Bowling Green Week: Three Keys To A Michigan Football Win

Michigan will close its non-conference slate with BGSU and the Wolverines are favored to win big, again. Here's what Michigan needs to do in order to make it a reality.

Entering Week 3, Michigan will finish up its non-conference slate against Bowling Green on Saturday. This will be the third time the two teams have met, and the Wolverines hold a 2-0 series lead against the Falcons. 

Michigan is currently favored to win the contest by 40.5 points, and this is the third straight game the Wolverines have been highly favored, but the maize and blue have not covered the spread so far. 

While Michigan should win big against the 1-1 BGSU team, here are three keys to make sure the Wolverines not only win big but cover the spread as well. 

1. Get the ground game rolling for Big Ten play

This is a more season-specific key, but it still can have a major role in this Bowling Green game on Saturday. 

The Michigan passing game has been rolling and at an elite level. J.J. McCarthy is the most accurate thrower in all of college football after two weeks and Roman Wilson is looking more and more like a true No. 1 wide receiver. 

But the Michigan running game looks nowhere close to where it was a season ago, or even two years ago. The Wolverines have the 75th rushing offense in the country and in 2022 they were the No. 5 run offense in the nation. Michigan is averaging 4.7 yards per run and in 2022 it averaged 5.5 yards per run. 

Mike Hart, Jim Harbaugh, and Sherrone Moore have all emphasized that blocking and vision need to be improved and it's something that will be worked on in practice.

If Michigan is going to fix its run issues, then this is the game to do it. Bowling Green is one of the worst run defenses in football through two weeks, it's ranked 102nd in the country allowing 160.5 yards per game on the ground. Pro Football Focus ranks the Falcons as having the 74th-best run defense. 

Big Ten play begins next week and it feels like a necessity to get the Michigan run game back and rolling heading into conference games. It wouldn't be shocking to see the Wolverines really emphasize that on Saturday. 

2. Contain the BGSU pass rush

Obviously, Bowling Green hasn't played anyone too frightening yet. The Falcons are one of the better pass-rush teams in the country when you look at the statistics. They have seven sacks in two games and are ranked 18th in the country. Per PFF, Bowling Green has the No. 8 pass rush and has an 80.8 grade.

But, the level of competition is not high. BGSU has played Liberty and Eastern Illinois -- neither are on the same playing field as Michigan. But BGSU has some confidence when it comes to rushing the passer. Seven different players have at least a .5 sack and three players are tied with 1.5 sacks on the season. 

Michigan has yet to allow a sack and is ranked 15th by PFF on pass blocking. It sounds like the Wolverines are set with their starting five on the O-line, and while there is a need for some improvement when it comes to run blocking, the pass blocking has been superb.  

Bowling Green is a terrible run-defensive team, a not-very-good pass-defense team, and the only thing the Falcons have been good at defensively is getting to the quarterback. As long as Michigan can shut that down, then the Wolverines may be able to do whatever they want against the Bowling Green defense. 

3. Don't let Connor Bazelak gain confidence

If Connor Bazelak sounds familiar that is because he is very familiar with the Big Ten. Bazelak started for Missouri for a couple of seasons before transferring to Indiana in 2022 and started for the Hoosiers, now he is with Bowling Green. 

Bazelak has had a turnover problem for the past four seasons, but he has the capability of slinging the rock. He has thrown between 2,300-to-2,500 yards in the past three seasons, but again -- he can become a turnover machine. 

So far this season, the Indiana transfer has thrown for 390 yards, three touchdowns, and three interceptions in two games. 

The Bowling Green offense is sort of like the Michigan offense in that it wants to be as balanced as possible. The Falcons have run the ball 65 times and thrown the ball 61 times in 2023. But with as stout as the Michigan run defense has been this season, it's hard to imagine Bowling Green being able to run the ball efficiently, so the Falcons may be forced to throw it often. 

Bazelak has played in some big stadiums since he played in the SEC and Big Ten, so playing in the Big House probably won't be too intimidating for him. The Michigan secondary has forced one interception this season, and with the Wolverines possibly getting Rod Moore, Makari Pagie, and Will Johnson all on the field together on Saturday, Michigan has a chance to really make some noise. 

Between getting a good pass rush on Bazelak and forcing one or two turnovers, if Michigan can get Bazelak off-key Saturday night, then Bowling Green might not have too much of an offense either.