Ranking each Michigan football game in 2024 by difficulty

Trent Knoop | Aug 20, 2024

Ohio State wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. (18) makes a catch against Michigan defensive back Quinten Johnson (28) and defensive back Mike Sainristil (0) during the second half at Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor on Saturday, Nov. 25, 2023. / Junfu Han/USA Today / USA TODAY NETWORK

We are under two weeks away from seeing Michigan kick things off as defending national champions. The Wolverines will take the field on August 31 against Fresno State under the lights. The Wolverines have one of the more difficult schedules in college football this year -- let alone in the Big Ten. But if Michigan hopes to get back into the College Football Playoff, it will need to take care of business and hope to get to 10 or more wins. I'm going to examine the Wolverines 2024 schedule and rank it by difficulty.

Here's how I rank the Michigan football schedule from the least difficult to the toughest game.

12. Arkansas State (home)

Arkansas State Red Wolves quarterback Jaylen Raynor (1) throws the ball as Arkansas State Red Wolves take on the Northern Illinois Huskies during the Camellia Bowl at Cramton Bowl in Montgomery, Ala., on Saturday, Dec. 23, 2023. Northern Illinois Huskies defeated Arkansas State Red Wolves 21-19. / Jake Crandall/ Advertiser / USA TODAY NETWORK

Arkansas State is coming off of a 6-7 2023 season. While the Red Wolves aren't the easiest opponent Michigan has faced in the past few seasons, they shouldn't be any test for the Wolverines. Michigan will likely have some backups in the game by the second half during the Week 3 tilt.

11. Minnesota (home)

Oct 7, 2023; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Golden Gophers wide receiver Daniel Jackson (9) is tackled by a crowd of Michigan Wolverines during the second quarter at Huntington Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports / Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports

The Golden Gophers are also coming off of a 6-7 season and I'm not very high on this year's Minnesota team in the new-look Big Ten. Michigan does have the Gophers sandwiched between USC and Washington, but the Wolverines will be ready for Minnesota. Once again, I don't think Minnesota will present much of a challenge.

10. Indiana (away)

Oct 14, 2023; Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA; Michigan Wolverines wide receiver Semaj Morgan (82) runs the ball for a touchdown in the second half against the Indiana Hoosiers at Michigan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports / Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

Curt Cignetti -- while full of confidence -- is taking over a bottom cellar Big Ten school. The Hoosiers have struggled to remain relevant in the Big Ten and Cignetti went out and landed several players from the transfer portal. How he will do in the Big Ten remains to be seen, but the Wolverines will want to leave no doubt against the former James Madison coach.

9. Fresno State (home)

Fresno State running back Elijah Gilliam runs the ball during the Isleta New Mexico Bowl on Saturday, Dec. 16, 2023, at the University Stadium in Albuquerque. / Meg Potter/Sun-News / USA TODAY NETWORK

Fresno State is no gimmie. The Bulldogs have won nine or more games the past three seasons and Fresno State is known for its high-octane passing attack. With it being a Week 1 game, the new-look Michigan secondary will be tested early. But at the end of the day, Michigan should easily take of business. The stadium will be rocking for Michigan's first game under the lights.

8. Illinois (away)

Nov 19, 2022; Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA; Michigan Wolverines running back Blake Corum (2) rushes in the first half against the Illinois Fighting Illini at Michigan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports / Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

The Illini were 5-7 last season and there isn't much reason to believe Illinois should make a big jump in 2024. The Illini have a good enough quarterback in Luke Altmyer but mistakes have hurt him in the past. While the Illini are going to wear really cool helmets against Michigan, it won't be enough to pull off the upset. Being in Illinois gives the Illini a little stock in my rankings.

7. Northwestern (home)

Michigan Wolverines defenders tackle Northwestern Wildcats running back Anthony Tyus III (27) during second half action Saturday, Oct. 23, 2021 at Michigan Stadium. Michigan defense / Kirthmon F. Dozier/Detroit Free Press / USA TODAY NETWORK

Northwestern did the unthinkable last season and turned a terrible situation into a good one thanks to then-interim coach David Braun. Braun won the Big Ten Coach of the Year Award after taking over for Pat Fitzgerald. He led the Wildcats to eight wins a season ago. While I don't think Northwestern will win eight games again this season, I look at this being a potential trap game for the Wolverines. It's the week before Ohio State and Michigan will have to be focused on the scrappy Wildcats.

6. Michigan State (home)

Michigan Wolverines wide receiver Semaj Morgan (82) makes a catch against the Michigan State Spartans during second-half action at Spartan Stadium in East Lansing on Saturday, Oct. 21, 2023. / Kirthmon F. Dozier / USA TODAY NETWORK

While it's hard to imagine Michigan State makes a drastic improvement in year one under Jonathan Smith, I do think the Spartans will be much more competitive. On the same level as Michigan? Likely not. But MSU and Michigan is a heated rivalry and we've seen strange things happen in this game.

5. Washington (away)

Michigan defensive lineman Kenneth Grant reaches out to sack Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr. in the second quarter during the College Football Playoff national championship game against Washington at NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas on Monday, Jan. 8, 2024. / Melanie Maxwell/Detroit Free Press / USA TODAY NETWORK

This is where things can start to get interesting for Michigan. The Wolverines will travel out to Washington for a likely primetime game. To make matters even more interesting, it's a rematch of last year's national title game. Neither team looks the same as last year, but Washington has an entirely new look. Almost its entire roster will look different. But coach Jedd Fisch did a good job filling out the roster and brought in former Miss. State quarterback Will Rogers. Rogers is a prolific passer who can put up some serious numbers. Michigan will likely be a sizeable favorite, but this won't be an easy task for the Wolverines.

4. USC (home)

Dec 27, 2023; San Diego, CA, USA; Southern California Trojans quarterback Miller Moss (7) throws the ball to wide receiver Tahj Washington (16) in the second half against the Louisville Cardinals in the Holiday Bowl at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports / Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

We know all about USC's offense. It's as good as it comes and it doesn't matter who starts at quarterback -- they will be just fine under Lincoln Riley. The issue with a Riley-led team is the defense. In the past two seasons, USC has ranked 106 (2022) and 119 (2023) in total defense. If the Trojans' defense doesn't improve, Michigan could win easily if it can slow down Miller Moss. But if USC somehow finds a defense, the Wolverines could have a game on their hands in Ann Arbor.

3. Texas (home)

Texas Longhorns quarterback Quinn Ewers (3) sends a pass down the field during the Sugar Bowl College Football Playoff semi-finals at the Ceasars Superdome in New Orleans, Louisiana, Jan. 1, 2024. The Huskies won the game over the Texas Longhorns 37-31. / Sara Diggins/American-Statesman / USA TODAY NETWORK

A Week 2 showdown could forecast Michigan's 2024 season. If the Wolverines beat Texas, Michigan will have all kinds of hype surrounding it by the national media. But if the Wolverines lose -- they are an underdog as of now -- the national media will be casting doubts upon the Wolverines. Michigan will have its hands full with one of the best quarterbacks in college football. The key in this game will be the Wolverines' defense against the Texas' offense.

2. Ohio State (away)

Michigan running back Donovan Edwards (7) runs for a touchdown against Ohio State during the second half at Ohio Stadium in Columbus, Ohio, on Saturday, Nov. 26, 2022. Syndication The Indianapolis Star / Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK

You can make an argument to put Ohio State in the No. 1 spot and while it very well could be, I put more stock in Michigan going to Columbus and beating Ohio State than the Wolverines beating Oregon (my No. 1 team). Michigan has beat the Buckeyes in three straight seasons and everyone on Michigan's roster only knows beating OSU. All the pressure is on Ryan Day's shoulders this season and while I have predicted the Buckeyes beating Michigan, it wouldn't shock me to see Michigan make it four straight.

1. Oregon (home)

Jan 1, 2024; Glendale, AZ, USA; Oregon Ducks wide receiver Tez Johnson (15) celebrates with offensive lineman Steven Jones (74) and tight end Patrick Herbert (88) after scoring a touchdown against the Liberty Flames during the second half in the 2024 Fiesta Bowl at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports / Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

I've predicted Oregon to go undefeated this season -- you can see my Big Ten predictions below -- so of course the Ducks have to go No. 1 here. I think the Ducks have the full package to make noise in the Big Ten and on the national front. Oregon went out and landed both Dillon Gabriel (Oklahoma) and wide receiver Evan Stewart (Texas A&M) via the portal. The offense should be elite and Oregon's defense is no slouch. While Michigan has the advantage of being in Ann Arbor, this game will not come easy for the defending national champions.

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