Updated FPI projects the rest of Michigan's season

Trent Knoop | Sep 9, 2024

Michigan celebrates the touchdown by running back Donovan Edwards (7) during the 1st quarter against Fresno State at Michigan Stadium at Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor on Saturday, Aug. 31, 2024. / Kimberly P. Mitchell/Detroit Free Press / USA TODAY NETWORK

Following a 31-12 loss, the Wolverines have found themselves slipping in both the AP Poll and Coaches Poll, along with any power rankings you can find. But how does Michigan fare looking at advanced analytics?

ESPN updated its Football Power Index following Week 2 action. The Wolverines moved down to No. 17, according to the FPI. The Wolverines are now projected to finish the season 7.2-4.9 and have an 11.2% chance of making the College Football Playoff. The FPI also says Michigan has less than a 1% chance to make it to the National Championship Game.

What is the FPI? "The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season," ESPN says. "FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily. FPI data from seasons prior to 2019 may not be complete."

Sep 7, 2024; Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA; Michigan Wolverines quarterback Davis Warren (16) looks to pass in the first half against the Texas Longhorns at Michigan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images / Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images

Updated game-by-game projections

Aug. 31 vs. Fresno State (FPI rank: 81st): 30-10 W
Sept. 7 vs. Texas (1st): 31-12 L
Sept. 14 vs. Arkansas St. (100th): 92.5% chance of a win
Sept. 21 vs. USC (8th): 44.4% chance of a win
Sept. 28 vs. Minnesota (56th): 77.3% chance of a win
Oct. 5 at Washington (22nd): 45.1% chance of a win
Oct. 19 at Illinois (52nd): 68.4% chance of a win
Oct. 26 vs. Michigan State (66th): 82.3% chance of a win
Nov. 2 vs. Oregon (13th): 55.1% chance of a win
Nov. 9 at Indiana (26th): 52.7% chance of a win
Nov. 23 vs. Northwestern (70th): 85.8% chance of a win
Nov. 30 at Ohio State (4th): 13.6% chance of a win

Michigan is now underdogs to USC, Washington, and Ohio State following its 1-1 start. Surprisingly, the Wolverines are favored to win at home against Oregon. The Ducks have looked less than impressive to start the season. Oregon went wire-to-wire with both FCS Idaho and had to kick a game-winning field goal in order to beat Boise State.

What might even be more shocking than Michigan being favored to beat Oregon, is that the game at Indiana is just about a 50/50 toss. The Wolverines have a 52.7% chance to beat IU, a team that is hot to start the young season. But we will know more about the Hoosiers when Big Ten play begins.

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