Scouting Report and Prediction: Taking a Closer Look at the New Mexico State Aggies…

 

Will the Spartans set aside distractions and follow their future Hall of Fame coach to March glory? Photo courtesy of Mark Boomgaard.

 

Earlier in the season when the Spartans lost to Florida, some fans started bemoaning the Spartans. At the time Spartan Nation said, “People get all upset, but come tournament time the reason for Izzo’s success is that you never know what obscure team you will face and he wants to have tape and experience for his guys to see against every system.” 

 

Now you know why. NMSU plays very similar to Florida. According to Izzo they are “More athletic, but not as big,” as Florida. Either way, the Spartans do have at least something to base their expectations off of having played a similar system.

 

The Aggies are a team that can score. They are not a team committed to the defense like those that have stopped the Spartans this season. Minnesota played tough against MSU, but the Aggies defense doesn’t even compare. The Gophers actually play it and the Aggies are on the court, but non-existent on that side of the ball. They do press, but it is more of an offensive weapon and once it is broken the D disappears. That is a major plus for the Spartans.

 

The Aggies haven’t played a team that is committed defense like the Spartans when they are engaged. With the Aggies lack of commitment to the defensive side of the ball, would you expect them to all of a sudden develop a passion for it? Not likely.

 

A good friend of mine who works at NMSU described their teams approach to the old Arkansas Razorbacks forty minutes of hell, minus the defense. The Spartans won’t have any trouble running with the Aggies.

 

On offense…

Anyone can make the usual assumptions of MSU needs more rebounds and less turnovers. I won’t waste your time with the obvious. The Spartans will get their shots. They will be able to run. The Spartans will need their wings to be part of the equation to force some of the bigs for the Aggies out of the paint.

 

Anyone can say they need to hit shots that is about as insightful as, “They need to score more points.” I am not stating the obvious. The Spartans won’t have issues with scoring. They just have to keep the wings engaged so as to keep the paint open for drives. 

 

Balance is the word. They need to move inside and out and high to low so as to keep an Aggie team that isn’t good on defense guessing.

 

When a team isn’t committed to defense, if you allow your game to be one-dimensional you help them. It would be akin to playing a team in football who isn’t a defensive stalwart and running the ball every play allowing them to put 11 men in the box.

 

If the Spartans are balanced they will have a good night in the eighties or possibly even higher in points.

 

On defense…

The Aggies will run and gun. They are very good at that and use their defensive press as an offensive weapon. That is fine. There is no one in the nation faster than MSU and the Spartans can hang with them.

 

The Spartans will own the boards, as the Aggies against inferior competition were a –2.1 for the season in rebounding. Owning the boards plays into the Spartans hands and as long as the Spartans get back on defense they should be fine.

 

I am not worried about the Aggies hitting shots and scoring. They will. It is the nature of the game. The Spartans simply need to eliminate second chance points and that is the game set match.

 

Intangibles…

There is pure adrenaline from the Aggies right now. They are fired up and don’t care who they play. One of their best players, Jonathan Gibson said when asked about playing MSU, “They are in the Big Ten right?” He wasn’t being cocky, he didn’t know. They are running on the pure energy of making the dance. Something the Spartan Nation expects and takes for granted. That energy, up against at times for MSU this season has been a lack of it, is gigantic.

 

If the Spartans come out lackadaisical and disinterested, they will get beat. NMSU isn’t better than MSU. It isn’t even close. They do however have the emotion and if MSU plays poor defense and or gives them second chances and allows them to believe they can win, turn out the lights. NMSU will be Cinderella and in the dance the crowds always get engaged with her the longer she is in the game.

 

It is critical that MSU comes out intense and ready and they will run NMSU off the court. 

 

Prediction…

The Spartans come out on fire and with a mission. Great defense and offensive balance give them the easy 88-73 win.