Does Michigan State Have a Puncher's Chance Against Ohio State?

Michigan State narrowly missed going 4-0, as it took the field minus multiple starters against Boston College. Is there a chance it can pull off an upset against Ohio State on Saturday?

Sep 21, 2024; Chestnut Hill, Massachusetts, USA; Michigan State Spartans quarterback Aidan Chiles (2) scores a touchdown against the Boston College Eagles during the first half at Alumni Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Eric Canha-Imagn Images / Eric Canha-Imagn Images

Michigan State is coming off its first loss and will face two of the best teams in college football in back-to-back weeks, starting with Ohio State.

Brad Cunningham of The Action Network recently released his predictions for this weekend’s college football games, including Ohio State’s trip to East Lansing to face Michigan State. 

“Ohio State has been rolling everyone in its path, but this Michigan State defense is the first solid stop unit it will face,” Cunningham said. “You'd expect quarterback Will Howard to be putting up elite passing numbers with Ohio State being 3-0 and averaging over 45 points on offense. While that's the case on paper, he owns a PFF passing grade of just 73.7 against Akron, Western Michigan, and Marshall.

“He hasn't been forced to beat teams with his arm because Ohio State has had a comfortable lead in every game, but that might change against Michigan State. The Spartans are one of the few teams on Ohio State's schedule that can stop the run. MSU has played the 45th-most difficult schedule thus far, and ranks 10th in the nation in EPA/Rush Allowed."

Cunningham noted that while Michigan State’s defense has played well this season, its offense has not and could be the reason the Spartans lose to Ohio State. Cunningham pointed to Michigan State quarterback Aidan Chiles’ high turnover rate as a cause for concern. 

“While the Michigan State defense has been good, the offense has been a different story,” Cunningham wrote. “It's losing in the trenches, ranking outside the top 100 in both Offensive Line Yards and Stuff Rate Allowed. Ohio State has one of the best defensive lines in the country and owns the nation's fourth-best run defense grade, according to Pro Football Focus.

“Michigan State quarterback Aidan Chiles has been a turnover machine so far this season, as he has already thrown eight interceptions with 11 turnover-worthy plays in four games. Ohio State's defense ranks second nationally in Havoc, so don't be surprised if the Spartans turn the ball over multiple times on Saturday. The [Over/Under] total [of 49.5 points] is too high for me here, given that this is the first opponent that could slow down Ohio State's rushing attack and force Howard to put the ball in the air."

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