ESPN's Bill Connelly, CBS Sports' Josh Pate put Washington on 'Upset Alert' vs. MSU
The closer we get to game time between Michigan State and No. 8 Washington, the more it feels like the Spartans could have a shot at a Top 10 upset this Saturday.
At least, that's what two prominent college football analysts believe.
ESPN's Bill Connelly and CBS Sports' Josh Pate both had the matchup between the Spartans and Huskies on 'Upset Alert' this week.
In his 'Upset Watch' article, Connelly wrote that "Michigan State has both the pass rush and the big-play receiving corps to make this game interesting." Connelly notes that the Spartans have surrendered an average of only 206 yards of total offense in the first two weeks against Central Michigan and Richmond.
While Connelly acknowledges that Washington has vastly superior offensive firepower to both the Chippewas and the Spiders, he says that the Spartans' pass rush could give Husky quarterback Michael Penix Jr. problems.
"I'm awfully curious about the fact that MSU ranks first nationally in sacks per dropback (14.9%) and second in pressure rate (55.1%) through two games," Connelly wrote. "It has 10 sacks, and it's attacking from lots of angles -- nine players have at least 0.5 sacks, and linebacker Aaron Brule leads the way with two."
Connelly also likes the Spartans' own offensive firepower in the passing game, led by Noah Kim and a deep crop of wide receivers.
"New Spartans quarterback Noah Kim has been pressured quite a bit, but currently ranks fifth in the country in yards per dropback (10.4)," Connelly writes. "Veteran receivers Tre Mosley and Christian Fitzpatrick have combined for 13 catches and 226 yards, while freshmen Jaron Glover and Antonio Gates Jr...have combined for six catches and 180 yards."
Michigan State has struggled to run the ball consistently so far this season, so taking the air out of the ball and keeping Penix Jr. on the sideline with its rushing attack probably isn't a viable strategy for the Spartans. However, perhaps Kim and the MSU receivers can got shot for shot with Penix and the Huskies if their defense forces a couple turnovers.
"The Spartans' run game has been awful, but for as many advantages as UW's passing game tends to create, MSU might find a few too," Connelly wrote. "And if Penix is struggling with pressure, this one suddenly has upset potential."
In his 'Biggest Upset Alerts' segment on 'Late Kick w/ Josh Pate', the podcast host put Michigan State's chances of upsetting Washington at a 7.5 to 7.75 on a scale of one to 10.
"I'm looking at this, and Washington is sitting there in the Top 10, and they're going across the country, and they're laying 17 and I am nervous," Pate said, noting Washington's status as a 17-point favorite.
Pate notes that the suspension of Michigan State head coach Mel Tucker has grabbed all the headlines surrounding this game, while the actual football matchup is going largely overlooked.
"What's Michigan State been in the news for this week? Their head coach is suspended pending a sexual harassment investigation," Pate said.
"No one is talking about football and, also, everyone's just of the opinion the team's terrible -- 'the quarterback, their best wide reciever transfer out, they're bad.'"
Count Pate as another college football analyst who has been impressed with what Kim has done in his first year as a starter at MSU.
"No one's paying attention to Noah Kim," Pate said. "No one even knows what he's been doing at the quarterback position. No one knows that Michigan State is plus-74 in point differential so far through two games. That's their best mark since 1931."
While Tucker's suspension could serve as a distraction for the team, Pate believes it could also serve as a rallying cry for the Spartans.
"A lot of times when you lose star players, and you know about it all week — it doesn't happen on a Friday — there's this galvanization that happens in the locker room, and a bunch of folks play at 105% and, collectively, that more than makes up for the loss," Pate said. "Well, when you lose a head coach that not only happens with your player roster, sometimes it happens with your coaching staff too."
Speaking hypothetically, Pate also noted that if there was dissention amongst Michigan State's team over Tucker that the head coach being suspended could provide another form of motivation.
"There could just be some folks up there that didn't like Mel Tucker," Pate said. "Now, I'm speaking purely hypothetically here — I don't know any of that to be true. But, sometimes there just happens to be resentment for whoever is 'Out' or got suspended in the locker room and there's an added motivation to play at your best because you want to show everyone, 'Without this person, we're better'. Oh, and by the way, you want to defend home field in any scenario."
Kickoff between No. 8 Washington and Michigan State is scheduled for 5 p.m. ET, with NBC's streaming service — Peacock — carrying the broadcast.
The full 'Biggest Upset Alerts of Week 3' segment of 'Late Kick w/ Josh Pate' can be viewed below:
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