Can MSU QB Aidan Chiles Eliminate the Turnovers vs. Michigan?
Michigan State is looking to end its most significant rival's playoff hopes and their season.
The Spartans are coming off a huge win over Iowa last weekend, following their bye week. They aim to build upon their recent success by beating the Michigan Wolverines this weekend.
BJ Cunningham of The Action Network believes Michigan State's chances ride on the arm of quarterback Aidan Chiles.
“Aidan Chiles is the definition of 'chuck it deep and hope for the best,'" Cunningham said. "He has ten interceptions on the season and has thrown a pick in five of Michigan State’s seven games. It gets worse, though. He has committed 18 turnover-worthy plays, the most in college football. He’s also committed a turnover-worthy play in every game this season.
“What tends to happen is that Michigan State is unable to run the ball, and he’s forced to try and beat defenses over the top, but he ends up throwing it up for grabs more often than not. Michigan State will likely struggle to run the ball in this game because Michigan is in the top 45 in Defensive Line Yards and EPA per Rush allowed."
Cunningham noted that although Michigan is subpar at intercepting passes, it does have a formidable pass rush that could potentially pressure Chiles into critical mistakes. Nearly all of Chiles' interceptions this season have come under a collapsed pocket.
Dialing up the pressure on Chiles might be the Wolverines' best option for slowing down Chiles, Nick Marsh and the rest of Michigan State's offense.
"The Wolverines only have six interceptions on the season, but they have the best PFF Pass-Rushing grade in the nation," Cunningham said. "This means Chiles is going to constantly be under pressure, so he’s more likely to throw an interception. Seven of his ten interceptions this season have come in a crowded pocket.
"Two weeks ago, against Oregon, this line was -200. I get that Michigan has a worse secondary, but there shouldn’t be this big of a discount for the nation's leader in turnover-worthy plays."
Michigan State has a chance to solidify what has already been a successful season. However, they will not be able to do so unless Chiles stops giving the ball to the other team multiple times a game. Michigan State has improved but they are not good enough to beat themselves and the opposing team.
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Ezekiel is a former Sports Editor from the Western Herald and former Atlanta Falcons beat writer.