Breaking Down Spartans' Home Matchup Against Penn State

The Michigan State Spartans prepare for another tough Big Ten battle on Wednesday as they host the Penn State Nittany Lions at the Breslin Center. This is a much more even matchup than many anticipate with strong scorers on both sides.
Michigan State's Jaxon Kohler, right, celebrates with teammates Carson Cooper, center, and Gehrig Normand, left, after a MSU score and Nebraska timeout during the second half on Saturday, Dec. 7, 2024, at the Breslin Center in East Lansing.
Michigan State's Jaxon Kohler, right, celebrates with teammates Carson Cooper, center, and Gehrig Normand, left, after a MSU score and Nebraska timeout during the second half on Saturday, Dec. 7, 2024, at the Breslin Center in East Lansing. / Nick King/Lansing State Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The No. 12 Michigan State Spartans (14-2) have been red hot since Thanksgiving and are seeking their 10th-straight victory and sixth-straight to start Big Ten play. They will host the Penn State
Nittany Lions (12-5) on Wednesday night at the Breslin Center in what should be a dogfight.

The Spartans will be led by senior guard Jaden Akins, who has been absolutely unbelievable these past few weeks. He just reached the 1,000-point club on Sunday, scoring 14 points in a road win over Northwestern, and he looks to extend his double-digit scoring streak to eight games.

Redshirt freshman guard Jeremy Fears Jr. has been the epitome of a floor general recently and is peaking at the perfect time. Fears has 39 assists over his last five games and is leading the team at 6.4 assists per game.

With the Spartans ranked just outside the top 10 and Penn State being an unranked team, many would assume that the matchup heavily favors Michigan State. That does not seem to be the case when looking at the numbers as both teams are fairly similar in several categories.

Both programs rank inside the top 10 in the conference in points per game with the Nittany Lions holding the slight advantage of 84.4 points per game compared to the 81.3 from the Spartans. High -percentage scoring with fast pace are characteristics of both programs this season.

Their field goal percentages are nearly identical, ranking eighth (Michigan State) and fifth (Penn State) in the Big Ten, respectively. Penn State has been just a bit more efficient this season at 48.6% while the Spartans are shooting it at a 47.8% clip.

One area that heavily favors the Nittany Lions is their 3-point percentage. The Spartans are the Big Ten's worst team from beyond the arc, shooting 28.9% from downtown. Penn State has been much better this season at 33.5% which could pose issues for the Green and White.

On the defensive end, the Spartans are the third-best team in the Big Ten in terms of average points allowed per game (66.0). Penn State is allowing just a tad more at 70.6 points per game, a total that the Spartans should be able to take advantage of with a strong offensive performance.

Penn State is also allowing a large volume of high-percentage shots as it is the sixth-worst conference team in terms of opponent field goal percentage at 43.4%. The Spartans should be able to create open looks and if the execution is there, should be able to comfortably handle this defense.

If Michigan State wants to keep its Big Ten undefeated streak alive, it must focus on limiting two key players for this high-scoring Nittany Lions team, starting with senior guard Ace Baldwin Jr. The VCU transfer leads the team in points (13.9), assists (8.0) and steals (2.0) per game.

Baldwin is the centerpiece of the offense, scoring at a relatively high clip and distributing the ball effectively. He will work in tandem with 7-foot junior center Yanic Konan Niederhauser who has been a strong paint presence for the Nittany Lions this season.

Averaging 12.1 points, 6.6 rebounds, and 2.2 blocks per game, Niederhauser is a tough defender to score on and is even more impactful on offense, using the pick-and-roll with Baldwin and the supporting cast of guards. The Spartans' bigs must get a body on him and limit his production.

With both teams playing scoring efficiently with top 10 defenses, this game will shape up to be much closer than many expect. The home-court advantage of the Breslin may be just what the Spartans need to help them earn another big-time win in the most competitive conference in the nation.

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