Michigan State Football: The Ceiling And Floor In 2023

Looking at the best and worst-case scenarios for Spartan football this fall...

Author:
Matthew Lounsberry
Publish date:
Apr 24, 2023 7:18 PM EDT

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Mel Tucker and the Michigan State Spartans have a lot of questions to answer following 2022's disappointing 5-7 season, which saw MSU finish in fifth place in the Big Ten East and fail to qualify for a bowl game.

The schedule does not lighten up at all for the Spartans in 2023. In fact, if anything, the campaign that Michigan State has in front of it this fall could be even more difficult than last year's.

With that in mind, here are the best and worst case scenarios for Spartan football in 2023.

The Ceiling: 9-3

Against the schedule that Michigan State faces this fall, which features four teams who could be preseason Top 15 teams, a 9-3 record can only be viewed as a major success for Tucker and Co.

That would mean at least one win for the Spartans over Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State or Washington — each of whom finished in the Top 10 a year ago. Beating the Wolverines, in particular, would make this scenario taste even sweeter. A 9-3 record also means that Michigan State likely handles its road trips to Iowa and Minnesota well.

In this scenario, the Spartans name their starting quarterback ahead of Week 1 vs. Central Michigan and that guy flourishes behind an improved offensive line and benefits from an increase in run production.

Michigan State's three-man rotation at tailback, which features UConn transfer Nathan Carter, returning redshirt junior Jalen Berger and USF transfer Jaren Mangham, force opposing defenses to respect the run, which opens up the pass game for the starting quarterback to utilize Keon Coleman, Tre Mosley and a breakout third wide receiver option.

Redshirt junior tight end Maliq Carr finally lives up to his potential, and turns into a legitimate matchup nightmare for opposing linebackers and safeties as well.

Defensively, the Spartans' defensive line allows MSU to be stout against the run and put opponents in predictable third-down passing plays. This isn't some far-fetched hope — Michigan State was excellent against the run in 2021, they just couldn't get off the field on third down due to a woeful secondary.

In this scenario, the Spartans get more out of their pass rush, and a young infusion of talented defensive backs — Charles Brantly, Jaden Mangham, Dillon Tatum, Caleb Coley, etc. — show improvement and cohesiveness under new cornerbacks coach Jim Salgado and veteran safeties coach Harlon Barnett.

The Floor: 4-8

It's hard to imagine the 2023 season being even worse than last year's campaign, but against the schedule that Michigan State faces and given some of the results we saw a year ago, we can't totally count out the possibility.

The Spartans get Michigan, Penn State and Washington at home — that's the good news. The bad news is all three of those teams are expected to be very good and will be favored against MSU, even at Spartan Stadium. Throw in road trips to Ohio State, Iowa and Minnesota, and its very easy to get to six losses for Michigan State.

In 2022, the Spartans lost to Maryland on the road and Indiana at home. Michigan State gets the Terrapins at home in 2023, which is a plus, but Maryland won eight games last year and returns starting quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa. This year's game between the Spartans and Terrapins could be another battle.

As far as the Hoosiers, while I don't expect Michigan State to lose this game again in 2023, I didn't expect the Spartans to lose to Indiana at home last year either. In order to win back the Old Brass Spittoon, it'll take a road win for MSU in Bloomington.

In this scenario, Michigan State's quarterback competition drags into the season, as the Week 1 starter struggles to move the offense down the field consistently. The Spartans' added depth along the offensive line does not result in a better run game, and incoming transfers Carter and Mangham are no more productive than Berger and Jarek Broussard were a year ago.

As a result, MSU rotates Payton Thorne and Noah Kim early in the year, before settling on redshirt freshman Katin Houser as the starter to finish the season to begin preparing for 2024.

Defensively, Michigan State improves in stopping the run from last year, but the secondary once again can't get off the field on third down. The Spartans' mix of veteran and young players in the secondary continues to struggle mightily, and the heat on defensive coordinator Scottie Hazelton burns even hotter.

My Prediction: 7-5

With a little over four months left this offseason, it's still too early for true expectations to take root. With that said, I think 7-5 is a good barometer for the 2023 season.

I won't be shocked if Michigan State beats one of either Michigan, Penn State or Washington, but I can't predict a win over any of those three at this time. I would be shocked if the Spartans beat Ohio State in Columbus. Those road trips to Iowa and Minnesota will be very challenging. As of now, I think MSU wins one and loses the other.

There's no doubt in my mind that Michigan State starts the year 2-0 with wins over Central Michigan and Richmond, and I also expect wins over Rutgers, Indiana and Nebraska. The Maryland game is tricky, and could be a swing game, but I like the Spartans chances at home.

As of now, my best guess is that Thorne will start at quarterback in Week 1 and, barring injury, will hold down the job throughout 2023. Michigan State's offensive line provides better push in the run game, and the trio of Carter, Berger and Mangham proves tough for opposing defenses to stop.

The Spartans should get good play from its defensive line, which I believe to be the team's deepest and arguably most-talented unit at this point. I don't know what to expect from Michigan State's secondary. I like a lot of the young pieces that MSU has back there, but they are still very much in a "prove it" phase.

Still, a two-win improvement would indicate that Tucker has things moving in the right direction again, and get Michigan State back to a bowl game. Win that, and the Spartans end 2023 with a 8-5 record, a nice improvement from a year ago.