Staff Predictions: Michigan State at Iowa
After a strong open to the season against Central Michigan and Richmond, Michigan State has been humbled over the last two weeks in double-digit losses to Washington (41-7) and Maryland (31-9). Now, the Spartans hit the road and will face a hostile environment for the first time in 2023.
Michigan State (2-2) is a 12-point underdog against Iowa (3-1) this weekend at Kinnick Stadium. The Hawkeyes lead a very tight all-time series with a 24-22-2 record against the Spartans. MSU and Iowa have not met on the gridiron since the COVID-shortened 2020 season, which resulted in a 49-7 victory for the home team in Iowa City.
The Hawkeyes defeated Utah State (24-14), Iowa State (20-13) and Western Michigan (41-10) in their first three games of 2023 and climbed to No. 24 in the Associated Press poll. However, Iowa was smacked last week at No. 6 Penn State, 31-0, in a game in which the Hawkeye offense was held under 100 total yards.
Could Michigan State get back in the win column with a surprising win as a double-digit underdog? Spartan Nation senior writer Matthew Lounsberry and contributor Aedan Mulcrone share their thoughts on the game below with 3 Bold Predictions, Game Previews, and Final Score Predictions.
Matt’s 3 Bold Predictions
1.) MSU’s defense record at least 4 sacks
This prediction certainly qualifies as bold, as the Spartans have not recorded a single sack in either of their last two games. However, Michigan State generated nine quarterback hurries against Washington, and seven last week against Maryland. While Michael Penix Jr. and Taulia Tagovailoa aren’t “dual-threat” guys, they both are quite mobile and have the ability to extend plays.
That’s not Iowa’s Cade McNamara. He’s a pocket passer who had limited mobility even before he suffered a non-contact quad injury during fall camp. If the Spartans can continue to generate pressure the way they have the last four weeks, they should be able to get home more often against McNamara.
2.) Neither team reaches 20 points scored
This has all the makings of a Big Ten rock fight. Iowa’s offense is notoriously inept under offensive coordinator Brian Ferentz. The son of head coach Kirk Ferentz was given an ultimatum before the season – lead the Hawkeyes to 25 points per game, or you’re gone. So far, Iowa is averaging just 21¼ points per game.
On the other sideline (or, more accurately, in the press box), you’ve got Michigan State’s Jay Johnson, who the Spartan faithful have just plainly seen enough from. Outside of having a generational tailback in 2021, Michigan State’s offenses have vastly underperformed under Johnson’s leadership, and there’s no reason to expect anything different against an Iowa defense.
3.) Chance Rucker intercepts a pass
I’ve been pretty bad at predicting individual guys to come up with turnovers over the last couple years (in my defense, it’s a tough thing to predict), but I’ll shoot my shot again this week and call for MSU’s true freshman cornerback to come up with his first career interception.
Rucker earned his first career start last week against Maryland, and played pretty well. Every defensive back is going to give up receptions now and again, but Rucker graded out as the Spartans’ best coverage guy against the Terps. McNamara has already thrown three interceptions this season, so there could be an opportunity here for Rucker.
Aedan’s 3 Bold Predictions
1.) Michigan State holds Iowa under 300 total yards
Michigan State has one of the toughest schedules in the country. Washington and Maryland are two high-powered offenses, but that’s not the case with Iowa. The Hawkeyes are dead last in the country in total offensive yards (244.5 per game) and there’s no reason the Spartans shouldn’t hold them under 300 yards.
Even if Jacoby Windmon and Kris Bogle are out, MSU should be able to handle this Iowa offense. Cade McNamara has not been very good so far, and the Spartans are going to focus on stopping the run to make him beat them. The pass rush should be able to ‘hit home’ and get some sacks as well after not having any the last two games.
2.) Noah Kim throws for over 250 yards
Besides Penn State quarterback Drew Allar, Kim might be the second-best quarterback Iowa has faced. It seemed against Maryland that offensive coordinator Jay Johnson took more shots downfield, which helped Michigan State move the ball better. Michigan State should be able to use their big targets such as Maliq Carr and Jaron Glover in those situations. Iowa hasn’t faced a team that has taken many deep shots yet. Penn State made a lot of short throws and let its receivers do the rest.
Michigan State runs the risk of more turnovers by taking shots, but they aren’t likely to win a night game at Iowa playing it safe. Kim needs to utilize his best playmakers, and I think he will look to Glover, Carr, and Tre Mosley often. Iowa only has three sacks this season, so Kim should have time to throw.
3.) Nathan Carter rushes for over 100 yards
Michigan State’s running game can be the reason the Spartans win or lose on Saturday. With Jalen Berger and Jaren Mangham out, Carter has carried the full load the last two games with a combined 145 rushing yards. I think he carries the load again and makes some key plays to keep the Spartans in the game.
If Carter can rush for 100 yards, he did his job. If he can rush for 150 yards or more, then Michigan State will be in a good position to win the game. Kim hasn’t run the ball as much as we thought he would, so it’s safe to say Carter will carry the majority workload again. The offensive line will need to win up front in order for Carter to get going.
Matt’s Preview, Score Prediction
Last week, Penn State ran more offensive plays (97) than Iowa had total yards (76). That speaks to the ineptitude of this Hawkeye offense, albeit against a Nittany Lion team that I consider one of the 10 best in the country.
After that dismal performance, and what looked like improvement from Michigan State’s defense in the second half against Maryland, my gut is telling me to pick the Spartans in this one. Furthermore, while Iowa’s defense has been among the nation’s best for a long time, I’m not sure they’re up to their usual billing in 2023.
With all of that said, I still can’t bring myself to pick Michigan State this weekend, in their first road game of the year, at night in Kinnick Stadium, of all places. I still don’t trust this MSU coaching staff to come up with a competent plan, even going against coaches like Brian Ferentz. I may regret going against my gut after the game, but my head tells me the safe pick is to go with the Hawkeyes. Score Prediction: Michigan State 16, Iowa 19
Aedan’s Preview, Score Prediction
Iowa is a vulnerable team that the Spartans can take advantage of. We know what the Hawkeyes can do on defense, but also know their limitations on offense. Michigan State better be prepared for a low-scoring game that could get sloppy.
I have also gone back and forth with MSU potentially winning this game. The Spartans moved the ball well against Maryland, but the five turnovers against the Terps are concerning. Giveaways have hurt Michigan State in the last two games, and the offense has managed only scored 16 total points as a result. If the Spartans are to win, they need to score early in the game and take the crowd out of the game.
But, ultimately, I think MSU falls short again. While the defensive performance improved against Maryland, the offense still has its woes. While I don’t think the Spartans will win, I wouldn’t be surprised if they pull off an upset because of how unpredictable these two teams are right now. Score Prediction: Michigan State 13, Iowa 18
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