Staff Predictions: Michigan State vs. Central Michigan
At long last, the offseason has come to an end and college football is back in East Lansing!
Michigan State, coming off a disappointing and forgetful 5-7 year in 2022, looks to get back to its winning ways in Year 4 of the Mel Tucker era. The Spartans are 18-14 overall under Tucker’s leadership, having gone 2-5 in the COVID-shortened season of 2020, before breaking out with an 11-2 mark in 2021.
While the 2023 roster is mostly composed of players that Tucker and his staff have recruited, the majority of those players are still young. We’ll see how fast the Spartans can grow up against one of the toughest schedules in all of college football.
Michigan State opens the season with an in-state opponent in Central Michigan. The Spartans are 8-3 overall in their previous 11 meetings with the Chippewas. It was CMU which took the first two meetings in this series in 1991 and 1992, before MSU won the next four meetings. Central Michigan pulled off another upset of the Spartans in 2009.
Michigan State has once again won four in a row in the series, and enter Friday night’s matchup as a 14-point favorite over the Chippewas. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. at Spartan Stadium, with FS1 carrying the broadcast.
With the history lesson out of the way, Spartan Nation senior writer Matthew Lounsberry and contributor Aedan Mulcrone share their thoughts on the game below with 3 Bold Predictions, Game Previews, and Final Score Predictions.
Matt’s 3 Bold Predictions
1.) MSU transfer tailback Nathan Carter exceeds 85 yards rushing
Tucker and Michigan State want to run the ball more effectively in 2023 after the offense struggled mightily to generate a rushing attack a year ago. With that in mind, I see the Spartans coming out with a physical mindset against a team they should be able to overpower in the trenches.
The beneficiary of that will be UConn transfer tailback Nathan Carter, who is expected to be the starter for the Spartans. While Carter will split time in the backfield with returner Jalen Berger, I expect Carter to be the feature back for MSU this season, and I think he’ll get off to a good start in 2023 against CMU.
I wasn’t quite bold enough to call for 100 rushing yards in the opener for Carter, but I’ll say he exceeds 85 yards on the ground on Friday night.
2.) Spartan defense sacks CMU’s quarterback 4 times
Another area in which Michigan State struggled a year ago was generating a pass rush. However, that wasn’t the case early on in the 2022 season. Linebacker/edge rusher Jacoby Windmon got off to a great start a year ago, and I see MSU finding success against the Chippewas this year as well.
Defensive end Khris Bogle, who transferred in from Florida ahead of the 2022 season, was injured for the majority of last season. He’s back healthy, and I think he’ll make a big impact for MSU in 2023. He’s joined by sophomore Zion Young and Texas A&M transfer Tunmise Adeleye on the edge, which should a strength for the Spartans.
Throw in Windmon, Cal Haladay, Aaron Brule and true freshman Jordan Hall at linebacker, and Michigan State looks to have a pretty stout front seven on defense. I’ll look for the Spartans to overwhelm Central Michigan’s offensive line and come up with at least four sacks.
3.) Sophomore WR Tyrell Henry exceeds 100 all-purpose yards
Michigan State returns a kick returner with experience in sophomore wide receiver Tyrell Henry, who is expected to take over punt return duties for the Spartans this season as well. Henry is a burner in the open field, and he should have plenty of opportunities to make an impact on special teams in the opener.
While I expect upperclassmen Tre Mosley, Montorie Foster and Alante Brown to receive the majority of the snaps at wide recieiver, Henry could make his way into the rotation and pick up a few offensive yards as well. When it’s all said and done, I think Henry’s impact will show up in the post-game box score.
Aedan’s 3 Bold Predictions
1.) Michigan State’s first TD will come via the pass
MSU’s quarterback conversation won’t end until we see the Spartan offense take the field, so here’s a little more anticipation. The first score for Michigan State last season was a 45-yard slant to Germie Bernard. While Bernard has since transferred to Washington, the Spartans have opportunities for a new playmaker to emerge.
Whoever wins the QB job will get a chance to show off the arm early. Part of breaking in a new quarterback is building up their confidence. I expect the offense to take shots early in the game and give Katin Houser or Noah Kim a chance to show off the arm.
2.) The Spartans force 2 turnovers defensively
I expect MSU’s pass defense to improve this season by creating more pressure on the quarterback and better coverage provided by the defensive backs. Creating that pressure should lead to turnovers against an inferior opponent like Central Michigan.
With the amount of depth the Spartans have, they can create different looks for the Chippewas’ offense and quarterback. Differing looks can really throw an offense off, especially if they haven’t seen them on film before. Jacoby Windmon has great instincts for finding the football and forcing fumbles, and I expect him to create at least one of those turnovers.
3.) Michigan State hold Central to less than 275 yards of offense
We touched on this in the podcast, but I want to go back to how much I believe MSU’s defense will improve. Central Michigan returns only four offensive starters, is still looking for playmakers and will struggle to get into a rhythm against the Spartans’ defense.
Michigan State has several guys returning from suspension and injury, specifically Jacoby Windmon, which will be huge. Tucker challenged his team to control the running game on both sides of the ball in fall camp, and expressed confidence in that during this week’s press conference. The fanbase, meanwhile, still wants to know how MSU’s pass defense will improve. I think the Spartans show improvement in both areas on Friday.
Matt’s Preview, Score Prediction
After missing out on a bowl game last season, reaching six wins is the bare minimum requirement for Michigan State in 2023. That starts with this opener against Central Michigan. The Spartans have been snake-bitten by the Chippewas in the past, but that can’t happen this year.
I expect Michigan State to come out with something to prove, even against this Mid-American Conference opponent. The Spartans are breaking in several new starters on offense, including at quarterback. They also have limited experience at wide receiver, outside of Tre Mosley. For those reasons, I don’t expect Michigan State to light the world on fire offensively. BUT, the Spartans have experience at offensive line, and I like their group of running backs in Carter, Berger and USF transfer Jaran Mangham.
Defensively, I see Michigan State taking a sizeable step forward against the run. The 2021 team had the fourth-best in the Big Ten in rushing yards allowed per game, and I think this year’s team can be as good if not better. The Spartans’ pass defense will remain questionable, at best, until proven otherwise, but I think this defense COULD be Tucker’s best thus far. Score Prediction: Michigan State 30, Central Michigan 13
Aedan’s Preview, Score Prediction
Central Michigan head coach Jim McElwain is still building that program. He has shown he can win in Mount Pleasant, but the Chippewas aren’t at the talent level of the Spartans. While CMU’s ability to compete with Michigan State has been doubted, McElwain has been public about having his players motivated for this game.
I expect Central to come out of the gates playing hard and being competitive. Similar to previous years, Michigan State will get a fight from the Chips, but CMU lacks the talent to pull the upset.
The sophomores from Tucker’s best recruiting class get to show their talent and growth in 2023. On offense, receivers Tyrell Henry, Jaron Glover, and Antonio Gates jr. have the chance to win starting jobs. On defense, safeties Jaden Mangham and Malik Spencer were praised by the players they replaced and get to show it in full time roles. Score Prediction: Michigan State 38, Central Michigan 17
For more coverage of Michigan State Athletics:
- Subscribe to our YouTube channel: @SpartanNationPodcast
- Follow us on Facebook: @SpartanNation
- Follow us on Twitter: @mlounsberry_SI | @a3danm
