Game Predictions: No. 17 Michigan vs. Arkansas State

Game previews, bold predictions and final score predictions for Michigan football's Week 3 matchup with Arkansas State!

Matt Lounsberry | Sep 13, 2024

The Wolverines look to bounce back following their lopsided loss to Texas last weekend /

Coming off a 31-12 loss to No. 2 Texas last Saturday, No. 17 Michigan looks to right the ship this weekend when it welcomes Arkansas State (Noon ET / BTN) to the Big House in Week 3. It will be the first ever meeting between the Wolverines and the Red Wolves on the football field.

Arkansas State (2-0) enters the game unbeaten with wins over Central Arkansas (34-31) and Tulsa (28-24) to start their 2024 campaign. The Red Wolves are led offensively by redshirt freshman quarterback Jaylen Raynor, who has thrown for 572 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions while completing 57% of his throws this season. The quarterback also leads his team in rushing with 122 yards and two touchdowns on 34 carries.

Michigan (1-1) is a 23-point favorite coming into this matchup, and the Wolverines will look to get a sluggish offense up and running this week against a susceptible Arkansas State defense. Through two weeks, the Red Wolves are allowing 397 yards of total offense per game, which ranks 100th in the nation (out of 134 FBS teams). With the facts and statistics out of the way, Michigan Wolverines On SI editor Chris Breiler, senior writer Trent Knoop and contributing writer Matt Lounsberry share their thoughts on the game below with Two Bold Predictions, Game Previews, and Final Score Predictions.

Chris’ Two Bold Predictions

1. Jack Tuttle asserts himself as QB1

It sounds like the seventh year veteran is healthy and I have a feeling we'll see him in action on Saturday. Current starter Davis Warren has looked alright through two weeks, but there are definitely some deficiencies in his game. If Tuttle can come out of the gate with a strong showing this weekend, he'll likely become QB1 for the remainder of the season.

2. Michigan defense allows just two third down conversions

The Michigan defense is one of the worst in the Big Ten conference through the first two weeks when it comes to third down conversion percentage. The Wolverines allowed the Longhorns to convert on 10-of-16 third down attempts last weekend, something that absolutely cannot happen moving forward. The success of this defense depends on Michigan's ability to win on third down, and I'm sure that's been a point of emphasis this week within Schembechler Hall.

Trent’s Two Bold Predictions

1. Donovan Edwards gains 100 yards of total offense

If Edwards doesn't have a good game, I don't think I'll be making anymore predictions based on the senior for the foreseeable future. The Red Wolves are allowing the opposition to gain 199 yards on the ground per game. Playing Central Arkansas and Tulsa is not the same level as Michigan and the Wolverines run offense needs to be dominant. If Edwards is ever going to get going, it's this game. Notice I said total offense, though. Michigan needs to get the ball into its playmakers hands and that means Edwards through the air as well.

2. Michigan plays three quarterbacks

While the coaching staff doesn't want to admit it, there has to be some sort of a quarterback battle happening. Full disclosure, I don't think Davis Warren is the huge problem. My gripe has been with how poor the offensive line has looked. But if you're the quarterback at Michigan, you have to play at a high level and the brunt of the blame will be handed down. Warren will play and so will Alex Orji -- to some extent. Orji might be used in the run, per usual. But if Jack Tuttle is fully healthy, I could see Tuttle seeing a tiny bit of action to see what he looks like in this offense with USC right around the corner

Matt’s Two Bold Predictions

1. Michigan eclipses 175 rushing yards

Over the past three seasons, this rushing total wouldn't be considered bold at all. However, the Wolverines have averaged just 114 rushing yards per game through the first two weeks, and have yet to show that dominance at the line of scrimmage that we've become accustomed to seeing. Arkansas State's defense affords Michigan the chance to flex those muscles once again, however. As mentioned above, the Red Wolves are allowing 199 rushing yards per game so far this season. I wouldn't be shocked to see the Wolverines eclipse 200 on the ground, but I think the offensive coaching staff is going to want to get Davis Warren more reps as a thrower in this one as well.

2. The Wolverines finish with zero turnovers

I expected last week to be an uphill battle for Michigan, and that was without knowing the Wolverines were going to turn the ball over three times. Put simply, this offense is not nearly explosive enough to overcome losing the TO battle by three, and that had to have been a point of emphasis in practice this week. I expect a much cleaner game from Michigan's offense against Arkansas State. The Wolverines will want to establish and lean on their run game, especially early, but the staff needs to let Warren let it rip a little bit too. He needs to build more chemistry with his targets, and the only way to get that is in-game reps.

Chris’ Preview, Score Prediction

Even with all of the issues that need to be worked through offensively, I think we'll see a better performance from the Wolverines in Week 3 compared to what we saw in Week 1. I also expect the Michigan defense to play inspired football after getting bullied by the Longhorns last weekend. I don't expect the Wolverines to light up the scoreboard, but I do think we'll see a much needed convincing win before No. 11 USC comes to town the following weekend.

Score Prediction: Michigan 34, Arkansas State 6

Trent’s Preview, Score Prediction

Fans are going to want to see Michigan put up 45-plus points against Arkansas State, but I hate to say it -- Michigan doesn't operate that way. Even when the Wolverines had the offense to put up 50 points against low-level competition, they wouldn't. Michigan would be happy to win a football game 10-0 if it could. Looking past the score, the eye test will mean everything in this game. How does the offensive line look? Are they dominating an overmatched Red Wolves' defensive line? Is the defense performing the way it should against Arkansas State? Is the defense aggressive, flying around, and in good position? Those are the questions that need answered and if the answer is a resounding yes, fans could feel a little better heading into USC week.

Score Prediction: Michigan 38, Arkansas State 7

Matt’s Preview, Score Prediction

I have little doubt that Michigan will win this game relatively easy, but I don't have a strong feel on a final score or whether or not the Wolverines will cover the spread. U-M has to be able to run the ball in this one against a bad defense, or their in for a long, long season. I think we'll see a healthy dose of Donovan Edwards, Kalel Mullings and likely Benjamin Hall in this one, but I'm curious to see how the staff handles the quarterbacks. If Warren is the guy, he needs reps. If Alex Orji is going to continue to play, let him do more than just come in for a third down run.

On the other side of the ball, Arkansas State ranks in the Top 40 nationally in passing offense, so I'm anxious to see how Michigan's secondary performs. The Wolverines should be able to generate a pass rush throughout the game, which could mask some of the issues we've seen in U-M's pass coverage over the past two weeks. I'm going to take the Wolverines to cover the spread by the slimmist of margins.

Score Prediction: Michigan 34, Arkansas State 10

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