Fixing its Fatal Flaws Will be Crucial for MSU's Chances on Friday
Michigan State is on a two-game losing streak and will face an Oregon team with one of the country's best offenses and overall teams.
Brad Cunningham of The Action Network noted that Michigan State struggles at many things Oregon does well, which could be a recipe for disaster.
“[Chiles] loves to throw deep, averaging 7.8 yards per attempt at a 12.8 average depth of target, two of the nation's highest marks,” Cunningham said. “Unfortunately, that's worked against him, as consistently throwing deep has led to nine interceptions on 14 turnover-worthy plays through just five games.
“Oregon ranks fourth nationally in Havoc generated, so don't be surprised if we see multiple Spartan turnovers on Friday. Michigan State also can't run the ball, averaging 3.7 yards per carry while ranking 81st nationally in Rush Success Rate. The offensive line hasn't opened lanes, ranking 72nd in PFF's Run Blocking grades and 121st in Line Yards.
Cunningham does not believe the Spartans will move the ball effectively enough against Oregon to pull off an upset on the road. Cunningham noted Michigan State’s struggles against Ohio State last weekend.
“The Spartans likely struggle to move the ball in Eugene," he noted. "Michigan State struggled against the first elite offense they have faced this season. The Spartans allowed Ohio State to run the ball at will, as the Buckeyes averaged 5.3 yards per carry.
"Sparty has been solid against the run on the year, ranking top-30 nationally in Rush Success Rate allowed. Unfortunately, their secondary has played poorly, ranking 89th in EPA per Pass allowed and 85th in Pass Explosiveness allowed. Dillon Gabriel should carve the Spartans up.”
Cunningham said Michigan State’s offense will struggle. He believes Michigan State’s defense will have a hard time stopping a talented Oregon offense that likes to throw the ball, as the Spartans’ defense has not played a quarterback of Gabriel’s stature yet this season.
“I don't see how Michigan State will move the ball effectively," Cunningham wrote. "The Spartans' game plan should be running the ball, but if that doesn't work, Chiles will have to chuck the ball deep and into traffic. Conversely, Oregon should throw the ball over all over Michigan State's secondary. The Spartans have yet to face an elite passer, and Gabriel fits that bill.”
While Michigan State has undoubtedly improved from last season, it is only the first year in Coach Jonathan Smith’s rebuild. As he looks to turn Michigan State’s football program around, difficult losses are to be expected early on. Even Lanning and Oregon had to take their lumps early in his tenure when the Ducks faced better teams. It will be no different for Smith and Michigan State.
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Ezekiel is a former Sports Editor from the Western Herald and former Atlanta Falcons beat writer.