Staff Predictions: Michigan State vs. Maryland
Despite an ugly, 41-7 loss to No. 8 Washington last weekend, Michigan State football is right where most of us expected them to be three weeks into the season.
The Spartans are 2-1 coming out of nonconference play, and all of their goals are still in front of them as they get set to open their Big Ten Conference schedule this Saturday against Maryland (3-0). Although there is plenty to be concerned about after a poor performance against the Huskies, this matchup with the Terrapins is a better measuring stick for MSU.
The Terrapins have wins over Towson, Charlotte and Virginia this season, but those opponents have combined to go just 2-7 so far this year. Despite that weak nonconference slate, Maryland opened as a four-point favorite over MSU on Sunday, and that number has grown to 7.5 points in favor of the Terrapins over the week.
Maryland defeated Michigan State last season, 27-13, in College Park, which was just the third win for the Terrapins in 13 all-time meetings with the Spartans. Since Maryland joined the Big Ten in 2014, the Terrapins have never beaten the Spartans in East Lansing. In fact, you have to go all the way back to 1950 for the last time MSU fell to Maryland at home.
With that brief history lesson out of the way, Spartan Nation senior writer Matthew Lounsberry and contributor Aedan Mulcrone share their thoughts on the game below with 3 Bold Predictions, Game Previews, and Final Score Predictions.
Matt’s 3 Bold Predictions
1.) Jordan Hall forces a turnover
It’s time for Michigan State to play its best players, and true freshman linebacker Jordan Hall is one of those guys. As stout as starter Cal Haladay is against the run, he’s struggled in pass defense throughout his career and this year has been no different. It’s time to give Hall a bigger role.
Against another offense that likes to throw the ball, Hall is a better option at linebacker in this matchup. I’m putting a lot of faith – probably too much faith – in Scottie Hazelton’s ability to recognize the need for Hall to be the primary guy at linebacker, but to heck with it. I’m calling for Jordan Hall to force a turnover against Maryland, and maybe even come up with his first career sack.
2.) Christian Fitzpatrick leads Spartans in receiving yards
You may be surprised to learn that Fitzpatrick leads MSU in receiving yards so far this season, totalling 164 yards on six catches. Most of that yardage came on just two long receptions against Central Michigan and Richmond, but the stats are what they are.
I have little faith in Michigan State’s ability to run the football at this point, so I think the Spartans are going to have to turn to Noah Kim and the receivers to keep pace with Maryland this week. With that in mind, I’ll call for Fitzpatrick to lead MSU in receiving yards again this week.
3.) Michigan State intercepts Taulia Tagovailoa at least once
Taulia Tagovailoa is a dangerous quarterback. He’s mobile, has a strong arm and can make a lot of throws. However, Tagovailoa has a tendency to put the ball in harm's way as well. He’s already got two interceptions this season.
Michigan State still has major issue with pass defense, but I still think this year’s secondary is made up of the best athletes this program has seen in the back end in quite some time. With that, I think the Spartans come up with at least one interception this weekend, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see two.
Aedan’s 3 Bold Predictions
1.) Maliq Carr catches a touchdown pass
To unlock this offense and get back on track, offensive coordinator Jay Johnson needs to utilize the tight ends. With Tyneil Hopper going down for the season, it’s safe to assume Maliq Carr will be playing a full-time role at tight end. Carr usually comes out in the red zone, but will need to play at all times for the remainder of the season.
Carr is a big target for Noah Kim to throw to. He is a mismatch wherever he’s lined up, needs to be treated like a playmaker. In order to keep the Spartans competitive in this game, I predict Carr scores a touchdown.
2.) MSU defense gets 2+ sacks
Michigan State’s defense gave up numerous big plays against Washington and I would be shocked if that wasn’t a point of emphasis this week. Dispite giving up big plays, the Spartans pressured quarterback Michael Penix Jr. nine times, and I expect more of the same this week. Having a consistent pass rush is something that has been a positive takeaway all three games so far.
This week, I think MSU ‘gets home’ on Maryland and racks up some sacks. Going against a weaker offensive line, this could be a bounce back game for the defense. Keeping Maryland quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa in the pocket will be important, because he will use his feet. However, disrupting him should be manageable for MSU all game.
3.) Quarterback Noah Kim will play the entirety of the game
Don’t get it twisted, the entire team’s performance was disappointing against Washington. Kim didn’t play particularly well, so many fans are questioning if backup Katin Houser deserves a shot. Houser scored the lone touchdown for the Spartans against Washington late in the 4th quarter.
That said, this still seems like it’s Kim’s team and he will be the starter moving forward. With coaching changes looming, some believe it would be better for the program to start Houser in order to retain him. I don’t think that will be the case yet, Kim won the starting job for a reason and there is still trust in him from his teammates.
Matt’s Preview, Score Prediction
This game could be the turning point of the season for Michigan State. The Spartans were embarrassed last week against Washington, and the circumstances surrounding the program are dire with the pending termination of head coach Mel Tucker.
Maryland’s offense isn’t as proficient in the passing game as Washington’s, but the Terrapins like to sling it around. That will provide Michigan State’s much-maligned pass defense another challenge this week. Unfortunately, nothing I saw from the Spartans’ last season suggests their up for that challenge.
Offensively, Michigan State is still struggling to run the ball consistently, but maybe they’ve got enough receiving weapons to go toe-to-toe with the Terps. If the offensive line can give quarterback Noah Kim time in the pocket, the Spartans can score on this Maryland defense. I see this being a close, competitive game, but at this point I can’t predict a victory for MSU. Score Prediction: Michigan State 23, Maryland 30
Aedan’s Preview, Score Prediction
This game could determine the remainder of the season for the spartans. This is a more evenly matched opponent for Michigan State than Washington was. If the spartans lose, you may see the focus of players deteriorate and see some potentially redshirt or transfer sometime before November. If the spartans win, players may continue to buy-in and remain focused on winning for another week.
In order for the spartans to win this game and not just keep it close, it comes down to Michigan State’s rushing attack. The offense line needs to get better movement and running back Nathan Carter needs to find the open rushing lanes.
Many predict a high scoring game but I don’t think this will be a ‘shootout’. I still believe Maryland will move the ball quite a bit, but the spartans have shown they can cause turnovers. Can they score enough points and cause enough turnovers to win? I think they’ll come close but fall just short. Score Prediction: Michigan State 20, Maryland 28
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