Michigan State, Oregon on Polar Trajectories Entering Week 6
Michigan State is 3-2 and has had both a winning streak and a losing streak to start the season.
It has lost two straight and will face one of the best teams in the country for the second consecutive week, this time on the road.
Eric Froton of NBC Sports believes the Spartans are in for a long day as they are now playing significantly more challenging opponents than they did to start the season.
“In Week 1, they limped to a 16-10 win over a Florida Atlantic program that currently ranks 105th in SP+, before scoring a big 27-24 signature win over Big Ten foe Maryland,” Froton said. “However, since a 40-0 evisceration of Prairie View A&M, MSU has dropped two straight against Boston College, where they earned a meek 19% win expectancy thanks to four costly turnovers, and a complete meltdown versus Ohio State last week. MSU ranks 130th in points per scoring opportunity, 93rd in EPA/Play, and 131st with 13 turnovers through five games.”
Froton noted that although Oregon started the season with two victories closer than many expected, the Ducks have found their stride. They have convincingly beaten their last two opponents, and those opponents have a talent level similar to Michigan State.
“Oregon started the 2024 season slowly as they acclimated to new QB Dillon Gabriel’s play style, winning a surprisingly close 24-14 contest against Idaho in Week 1 before Boise State took Oregon to the limit in a 37-34 victory in what is now known as The Ashton Jeanty Coming Out Party,” Froton said.
“The Ducks have hit their stride since then, going on the road and destroying both Oregon State and UCLA by a combined score of 83-27. The potent OU offense currently ranks 4th in SP+ offense, 16th in pass success rate, and 1st in completion rate. Their 22nd-ranked defense has been lights-out in the pass game but is struggling to contain the run, ranking 113th in EPA/Rush and 98th in yards before contact."
Michigan State is in the first year of a rebuild that is expected to take some time. While they have had a solid transfer portal and recruiting classes, they are only six games into Coach Jonathan Smith’s tenure at Michigan State. Friday’s game against Oregon will likely be another night filled with growing pains for the Spartans.
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Ezekiel is a former Sports Editor from the Western Herald and former Atlanta Falcons beat writer.