Staff Predictions: Michigan State at Minnesota
After five consecutive losses, Harlon Barnett and Michigan State football desperately needs a win for team morale. The Spartans have yet to win on the road this season, but that’s what they’ll attempt to do this weekend in Minneapolis.
Michigan State (2-5, 0-4 Big Ten) is a seven-point underdog heading into Week 9’s matchup against Minnesota (4-3, 2-2). The Golden Gophers, led by P.J. Fleck in his seventh season as head coach, are coming off a controversial 12-10 win over Iowa a week ago. While Michigan State holds a 30-18 all-time record against Minnesota, the Golden Gophers won the most recent matchup – a 34-7 beatdown last season in East Lansing.
Without further ado, Spartan Nation senior writer Matthew Lounsberry and contributor Aedan Mulcrone share their thoughts on the game below with 3 Bold Predictions, Game Previews, and Final Score Predictions.
Matt’s 3 Bold Predictions
1.) No special teams penalties for the Spartans
Admittedly, I’m trolling a bit here with this prediction. Special teams coordinator Ross Els has drawn the ire of the fanbase for a while now, and while one clean game from his units won’t (nor shouldn’t) be enough to save his job, maybe – just maybe – we can see the Spartans line up correctly for a punt and not get hit with an illegal formation penalty.
I’m going even bolder with this prediction. I’ll call for Michigan State to avoid any penalties with one of its special teams units on the field. Do I actually believe this will happen? Probably not. But, what the heck, let’s give it a try!
2.) Katin Houser is the only quarterback who plays for MSU
Redshirt freshman Katin Houser took over the starting job in Week 7 against Rutgers, and we have not seen Noah Kim take a snap since. There’s been questions on Kim’s health and standing with the team as a result. While the redshirt junior dressed in each of the last two games, it appears that true freshman Sam Leavitt is Michigan State’s backup quarterback for the time being.
While we saw Leavitt last week against Michigan, I expect Houser to be the only quarterback to take snaps for the Spartans this week. I see this being a tight battle, and that will keep Leavitt off the field. Assuming Houser stays healthy, he should be the only guy we see against the Gophers.
3.) Nathan Carter exceeds his per game rushing average
After a strong start to the season, the last two weeks have been a step back for starting running back Nathan Carter. The transfer from UConn rushed for only 52 yards against Rutgers, and 36 yards against Michigan. That’s brought rushing average down to 80.7 yards per game.
This week, I think Carter will get back on track and rush for at least 81 yards against Minnesota. It won’t be easy against a Golden Gopher defense that’s only allowing 119.7 yards on the ground per game, but Carter will be the feature back for the Spartans this week with Jalen Berger out for the season.
Aedan’s 3 Bold Predictions
1.) Michigan State holds Minnesota to under 250 yards of offense
This is going to be a sloppy game, as both teams have struggled offensively this season. Michigan State averages 325.4 yards of total offense per game, while Minnesota averages 302.7 per game. Adjusting for Big Ten play, the numbers get worse, with MSU averaging 288 and Minnesota averaging 264.
While the Spartans just gave up 477 yards of offense to Michigan, the majority of those yards were through the air. Minnesota’s passing offense ranks 126th (of 130) in the country in passing offense, averaging 131.9 yards per game. Michigan State’s defense should be able to handle this offense and keep big plays, which were a large part of why they gave up 49 points to Michigan, to a minimum.
2.) Spartans rush for over 125 yards
With Jalen Berger out for the season, Nathan Carter is back taking the majority of the rushing load for the offense. We have also seen Katin Houser run the ball to help MSU’s ground attack as welll. The Spartans’ offensive line performed well against Iowa and Rutgers, and I expect them to do well against Minnesota too.
Houser and running back Jaren Mangham being back will be the key for the rushing attack. Carter has been the best player this season on offense, so defenses have prepared for him. Houser and Mangham will complement Carter in the rushing attack, and the Spartans will rack up more than 125 yards on the ground.
3.) Michigan State gets shut out in the second half
Michigan State will be able to run the ball, but that only gets them so far. The Spartans have not been active in the intermediate and deep passing game, and that’s what they need to win this game. The lack of big plays has been part of the reason they have struggled to score this season.
Minnesota’s defense has stepped up in the second half of games, while Michigan State’s offense has fizzled out in the second half the last three games. Ultimately, this determines the game – if the Spartans find points in the second half they can win because of how low-scoring this game will be. But, I have not been given a reason to believe they will score in the second half after watching the previous games.
Matt’s Preview, Score Prediction
Going back to the offseason leadup to this year, I’ve been on Michigan State to win this game in Minneapolis. Unfortunately, that changed when the Spartans blew a 24-6 lead in the fourth quarter against Rutgers two weeks ago.
I never expected MSU to be able to hang with rival Michigan this last weekend, but we didn’t even see the typical fight out of the Spartans we usually get in that rivalry game. I just think all the circumstances surrounding this season have taken too big a toll on this Michigan State team. The head coach was fired amidst controversy, injuries have once again piled up and the depth of this roster has been sapped. I won’t be surprised in the least if the Spartans manage to scrap out a victory here, because I’m not very impressed with Minnesota, but I also can’t call for MSU to win after what we’ve seen over the past five games. Score Prediction: Michigan State 17, Minnesota 23
Aedan’s Preview, Score Prediction
The point total for this game is set at 40.5, and watching both teams last week gives me no reason to believe they will come close to that. This will be a low-scoring affair, consisting of a lot of punts and running the football.
Harlon Barnett is still looking for his first win as a head coach, and this is a big opportunity for him. Michigan State should be within a possession of Minnesota the whole game, with the chance to take the lead in the fourth quarter. But, the Spartans fall short of that in the end, covering the spread but not winning outright. Score Prediction: Michigan State 10, Minnesota 14
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