A look at Michigan State's NCAA Tournament resume, with 'Selection Sunday' looming
With a loss to Purdue on Friday, Michigan State men’s basketball will now wait until ‘Selection Sunday’ to find out who its next opponent will be.
Projections from nearly every bracketologist have the Spartans safely in the NCAA Tournament, even after losing five of their last seven games. With conference tournaments coming to a close this weekend, there are still several potential bid-stealers who are still alive across the country. With that in mind, here is the resume Michigan State will present to the selection committee…
The Spartans finished with a 19-14 overall record, going 10-10 in Big Ten play and 1-1 in the conference tournament. MSU is No. 24 in the country in the NCAA’s NET rating, but has the worst record of any team in the Top 35. That can be credited to Michigan State’s strength of schedule, which head coach Tom Izzo always loads up in order to prepare his team for the NCAA tournament.
This season, the Spartans played several ranked, non-conference games against Arizona, Duke and Baylor at neutral sites. The losses to the Wildcats and Blue Devils did nothing to hurt Michigan State’s resume, and the win over the Bears was a huge boost for the Spartans. While MSU was competitive against top teams this season, it struggled to beat those opponents. The Spartans were 3-9 against Quad 1 teams.
In addition to Michigan State’s big win over Baylor, the Spartans also won a critical game against Illinois at home in February. However, MSU’s next best win and only other Quad 1 victory was against Indiana State early in the year. The Sycamores are another bubble team, but this head-to-head win has kept the Spartans ahead of Indiana State in bracketology projections. Many didn’t think about it in December, but that game could decide which one of them makes the NCAA tournament.
In past seasons, when Michigan State was atop the Big Ten, they had no problem beating most Quad 2 teams — usually high-end, mid-major programs and middle of the pack Power 6 programs. This year, the Spartans finished 6-5 against Quad 2 teams, including the season-opening loss to James Madison and end-of-season losses to Iowa, Ohio State and Indiana. The deciding factor in the majority of these games came down to how much players like Jaden Akins, Tre Holloman, and the frontcourt contributed. This quadrant will be looked at closely for bubble teams, not only determining who gets in, but also for seeding purposes.
Quad 3 and 4 opponents can only hurt teams, but the Spartans finished 10-0 in bottom half games this season. If other bubble teams have losses against teams in these quadrants, this could bump Michigan State ahead of them. One of the Spartans’ Quad 3 wins is against Horizon league champion Oakland, which has already punched its ticket to ‘the Big Dance.’
Right now, Michigan State is projected as a 10-seed in the NCAA tournament. The Spartans appear safely in the field of 16, and an arm’s length away from being in the “First Four” round in Dayton.
As conference tournaments start to wrap up, we’ll find out by the end of today if any more teams not projected to make the NCAA Tournament end up stealing a bid. Those results could see Michigan State drop to an 11-seed, but the Spartans are unlikely to be one of the “Last Four In”. Still, with the way MSU ended its season, there could be a long wait before the Spartans hear their name called.
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