be a tight matchup.

"I think Michigan's going to be close [for USC]," he said. "Michigan's got a ton of question marks at quarterback. I mean, the Alex Orji kid is a great athlete [but] I think that's going to be a closer game than people think."

Michigan and USC have not squared off since the 2007 Rose Bowl Game, when the Trojans bested the Wolverines (32-18) in Pasadena. USC is 6-4 all-time against Michigan, with U-M's last victory coming in the 1989 Rose Bowl, a 22-14 decision. In fact, eight of the 10 all-time meetings between the two schools have occurred in Pasadena. The Wolverines and Trojans played a home-and-home series way back in 1957-58, with Michigan earning wins in Ann Arbor (20-19) and Los Angeles (16-6).

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