Michigan Football: Explosive Offense Or Methodical At Illinois?

Michigan should have a chance to find its downfield passing attack and establish a running game that has been MIA. What else can fans look forward to in Saturday's matchup at Illinois? We take a look.

TNT: Michigan’s offense continues to struggle scoring points for a myriad of reasons, but contributing significantly is that the Wolverines are neither a big-play offense nor capable of being a methodical offense. As the Maize and Blue seek to find a groove offensively, they should decide on one or the other.

Going methodical is probably not the answer.

Among 18 total offensive touchdowns this season, U-M has just eight TD drives of eight plays or more. The Wolverines are simply making too many mistakes, from their quarterback to wide receivers, offensive linemen and running backs, to be able to sustain drives that require consistency down after down.

Michigan also isn’t a big-play offense. U-M ranks 75 nationally and ninth in the Big Ten with 23 plays of 20 yards or more, an average of 4.6 per game. Oklahoma, which ranks first in college football, averages 10 explosive plays per contest.

The Maize and Blue still possess the potential, thanks to a receiving corps that hasn’t become any less talented as the season has unfolded, to be a big-play offense.

And in fact, U-M has at times, with nine touchdown drives of five plays or fewer, getting down the field quickly as the Wolverines have utilized 6-4 junior wideout Nico Collins (grabs of 28, 32, 48 and 51 yards) and 6-3 junior receiver Tarik Black (catches of 20, 22, 32 and 36 yards).

If Michigan is to gamble what type of offense it needs to be this year, it can either try to develop consistency snap to snap from an offense that, thus far, has had too many missed assignments across the board – that is the most alarming part, it’s not just one or two guys that can be subbed out but to a man, just about every key player is making three or more mistakes per game – or it can throw the ball down field, going for the big play and hoping to score in five plays or less.

Of course, we’ve been saying the latter for weeks now and Michigan doesn’t get it: the Maize and Blue had just two pass attempts of 20 yards or more against Iowa, completing both (for 20 and 51 yards). They also haven’t had a 20-yard rush since Week 1 against Middle Tennessee.

But Illinois once again presents a perfect opportunity to find confidence in the deep passing game: the Fighting Illini rank 112th in long passing plays allowed, surrendering 23 or an average of 4.6 completions of 20 yards or more per contest.

Find A Ground Attack: I won't rehash everything about the anemic running game here (largely because I already wrote that article earlier in the week) but if the Wolverines don't establish a ground game this weekend, when will they? The short answer: probably never. 

No other opponent on Michigan's schedule is as poor against the run as Illinois, who rank 98th nationally in allowing 183.2 yards per game. After this weekend, U-M will face off against rush defenses that rank third, 61st, 35th, 22nd, 48th and ninth in college football. 

The Fighting Illini surrendered 346 yards and 5.4 yards per carry to Nebraska three weeks ago and then allowed 332 yards and 6.4 yards per rush to Minnesota last Saturday. 

Both those offenses are more capable on the ground than Michigan but they are far from dynamic: the Cornhuskers averaged 166.4 yards rushing in their other five games and 4.1 yards per carry while the Golden Gophers averaged 115.8 yards rushing per game and 2.6 yards per carry in their four other games. 

Playing Illinois, Nebraska saw an uptick of 180 yards rushing and 1.3 yards per rush while Minnesota saw an increase of 216 yards and 3.8 yards per carry. 

Michigan is currently averaging 128.4 yards rushing and 3.5 yards per attempt. The Maize and Blue could definitely use the inherent boost the Illini provide. If it doesn't happen tomorrow in Champaign it's probably just not happening for the Wolverines this fall.  

More Of The Same Defensively: Michigan ranks 21st nationally in pass efficiency defense, allowing opposing QBs a 111.2 rating, as the Wolverines have allowed just two touchdown passes and have five interceptions. 

Iowa quarterback Nate Stanley's 92.47 passer rating was the second lowest by an opposing QB this season and the 23rd occasion during the Don Brown era in which a foe was held to below 100.0. A year ago, Michigan held eight teams to a pass efficiency rating below 100.0. In 2017, it was six. In 2016, it was seven. 

What was different about the game last week was the consistency in which Brown employed zone coverage, an element to his defensive approach that had been missing in 2016, '17 and '18, and was exposed by Ohio State last season. 

U-M can "out-athlete" Illinois tomorrow and could run man-to-man the entire game without getting burned, but that's not the point - this defense can use every opportunity it gets to rep its zone coverage so when the Wolverines travel to Penn State next week they are best prepped to utilize multiple schemes. 

Up front, Michigan would love more of the same … another eight-sack effort. That's an unrealistic number - despite being one of the top 10 defenses in college football from 2016-18, U-M last hit the eight-sack total against Ohio State in 2016. 

In other words, it's not done very often. 

Still, a day in which the front seven can harass Illinois' QB Matt Robinson, expected to start for an injured Brandon Peters, should lead to another dominant performance by the Michigan defense.