247Sports' Josh Pate asks 'What if Michigan goes 8-4' in 2024?

Would a 'bigger than expected dropoff' from the Wolverines' national championship-winning season be a cause for concern?

Matt Lounsberry | Jul 5, 2024

Jan 8, 2024; Houston, TX, USA; Michigan Wolverines offensive coordinator Sherrone Moore against the Washington Huskies during the 2024 College Football Playoff national championship game at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports / Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

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Michigan Wolverines

Coming off the program's first national championship in 26 years, Michigan is standing at the mountain top of college football. The Wolverines are enjoying a mini "golden age" after three consecutive Big Ten titles and three straight wins over Ohio State before reaching the pinnacle with that national title.

Even with the loss of head coach Jim Harbaugh and a hoard of impact players to the NFL, expectations and excitement remain high in Ann Arbor.

Last weekend, 247Sports' college football podcast host Josh Pate asked 'what if Michigan gets high-level quarterback play' in 2024? On Tuesday, Pate went in the other direction and asked, essentially, what if the Wolverines go 8-4 this fall?

"It bears repeating that Michigan had a pretty historic year last year, and then you had a historic head coach hit the door and you had historic players hit the exit door," Pate said. "You're looking at your preview magazines right now and Michigan is highly rated. Michigan is one of the odds-on favorites to contend for the Big Ten championship. They are one of the odds-on favorites to make the College Football Playoff...Michigan figures to be in the mix this year.

"What if Michigan has a little more dropoff than is expected this year," Pate asked.

The podcast host pointed out that while an 8-4 season sounds like a bad year for the Wolverines, oddsmakers at FanDuel sportsbook have Michigan's over-under win total sat at 8.5 wins as of early July.

"You ask me, 'what if Michigan isn't quite as good as the fanbase hopes?' My response would be, that's just college football," Pate said.

While others may point to a four-loss season as an indictment of new head coach Sherrone Moore, Pate pushed back against that suggestion as well.

"Remove Sherrone Moore from the equation for a second — if Jim Harbaugh were still there this year and you had the amount of impact players walk out the door that they had, I'd expect a Jim Harbaugh-led Michigan team to fall back to Earth a little bit this year," Pate said. "So, if that happens, I won't bat an eye at it."

During show prep prior to the podcast, Pate said one of his staffers asked, 'What if an 8-4 or 7-5 season impacts U-M's recruiting negatively?'

"To that I said, if an 8-4 season derails Michigan's recruiting class then they don't have the right staff recruiting up there — and I think they've got the right staff recruiting," Pate said. "It's felt pretty good, and they have the ability — with months [until National Signing Day] — to improve on this cycle."

Pate went on to explain that programs with good recruiting staffs who fail to meet expectations on the field can turn that failure into an advantage on the recruiting trail.

"That normally works on an inverse manner," he said. "If you struggle on the field but you've got premier resources and you've got a half-decent staff, they can sell play playing time, they can sell opportunity, they can sell vision and future and what not. I highly doubt an 8-4 season would damage Michigan's recruiting profile at all. But, if it did, that would be a bigger implication that we've got issues than just the fact that they went 8-4."

Pate then pointed to Michigan's schedule, which features games against Texas, Oregon and Ohio State (all likely to be preseason Top 5 teams), as well as a home game against USC and road trip to Washington.

"There are several losable games here. 8-4 is not some crazy year. If Michigan hits the under...it's not the end of the world."

Michigan may be one of the biggest 'question mark' teams in the country heading into 2024. Pate has suggested the Wolverines could be in the hunt to repeat as national champions if their eventual starting quarterback puts together a high-level season, and he's also suggested an 8-4 record wouldn't be a surprise.

The fact of the matter is it's going to take multiple years with Moore leading this program before we know the caliber of program Michigan will be under his leadership. A double-digit win season would suggest the Wolverines haven't missed a beat while transitioning from Harbaugh to Moore. With that said, even a bigger step back in 2024 shouldn't be viewed as cause for concern in and of itself.

The full segment of 'Late Kick with Josh Pate' referenced in this article can be viewed in the video below:

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