Big Ten Football Over/Under Win Total Predictions
We are 85 days away from the first Big Ten football game of the 2023 season, when new head coach Matt Rhule leads Nebraska to Minneapolis to take on Minnesota.
Circa Sportsbook recently released its expected win totals for all 131 FBS programs, and it's the perfect time to make predictions for all 14 Big Ten football programs. Teams have been listed from highest win total to lowest. Let's begin...
Michigan Wolverines
Circa Win Total — 10.5
My Prediction — 11
Michigan is the current king of the Big Ten, having won back-to-back conference titles. Head coach Jim Harbaugh has orchestrated an impressive turnaround following a 2-4 record in the COVID-shortened 2020 season. The Wolverines benefit from an uber-soft non-conference schedule in 2023, but that shouldn't distract onlookers to the fact that this team will be loaded with talent again this fall. A road trip to Penn State and the season-finale at home against Ohio State will likely determine whether Michigan exceeds this win total or falls short.
Ohio State Buckeyes
Circa Win Total — 10.5
My Prediction — 11
After winning four consecutive Big Ten championships from 2017-2020, the Buckeyes have fallen short each of the last two seasons. Even worse, they've had to watch their bitter rivals from the North seize the league crown. Despite a 45-6 record as Ohio State's head coach, Ryan Day enters 2023 with immense pressure to beat Michigan and reclaim the Big Ten. That won't be an easy task, as the Buckeyes have to travel to Ann Arbor this season. Ohio State has a couple other tough games in 2023 as well, with a road trip to Notre Dame and a home tilt vs. Penn State.
Penn State Nittany Lions
Circa Win Total — 9.5
My Prediction — 10
Penn State is tired of playing third fiddle behind Ohio State and Michigan in the Big Ten East division, but the fact of the matter is the Nittany Lions are 4-14 against the Buckeyes and Wolverines since James Franklin was hired in 2014. That being said, this 2023 team is expected to be one of Franklin's best, and the Nittany Lions get Michigan at home this season. If former five-star quarterback Drew Allar lives up to his recruiting ranking, Penn State will be firmly in the mix for the Big Ten title with a defense that is expected to be among the nation's best.
Wisconsin Badgers
Circa Win Total — 8.5
My Prediction — 9
Wisconsin made arguably the biggest coaching hire of the offseason, swaying Luke Fickell away from Cincinnati. How big of an impact can Fickell make on the field in Year 1? The Badgers have traditionally been a factor in the conference over the past 20-30 years, and Fickell has the coaching and recruiting chops to turn Wisconsin into a routine challenger in the conference once more. The Badgers have a tricky non-conference road trip to Washington State in Week 2. Wisconsin hosts Iowa (Week 7) and Ohio State (Week 9) in arguably its two toughest Big Ten games, and has to travel to Minnesota in the season-finale.
Iowa Hawkeyes
Circa Win Total — 8
My Prediction — 10
I feel a little uneasy about projecting 10 wins for a program that has routinely featured one of the worst offenses in all of college football over the last several seasons. However, the Hawkeyes added key transfer portal pieces in former Michigan quarterback Cade McNamara and tight end Erick All, as well as former Ohio State wide receiver Kaleb Brown. Perhaps a bigger factor is Iowa's schedule, which isn't all that daunting. A Week 4 trip to Penn State is easily the Hawkeyes' toughest game. Iowa gets Michigan State, Minnesota and Illinois all at home, though road trips to Iowa State, Wisconsin and Nebraska could be challenging.
Minnesota Golden Gophers
Circa Win Total — 7
My Prediction — 7
After predicting the "over" on the first five programs, I'm going with a "push" for Minnesota. Head coach P.J. Fleck has done a good job with this program. In five seasons with the Golden Gophers, Fleck has as many nine-win seasons as the past four Minnesota head coaches combined. With that said, I think the Golden Gophers are in for a bit of a slide in 2023. The schedule is tough, with a road trip to North Carolina in Week 2, a home game vs. Michigan in Week 5 and road trips to Iowa (Week 7) and Ohio State (Week 12) before wrapping the season at home vs. Wisconsin. The Golden Gophers also get a visit from Michigan State in Week 8, which isn't a gimme.
Illinois Fighting Illini
Circa Win Total — 6.5
My Prediction — 6
Head coach Bret Bielema exceeded expectations with an eight-win season in his second year at Illinois, and the Fighting Illini are no longer a program that other Big Ten teams can pencil in as a win. With that being said, Illinois lost its best player from 2022, tailback Chase Brown, to the NFL Draft this offseason. The Fighting Illini have a non-conference road trip to a potential up-and-coming program in Kansas in Week 2, as well as conference road games at Maryland (Week 7), Minnesota (Week 10) and Iowa (Week 12). Illinois also hosts Penn State (Week 3), Nebraska (Week 6) and Wisconsin (Week 8). There are a lot of "toss-up" games there.
Maryland Terrapins
Circa Win Total — 6.5
My Prediction — 7
Maryland's win total has increased each year during head coach Mike Locksley's second stint in College Park, but I don't expect that trend to continue in 2023. I'm still picking the Terrapins to exceed 6.5 wins, but I think Maryland suffers losses at Michigan State (Week 4), at Ohio State (Week 6), vs. Penn State (Week 10), vs. Michigan (Week 12) and perhaps one more vs. Illinois (Week 7).
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Circa Win Total — 6.5
My Prediction — 5
I'm not sure what to make of Nebraska heading into 2023. I like the Cornhuskers hire of Matt Rhule, and am optimistic that he can turn things around in Lincoln, but that roster needs a lot of work. Nebraska has five road games which I consider to be "toss-ups" at best — Minnesota (Week 1), Colorado (Week 2), Illinois (Week 6), Michigan State (Week 10) and Wisconsin (Week 12). The Huskers also host Michigan (Week 5), Maryland (Week 11) and Iowa (Week 13).
Michigan State Spartans
Circa Win Total — 5
My Prediction — 6
A couple of weeks ago, I would have predicted five wins for Michigan State, but I think the Spartans are going to be a little better than what people think. Public perception of MSU is way down following a 5-7 campaign in 2022 and a poor month of May. The Spartans face one of the toughest schedules in the country, which is why their win total is set so low. I think this is a better roster than most people realize. With that, I think Michigan State can win two out of eight against Washington (Week 3), Maryland (Week 4), at Iowa (Week 5), Michigan (Week 8), at Minnesota (Week 9), Nebraska (Week 10), at Ohio State (Week 11) and Penn State (Week 13).
Purdue Boilermakers
Circa Win Total — 5
My Prediction — 3
Purdue was dealt a blow this offseason when head coach Jeff Brohm departed to become the new leading man at his alma mater, Louisville. The Boilermakers were one of the worst programs in Big Ten prior to Brohm's arrival in 2017, and I'm afraid the Boilermakers could be in for a downward spiral. Perhaps that's unfair to new head coach Ryan Walters, who comes over after two seasons as Illinois' defensive coordinator. My concern is the fact that Purdue hired a defensive head coach as the replacement for Brohm — one of the best offensive minds in the sport. The Boilermakers have been at their best under offensive head coaches like Brohm and the late great Joe Tiller. Going the defensive route with Walters was a strange move in my opinion.
Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Circa Win Total — 4.5
My Prediction — 4
I think Greg Schiano is a good football coach, but Rutgers has to be one of the toughest places to win in America. The Scarlet Knights are routinely less talented than most of their annual opponents — Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, Michigan State and Maryland. Rutgers also has tough road trips to Wisconsin and Iowa this season, and "toss-up" games against Virginia Tech (home) and Indiana (away). Six wins is likely the Scarlet Knights ceiling, and that's if things go well.
Indiana Hoosiers
Circa Win Total — 4
My Prediction — 3
Indiana is in a very similar boat at Rutgers. I like head coach Tom Allen, but the Hoosiers have disappointed in back-to-back years with two wins in 2021 and four in 2022. Indiana will be a heavy underdog against the three powers of the Big Ten East, and faces other tough games against Louisville (home), Maryland (away), Wisconsin (home), Illinois (away) and Michigan State (home). Throw is "toss-ups" against Rutgers (home) and Purdue (away) and it's tough to envision the Hoosiers exceeding expectations in 2022.
Northwestern Wildcats
Circa Win Total — 3.5
My Prediction — 2
Northwestern has taken quite the cliff dive in the last two seasons, with just four wins combined. Last season was particularly brutal for the Wildcats, who went 1-11 with losses to Southern Illinois and Miami (Ohio). Head coach Pat Fitzgerald led Northwestern to winning seasons in four out of five years from 2015 to 2020, and has even reached the 10-win plateau three times his past 11 years in Evanston. Maybe the Wildcats rise above the Big Ten doormat that they've been over the past two years, but I'll have to see it to believe it.
