Is Michigan State Hitting Its Projected Win Total a Good Bet?

Expectations are low for Michigan State football entering this season. Would it be wise to bet on it to exceed those expectations?

Michigan State's head coach Jonathan Smith gives a thumbs up to the crowd as he enters the field during the football Spring Showcase on Saturday, April 20, 2024, at Spartan Stadium in East Lansing. / Nick King/Lansing State Journal / USA

As Michigan State and Coach Jonathan Smith prepare for their first season together, there are many reasons for optimism and skepticism.

Coach Smith entered a situation in East Lansing that was arguably one of the most difficult of any new coach in college football this season. Michigan State also has one of the most challenging schedules of any team in the Big Ten and the country. For those reasons and many more, there has been little hope for Michigan State to have a successful first season under Smith. 

However, Smith secured one of the better transfer portal classes in the country this offseason, giving Michigan State a fighting chance this season. Justin Thind of 247Sports believes Michigan State will exceed expectations and reach more than the four games they are projected to win this upcoming season. 

“Last season, MSU went 4-8 with bad coaching, poor buy-in, and less talent than this season at every position except starting DT and backup OT, in my opinion,” Thind said. “This was after choking wins in the Rutgers and Iowa games. You could also make arguments - despite the final scores - that the Minnesota and Maryland games would've been won if not for a couple of mistakes. Point is, that team was competitive in all but three games (two of them vs national title game participants and the other vs OSU). You mean to tell me they once again win four games in 2024? I'll take the over.”

Time will tell whether Michigan State’s football team can surprise those who think it will only win four or five games. However, it must be noted that Michigan State plays Florida Atlantic and Prarie View A&M at home early in the season. While nothing is guaranteed in sports, those should be two of Michigan State’s projected four wins. 

Michigan State also closes the season with three of the last four games in East Lansing against beatable conference opponents, Indiana Purdue and Rutgers. The fourth game is against Illinois on the road. That would be another winnable game for a Michigan State team that would have spent the previous weeks growing and developing as a team.

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