'Unintended Consequences': How the 12-team playoff could impact College Football

This new version of the College Football Playoff is providing plenty to be excited about, but there's also the chance that it could lead to some unintended consequences.

Jan 8, 2024; Houston, TX, USA; Michigan Wolverines offensive coordinator Sherrone Moore against the Washington Huskies during the 2024 College Football Playoff national championship game at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports / Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

The College Football Playoff is going to look much, much different in 2024. Over the last 10 years, the playoff has featured a four-team format that led to six different teams claiming a National Championship - Michigan, Georgia, Alabama, LSU, Clemson, and Ohio State. But the expansion from 4 to 12 teams this season is expected to add a significant level of intrigue for fans and teams who traditionally had no shot at participating in the playoff under the previous format.

Michigan defensive lineman Kenneth Grant (78) celebrates a sack on Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr. (9) in the second quarter during the College Football Playoff national championship game against Washington at NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas on Monday, January 8, 2024. / Melanie Maxwell / USA TODAY NETWORK

Here's a look at some of the key changes to the new-look College Football Playoff:

1. The new 12-team format will include the 5 highest-ranked conference champions and 7 at-large bids.

2.The 4 highest-ranked conference champions will get a first-round bye

3. The remaining eight teams will play first-round games that will be hosted by higher seeds at campus sites

4. There's no limit to how many teams can make the playoff from the same conference

5. New Year's Six games will host quarterfinal and semifinal games (Rose Bowl, Sugar Bowl, Orange Bowl, Cotton Bowl, Peach Bowl, and Fiesta Bowl)

But while the new format has created plenty of excitement, there are some who think that it could carry some unintended consequences when it comes to player decisions. The latest head coach to voice that concern was Clemson's Dabo Swinney.

"It's going to become all about the players, which is fine," Swinney said. "But I think there's probably unintended consequences for that too. You'll probably see some guys that, if you're 4-4 and probably out of the playoff, probably see some guys head off to Arizona to train. Maybe you're 11-0 and you got that rivalry game. But, oh, you play your biggest foe the next week in the conference championship, and if you win that game you're going to get a BYE. You know, so those are things and decisions that you'll probably see play out all throughout college football.

Regardless of what you think about Swinney, the concern is valid. We've already seen players making business decisions when it comes to making the decision to play in a "meaningless bowl game" or to save their body for the NFL, and it stands to reason that missing an expanded playoff could only lead to more of those decisions from those who are left out. Another scenario that Swinney highlighted is how players might view that final game of the regular season vs. making sure they're healthy enough to compete in a conference championship the following week that is far more consequential to the season. These are scenarios that we see play out in the NFL frequently, where guys opt to save their bodies for the playoffs if they already know they're in.

Coach Nick Saban and coach Dabo Swinney meet the media at the JW Marriott Scottsdale Camelback Inn Resort & Spa Sunday, January 10, 2016. Saban and Swinney talk together briefly after the conclusion of the media event. Staff Photo | Gary Cosby Jr. / Gary Cosby Jr./Tuscaloosa News / USA

Legendary head coach Nick Saban, who's now taken on the role of college football analyst, also shared his thoughts on the expanded playoff this week at SEC Media Days. Although Saban says it will be good for the fans, he did voice at least one concern he has about the new format.

"I think that... I hope that we can take into consideration strength of schedule," Saban said. "I use the example of Florida going 9-9 in the SEC in baseball and almost winning a World Series. There's a lot of great teams in the SEC, so strength of schedule is really important. I do think that the expanded playoff is going to be great for fans. When we had a four team playoff, you only had maybe seven or eight teams that were... their fan base was really excited at the end of the season to see if they got in the playoff. Now you're going to have 25 or 30 fan bases that are excited to see who gets into the playoff.

"The downside of it is, I just wish that we could put the 12 best teams in the playoff. Not worry about conference champions and all that kind of stuff. If you do get beat in the conference championship game and you're one of the best teams, you still should get in there because you've played really quality opponents and you've played good football. So, that's my only concern about it. I just want to see the best 12 teams in it, and I think most people want to see the best 12 teams in it."

As far as whether or not the new format makes it more difficult to win a National Championship in college football, Saban says it will be harder to do it now than it ever has before.

"Well I think it's going to be much more difficult. You're going to have to play more games. We won some championships when it was a one game playoff. It was harder when there were two games in the playoff, plus the SEC Championship to get in. So it's going to be much more difficult now. Potentially could play 17 games. We played 15 games several times and that's a lot of games for players to sustain the level of intensity they need to be successful and play at a high-level. Depth of your team is going to be important, sustainability of your team is going to be important - which comes from maturity. It's going to be more difficult than it ever has been to win a National Championship."

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