Staff Predictions: Michigan State at Indiana
As a tumultuous 2023 season begins to wind down for Michigan State, the Spartans travel to Indiana in the penultimate week of the year and seek their second Big Ten victory.
In a series which dates back to 1922, Michigan State holds a dominant 49-18-2 all-time record against Indiana. Since 1950, the Spartans and Hoosiers have played for the Old Brass Spittoon Rivalry trophy, and MSU holds a 49-15-1 edge in the trophy series. As one-sided as this rivalry has been, the Hoosiers have found some recent success, defeating Michigan State in two of the last three years. Last season, Indiana overcame a 17-point halftime deficit to stun MSU in double-overtime, 39-31.
Without further ado, Spartan Nation senior writer Matthew Lounsberry and contributor Aedan Mulcrone share their thoughts on this year’s game below with 3 Bold Predictions, Game Previews, and Final Score Predictions.
Matt’s 3 Bold Predictions
1.) Katin Houser throws for 2+ touchdowns
Redshirt freshman Katin Houser is set to make his fifth start for MSU. It’s been an up and down start to the young quarterback's career, but he’s flashed the potential that made him a four-star prospect in the 2022 recruiting class. Indiana’s defense presents Houser an opportunity for a big game, as the Hoosiers rank No. 72 in passing yards allowed per game. I see the youngster throwing for a pair of touchdowns in this game and having his best game so far as a Spartan.
2.) Nathan Carter eclipses 85 rushing yards
Michigan State’s tailback got off to a great start this season, averaging 95.4 yards per game through the first five weeks. In four of those five weeks, Carter averaged 107.3 ypg. However, the redshirt sophomore’s production has fallen off dramatically over the last five games, in which he’s averaged just 46.8 ypg. This week, I think Carter returns to form against a Hoosier defense which ranks 91st in stopping the run. I’ll call for Carter to eclipse 85 rushing yards, and I think he’ll find the endzone for the first time since Week 2 as well.
3.) Kicker Jonathan Kim makes another 50-yard field goal
I predict Michigan State kicker Jonathan Kim will add two more made field goals to his total this season, and one of those makes will be from 50 yards or beyond. Kim has been the Spartans’ best and most consistent specialist this season, and arguably one of MSU’s best players. As you can see from my predictions above, I see Michigan State’s offense finding some success against this Hoosier defense. It won’t result in the Spartans scoring touchdowns on every drive, but MSU could get in range for Kim’s leg on multiple occasions.
Aedan’s 3 Bold Predictions
1.) Spartans force three turnovers
I will make one of my bold predictions about the Spartans forcing turnovers for a third week in a row. Outside of three games against Top 5 teams (Ohio State, Michigan and Washington) the Spartans have found success forcing turnovers. Against a struggling Indiana team, I expect Michigan State to win the turnover battle.
Indiana has played three different quarterbacks this season but has landed on Brendan Sorsby, who has had some success as of late. The Hoosiers scored 45 in their loss last week against Illinois, and Sorsby led them to a win against Wisconsin two weeks ago. That said, I think the Spartans have a better defense than both of those teams. Indiana also has seven fumbles on offense this season, and Michigan State has a knack for punching the ball out.
2.) Montorie Foster catches two touchdown passes
While its passing game is limited, Michigan State should have success in the air this week. Indiana is giving up 230.2 passing yards per game this season, including 507 yards (yes, you read that right) against Illinois last week. Without the threat of Sam Leavitt playing, I expect Katin Houser to play with confidence against a struggling defense.
As for Montorie Foster, he has been the Spartans’ leading receiver this season. He has been Houser’s favorite target and offensive coordinator Jay Johnson should find ways to get Foster the ball. I think he’ll find the endzone twice.
3.) Spartans defense gets three sacks
Part of Indiana’s issue on offense is giving up sacks, having surrendered 20 this season. The Spartans have been inconsistent getting to the quarterback, but have been successful most of the season pressuring the quarterback. After not recording a sack last week against Ohio State, Michigan State bounces back recording three sacks against the Hoosiers.
Linebacker Aaron Brule has emerged as the teams leader on defense and will be a difference maker in the game. Even with the amount of injuries and players sitting out for the Spartans the ‘front seven’ can still get to the quarterback.
Matt’s Preview, Score Prediction
Even amidst all the turmoil that Michigan State has gone through this season, I’ve maintained confidence that the Spartans would win this game against the Hoosiers. MSU’s talent edge vs. the Hoosiers has taken a hit due to injuries and a handful of players leaving the program, but I still think Michigan State is the better team. It’s been a rough go for interim head coach Harlon Barnett and this program over the last two months, but I see the Spartans getting a second win for Barnett this week in Bloomington. Score Prediction: Michigan State 27, Indiana 17
Aedan’s Preview, Score Prediction
Before the season, Matt and I both predicted MSU to win this game and our minds haven’t changed since. The Spartans have more talent at almost every position and even with the turmoil surrounding the program should still win the game. Interim head coach Harlon Barnett has done well keeping the team together through this tough time and the Spartans have a strong chance of winning one more game.
This game comes down to how much Michigan State’s offense can score, especially touchdowns as opposed to field goals. Indiana’s defense isn’t very good but scoring has been the Spartans biggest issue all season. I predict this game will be sloppy, considering both teams are 3-7, but the Spartans come out on top in a close game. Score Prediction: Michigan State 27, Indiana 24
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