Predicting all 13 games of the 2022 Big Ten Tournament
The 2022 Big Ten Tournament tips off today, as the bottom four seeds of the conference battle to keep their season's alive.
To celebrate the occasion, and have a little fun with March Madness officially beginning, we decided to take a look at all of the matchups that the Big Ten Tournament will provide and give predictions on the outcomes of all 13 games.
Here's a reminder of the 2022 Big Ten Tournament bracket:
First Round: Wednesday, March 9
Game 1: (12) Northwestern vs. (13) Nebraska — 6 p.m. EST
The tournament gets started with the Wildcats and the Cornhuskers. Nebraska took up residence in the Big Ten's basement for the vast majority of the season, before surging to three consecutive wins to end the regular season. Even more surprising, the Huskers collected wins over Ohio State and Wisconsin during the stretch. With the three-game win streak, Nebraska leapfrogged Minnesota in the standings. The Cornhuskers are led by stud freshman Bryce McGowens, who's been excellent throughout the season. Northwestern probably has the better team top-to-bottom, and the Wildcats won both matchups between these teams in the regular season (87-63 and 77-65). However, Nebraska got hot at the right time and will have the best player on the court. I'll take the Huskers to win Round 3 between these clubs.
Game 2: (11) Penn State vs. (14) Minnesota — 25 min. after Game 1
Minnesota got off to a 10-1 start this season, but fell flat once Big Ten play began in earnest following the turn of the year. The Gophers went 3-15 in their last 18 games of the year. Penn State and Minnesota split the season series this year, with the Gophers winning in Minneapolis (76-70) and the Nittany Lions winning in State College (67-46). Penn State is coming in off a three-game losing streak, but they were a tough out for several of the teams atop the Big Ten standings this season. I like Penn State to advance.
Second Round: Thursday, March 10
Game 3: (8) Michigan vs. (9) Indiana — 11:30 a.m. EST
At one time, Indiana was safely in the projected field for the NCAA Tournament. That changed quickly when the Hoosiers began a free fall in February which resulted in a 2-7 record in Indiana's last seven games. Now, the Hoosiers are desperate for wins to get back on the right side of the bracket bubble. Meanwhile, Michigan spent the vast majority of their season below or on the bubble, but it appears the Wolverines have won enough games done the stretch to go dancing. Still, one can never be too certain. Michigan won the only matchup between these two teams in the regular season, an 80-62 victory in Bloomington. I expect this to be a tight battle throughout, but Michigan is playing better basketball right now, so they get the nod.
Game 4: (5) Iowa vs. (13) Nebraska — 25 min. after Game 3
I'm very tempted to go with Nebraska here, that's how good the Cornhuskers have looked in recent games. But it's hard to pick against Keegan Murray. Look for a high-scoring affair between these two teams in Nebraska gets through Round 1. Iowa won both matchups in the regular season, 98-75 in Iowa City and 88-78 in Lincoln. I expect the scoring margin to be to be closer to the second matchup, and I won't be shocked to see the Cornhuskers pull off the upset, but Murray is the reason I'm picking the Hawkeyes.
Game 5: (7) Michigan State vs. (10) Maryland — 6:30 p.m. EST
This is something of a scary matchup for the Spartans in the second round. Michigan State went 2-0 against the Terrapins this season, earning a tight 65-63 victory in College Park and a 77-67 decision in East Lansing. Still, the Spartans got off to an 18-1 start in that second game against Maryland, and watched a 22-point lead shrink down to three before Michigan State put the Terps away in the regular season finale. Maryland will have had three and a half days to ponder that loss in East Lansing ahead of this matchup. Michigan State is going to have to be sound defensively in this one, as the Terrapins can get hot in a hurry from the perimeter. I like the Spartans to prevail in another hotly contested game between the two clubs.
Game 6: (6) Ohio State vs. (11) Penn State — 25 min. after Game 5
Ohio State has a clear talent advantage here, and the Buckeyes beat Penn State twice this season — 76-64 in State College, 61-56 in Columbus. Yet, Ohio State comes into this game a little banged up, and as mentioned earlier, Penn State has been a thorn in the side of many teams this season. Still, with E.J. Liddell and Malaki Branham, I think the Buckeyes have too much star power in this matchup. Give me Ohio State.
Quarterfinals: Friday, March 11
Game 7: (1) Illinois vs. (8) Michigan — 11:30 p.m.
Of any of the top four seeds in the Big Ten Tournament, I think Illinois was the worst matchup for Michigan in the quarterfinals. The Fighting Illini have speed and shooting on the perimeter, and Kofi Cockburn will go toe-to-toe with Hunter Dickinson in the post. Illinois beat the Wolverines in Champaign, 68-53, when Michigan was missing Dickinson, and the Illini came to Ann Arbor and won again against a full-strength Michigan, 93-85. I like Illinois to make it 3-0 against the Wolverines should Michigan get past Indiana.
Game 8: (4) Rutgers vs. (5) Iowa — 25 min. after Game 7
Rutgers won the only matchup between these two in the regular season — a 48-46 rock fight in Piscataway. It's almost unfathomable that the Hawkeyes were held below 50 points. This was the Hawkeyes lowest scoring output of the season, and one of only two times that they were held below 60 points. The Scarlet Knights proved they can beat anybody this season, gathering wins over the likes of Purdue, Wisconsin, Illinois, Ohio State and others. Still, I can't imagine Iowa's offense to be held down like that again and, once again, the Hawkeyes will have the best player on the floor in Keegan Murray. I like Iowa to advance to the semifinals.
Game 9: (2) Wisconsin vs. (7) Michigan State — 6:30 p.m. EST
This is an intriguing potential matchup in the quarterfinals. Looking at the seeding of the two teams, you'd expect there to be a significant gap between the two programs, but I don't think there is. The Spartans and Badgers split games this season, with each team winning on their opponent's home floor. Wisconsin has the best player on the floor in Johnny Davis, but the star wing took a big shot against Nebraska in the Badgers' regular season finale, and his status is unclear. I expect Davis will play, but will he be at 100 percent? For whatever reason, I have stronger convictions that the Spartans will win this game against the Badgers than I have about MSU beating Maryland the day before. If the Spartans get by the Terps, I expect them to beat Wisconsin too and reach the semifinals.
Game 10: (2) Purdue vs. (6) Ohio State — 25 min after Game 9
As a general rule, I don't trust the Boilermakers in tournament settings. For whatever reason, Purdue's style of play under Matt Painter has not lent itself well to tournament formats. With that said, I like the Boilermakers in this matchup. Ohio State went toe-to-toe with Purdue at Mackey Arena back on Jan. 30 in an 81-78 victory for the Boilers. That's no small feat, and the Buckeyes are certainly capable of winning this game, but Ohio State isn't as healthy or deep as they were at that time. Purdue advances.
Semifinals: Saturday, March 12
Game 11: (1) Illinois vs. (5) Iowa — 1 p.m. EST
These two clubs played in a thriller to end the regular season, with the Fighting Illini prevailing 74-72 in Champaign. It was a great encore to another barn-burner the two teams had in Iowa City early in the season, with Illinois pulling out an 87-83 win. With that in mind, we'd love to get another matchup between the Hawkeyes and Fighting Illini on Saturday. Should that happen, it's payback time for Iowa. There's no reason to expect anything but another high-scoring, back-and-forth war between these two, but this time the Hawkeyes pull it out.
Game 12: (2) Purdue vs. (7) Michigan State — 25 min. after Game 11
Michigan State already proved they could beat the Boilermakers this season, when Tyson Walker's last second three-pointer gave the Spartans a 68-65 win in East Lansing. You can be sure that Purdue hasn't forgotten about that game though, and the Boilers would probably be thrilled to get a rematch with Michigan State in the Big Ten Tournament. If the Spartans defend the way they did that day at the Breslin Center, they can go toe-to-toe with Purdue again, but I like the Boilermakers to win the rematch.
Championship Game: Sunday, March 13
Game 13: (2) Purdue vs. (5) Iowa — 3:30 p.m.
It's Purdue and Iowa for the 2022 Big Ten Tournament championship. The Boilermakers beat the Hawkeyes twice this season — 77-70 in West Lafayette, 83-73 in Iowa City. Both of these teams are offensively-driven clubs who have struggled to defend, so expect a lot of fireworks. Keegan Murray is still the best player on the floor, but Zach Edey and Trevion Williams provide a tough matchup in the interior for Iowa. Oh, and don't forget about Big Ten first teamer Jaden Ivey for the Boilermakers. This game can go either way, but I think Purdue makes it 3-0 against Iowa to win the Big Ten Tournament.
