Three keys to a Michigan football victory over Michigan State

Trent Knoop | Oct 23, 2024

Nick King/Lansing State Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK

Back in January, following Michigan's national championship, not many people thought the Wolverines could have struggles beating rival Michigan State in 2024 -- well maybe Spartan fans thought it was a possibility. Even after spring, Michigan would've entered the game as big favorites. But as Michigan State week dwindles down, there is certainly a chance Michigan State pulls off the upset in year one of the Jonathan Smith era.

The Wolverines have thrashed MSU the past two years and Michigan has been dominant doing so. But after a 4-3 start and three different starting quarterbacks, but the Wolverines are a far cry from what they have been. Coming off of a bye week, the Wolverines looked worse. MSU, on the other hand, looked great against Iowa coming off of its bye.

It's important for Sherrone Moore and Michigan to get the win and to keep Paul Bunyan in Ann Arbor. Here are three keys for the maize and blue to do so.

1. Get back to your identity and run the football

Inexplicably, Michigan wanted to 'prove' it could throw the football against Illinois last weekend. In the first series -- when the Wolverines went three-and-out -- Michigan threw the ball twice and ran it once, without Kalel Mullings on the field. The Wolverines found itself down quickly and Michigan ended up attempting 32 passes against the Illini.

Passing the football clearly isn't something the Wolverines should want to do. But running the football, with Mullings and a mix of Donovan Edwards, is something they should do. Michigan State has done well against the pass, but it's not great against the run. The Spartans have the 53rd-ranked run defense allowing 131 yards per game on the ground. In the past three games against Ohio State, Oregon, and Iowa, MSU has allowed over five yards per carry in each of those games.

Michigan needs to lean on its identity and just keep running the football until Michigan State stops you. Live and die on the ground. Because Michigan has been dying through the air and Tuttle, the likely starter, has been as turnover-prone as anyone. Don't force the pass, use play-action off of the run, and make MSU stop it.

2. Make Aidan Chiles beat you with his arm

Chiles, the Oregon State transfer, is a solid, dual-threat quarterback. Chiles is electric when he can take off and run the football. With sack-adjusted numbers, Chiles has run for 242 yards and three touchdowns, averaging over five yards per carry.

But the young Chiles has a couple of issues. Like most of the Michigan quarterbacks, he is very turnover-prone. Not only does he have nine interceptions on the year, but Chiles also has four fumbles. There has only been one game in which Chiles was turnover-free and that came against Prairie View A&M.

Looking more in-depth, it appears Chiles has a turnover issue due to being pressured. Pro Football Focus has MSU having the 131st-ranked pass-blocking team in the country. With that in mind, when Chiles is pressured, he not only has a 29.7 offensive grade, but he has thrown seven of his interceptions when he's been under duress.

With how much he's been pressured this season, Michigan needs to clearly sustain pressure against Chiles. But not allowing him to take off and beat you on the ground will also be pivotal. Using a spy, making Chiles stay in the pocket, get him looking over his shoulder, will all bode well for the Wolverines on Saturday night.

3. Stop turning the ball over for crying out loud

I just hit on the Michigan State turnover woes, and now it's time to talk about Michigan's. The Wolverines, and Spartans, have lost 15 turnovers this season and Michigan has an abysmal -7 turnover margin through seven games.

Fumbles have been their own issue, but decision-making from the quarterbacks sure has been the main one. Between Davis Warren, Alex Orji, and Jack Tuttle, Michigan has nine interceptions on the year. Every game this year the Wolverines have turned the ball over and in all but one game Michigan has thrown at least one interception.

Michigan State has eight turnovers forced this season, so it's not like the Spartans have done a great job of forcing turnovers. Their defense isn't likely going to go out there and make it happen, but Michigan has shown it's more than capable of turning the ball over on its own doing. Whoever starts at quarterback -- likely going to be Tuttle -- just has to be better. It's really that simple. Protect the football and make wise decisions.

In football, if you can win the turnover battle you have a much larger chance of winning and that's truly hindering Michigan in 2024.

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