Bracketology: Several Pitfalls Remain For Michigan State's Tournament Hopes
With their backs against the wall, Michigan State men’s basketball came up big on Saturday with a win against Illinois. With a 15-9 record, the Spartans still aren’t guaranteed to earn a NCAA Tournament bid, but beating the Fighting Illini helped their resume in a major way.
As head coach Tom Izzo looks to extend his streak to 26 consecutive tournament appearances, what does Michigan State need to do in the remainder of the season to solidify a spot in the ‘Big Dance’?
The Spartans have many different tournament projections depending on where you look, ranging from as high as a 8-seed to as low as an 11-seed playing in the First Four. Each of the major bracketology experts — ESPN's Joe Lunardi, Fox Sports' Mike Decourcy and CBS Sports' Jerry Palm — have MSU projected as a 9-seed. With nine losses already and not many resume-boosting opportunities remaining on the schedule, Michigan State isn’t going to shoot up the rankings. In fact, given their inconsistency this season, the Spartans are more likely to hurt their resume than add to it.
Michigan State only has two ranked wins this season, against Baylor and Illinois. In their seven remaining games, the Spartans’ only quality opponents left are Northwestern and No. 2 Purdue. Michigan State must win at least one of those two games along with the five other games to feel safely off the bubble and in the tournament field. Anything less and it will be up to the selection tournament committee, or MSU would have to win the Big Ten Tournament to earn an automatic bid.
Any loss to Penn State, Michigan, Iowa, Ohio State or Indiana could jeopardize the Spartans’ tournament chances. In the scenario MSU drops a game to two or more of those five teams, the Spartans would have to make a deep run in the Big Ten tournament, if not win it. The Big Ten Conference hasn’t been as strong this season as it’s been in years past, so wins count for less and losses hurt more.
In the past, the Big Ten has gotten eight to 10 NCAA tournament bids, but the league won’t get any more than six this season. In recent years, programs like Mayland, Michigan, Ohio State and Indiana have competed at the top of the conference, but have now plummeted. While Michigan State has also declined, the overall competition in the conference has hurt everyone’s strength of schedule.
If the Spartans were to go 7-0 in their remaining games, Michigan State could see itself as high as a 6-seed when their name is called on ‘Selection Sunday’. Six wins will get MSU safely in the tournament as a 8- or 9-seed, and five wins could see the Spartans land anywhere from a 10-seed to one of the first four teams out, depending on who the losses came against and how Michigan State fares in the Big Ten Tournament.
Against Illinois, Michigan State showed it can beat anyone in the country when this team comes together. If seniors Malik Hall and A.J. Hoggard can score consistently and minimize turnovers in the remaining seven games, the Spartans could be back on track. MSU’s senior leadership needs to step up and take control down the stretch in order to make a run in March.
Even with all the inconsistencies throughout the season, Michigan State still has most of their goals in front of them. The Spartans control their own destiny down the stretch of their regular season, and they’re still talented enough to win the Big Ten Tournament and make a run in the NCAA Tournament, with designs to get back to the Final Four.
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