247Sports' Josh Pate: Michigan State a "mystery program" in 2023
Michigan State football has been a roller-coaster ride for the past three seasons under head coach Mel Tucker.
The Spartans went 2-5 in his COVID-shortened debut season, and arguably exceeded expectations due to the circumstances — Tucker wasn't hired until the end of February, could not conduct spring practice due to to the pandemic and still managed to knock off rival Michigan as a three-touchdown underdog.
Then Kenneth Walker III arrived in 2021 and Michigan State blew every preseason projection out of the water by going 11-2 and winning a New Year's Six bowl.
With Walker leaving for the NFL after one season, most reasonable people expected the Spartans to take a step back in 2022, but no one could have been prepared for the 5-7 train wreck we got last fall.
With that, it's hard to know what to expect from Michigan State in 2023. Will this program closer reflect the 11-2 breakout season, or are the roster deficiencies that were evident last season too much to overcome in one year?
On his show, Late Kick w/ Josh Pate, 247Sports college football analyst Josh Pate labeled Michigan State a "mystery program" heading into 2023.
“Michigan State – I can’t find the centerpoint for the program," Pate said. “You go 2-5 Year 1 under Mel Tucker, 11-2 Year 2…that was the big awakening in East Lansing. And then it gets followed up with 5-7. So, what is the program?”
The Spartans played one of the most difficult schedules in the country last season, with four of their opponents finishing in the Top 10 of the final Associated Press poll. However, as Pate points out, Michigan State was beaten soundly in six of their seven defeats.
"If I saw that 5-7, I would think they must have the ‘Nebraska disease’ of losing every game by three points. But then you look, and their losses: to Washington – double digits, to Minnesota – blowout, double digits, to Maryland – double digits, to Ohio State – double digits, at Michigan – double digits," Pate said. "They lost in overtime by only six, in overtime, to Indiana – yeah, to Indiana. Lost the last game of the year to Penn State by double digits. They weren't close."
So, what went wrong in 2022? Pate had a pretty clear answer.
“They can’t run the ball," he said. "Some of their rushing statistics were the worst in the world this year.”
Out of 131 FBS teams, Michigan State ranked 111th in rushing yards per game (113), T-88th in yards per carry (3.76) and T-89th in rushing touchdowns (16).
“I can tell you right now – there will be no sustainability up there if they can’t run the ball better," Pate said. "Everybody’s talking about the quarterback position right now, Payton Thorne…will he still be the starting quarterback? You going to be able to run the ball for him? Because if you can’t, I don’t really care who’s playing quarterback for you, you’re going to be very, very bad. Very, very ineffective.”
With that said, Pate isn't ruling out a bounce back season for the Spartans in 2023.
“I don’t know where the program’s headed this year," he said. "What’s the centerpoint? If you could find the happy middle ground…11 wins and five wins, it averages out to an eight-win per year season. But it’s all or nothing, it’s feast or famine. There’s almost no reason to expect that’s where this program will land this year. It almost feels like they’ll either be back to shocking the world or missing a bowl game again… That’s why they’re a mystery program. I can’t figure them out.”
The full "mystery program" segment on Late Kick w/ Josh Pate can be viewed below. The segment on Michigan State begins at the 6:23 mark in the video.
