Has Michigan State's Slow Start In 2023-24 Been Overblown?
Michigan State men’s basketball has not gotten off to the start they hoped for in 2023-24, both overall and in Big Ten Conference play. But are the Spartans in as much trouble as their record says they are?
MSU is 9-6 overall with a 1-3 mark in the Big Ten, currently tied for last place in the conference standings. It’s no secret head coach Tom Izzo likes to schedule a tough non-conference schedule every year, but this season’s was especially tough with matchups with James Madison, Duke, Arizona and Baylor, among others. Michigan State was ranked No. 4 in the preseason before falling completely out of NCAA Tournament projections after a 4-5 start. The Spartans have since rebounded, going 5-1 in their last six games, but have dug themselves a hole in the Big Ten standings.
Despite the slow start, MSU has a lot of basketball left to play and has shown they can compete against some of the best teams in the country. More tough matchups are coming soon, including tonight’s road game at No. 10 Illinois, but this team should be confident after its recent stretch of play and knowing they’ve faced fiercer competition this season than many of their future opponents.
Early losses to James Madison, Wisconsin and Nebraska brought about a sense of panic among the fansbase but, as the season has progressed, all three of these teams have exceeded expectations. James Madison was predicted to win the Sun Belt Conference before the season, and is off to a 14-1 start this season. No. 15 Wisconsin and Nebraska are also off to strong starts, with the Cornhuskers having just beaten No. 1 Purdue on Tuesday night.
Michigan State recently had its five-game winning streak broken at Northwestern, but the Wildcats are another team off to a surprisingly good start to their year. Like Nebraska, Northwestern also has a win over Purdue on its resume. Even in the loss to the Wildcats, the Spartans continued their improved shooting over the last month, and they’ve continued to rebound better as the season progresses — a factor in many of MSU’s early losses.
As for Michigan State’s other losses, both No. 8 Arizona and No. 11 Duke are highly-ranked opponents who will be national title contenders. The benefit the Spartans got from playing those two teams outweighs the sting of those defeats. The six opponents that have beaten Michigan State this season have combined for only 16 losses thus far (and 65 wins). Advanced metrics recognize the strength of MSU’s schedule, which is why the Spartans are currently No. 19 in the KenPom analytics rankings even with six losses.
Part of the reason analytics believe in Michigan State is the wins they’ve stacked so far this season. The Spartans have quality wins against No. 14 Baylor, Indiana State and Butler. The Bears currently are tied atop the Big 12 standings, which is considered the toughest conference in the country this season. The Sycamores are currently 13-2 with a good chance to make the NCAA tournament even if they don’t win the Missouri Valley Conference. The Bulldogs are a solid opponent, having gone 11-5 so far this year.
Michigan State is far from the only team that’s fallen short of expectations so far this men’s basketball season. A big road win tonight against No. 10 Illinois could get them back on schedule towards reaching those preseason goals and expectations this team had. The Fighting Illini present a huge challenge, especially in Champaign, but this is an opportunity for Michigan State to take another step towards getting back on track.
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