Staff Predictions: Michigan State vs. No. 2 Michigan
If there’s one thing we know for certain, it’s that ‘Hate Week’ always delivers.
We won’t lie, things were pretty quiet around these parts from Sunday through Wednesday this week, as Michigan State (2-4, 0-3 Big Ten) prepared to host No. 2 Michigan (7-0, 4-0) as a 24-point underdog at home. The way the Spartans lost to Rutgers, blowing an 18-point lead in fourth quarter with a string of special teams miscues, seemed to take the last wind out of the torn and tattered sails of this fanbase’s interest in MSU Football.
Then, Thursday arrived, and with it renewed interest in a rivalry that’s as rich in disdain as any in the country. That, of course, was ignited by the NCAA’s announcement of a new investigation into Michigan football and its scouting practices. (For more on that, click here.)
In the midst of that, there will be a game played on Saturday night – the 116th all-time meeting between the Spartans and the Wolverines on the gridiron. While Michigan leads the series 72-38-5 overall, it’s been a much tighter battle over the last 70 years. Since the Paul Bunyan Trophy was added to the rivalry, the Wolverines hold just a 39-29-2 edge in the series.
Without further ado, Spartan Nation senior writer Matthew Lounsberry and contributor Aedan Mulcrone share their thoughts on the game below with 3 Bold Predictions, Game Previews, and Final Score Predictions.
Matt’s 3 Bold Predictions
1.) Michigan State first to score over 10 pts vs. Wolverines
Michigan’s defense is No. 1 in the country in points allowed this season, surrendering just 6.7 per game. The Wolverines have yet to allow an opponent eclipse 10 points in a single game. That will change on Saturday night
While Michigan State’s offense has been inconsistent at best and downright anemic at worst, the Spartans will pull out all the stops in this game. Redshirt freshman quarterback Katin Houser played well in his debut as a starter last week against Rutgers, and showed why he’s a former four-star recruit. Tailback Nathan Carter has been the Spartans best offensive player this season, and why saw good things out of his running mate Jalen Berger against the Scarlet Knights. I certainly don’t expect a scoring clinic from Michigan State, but I think they’ll be balanced enough to put some drives together and eclipse 10 points.
2.) Under 3.5 unsportsmanlike penalties combined between the two teams
Historically, this has been one of the chippiest and most-physical games in college football, and that often leads to late hits, cheap shots and what-have-you. However, I see this year’s game playing out differently.
Awareness has been heightened following last season’s tunnel incident at Michigan Stadium, and neither program wants to get caught up in that. Michigan is one of the least-penalized teams in the country, and MSU interim coach Harlon Barnett has put an emphasis on reducing penalties for weeks. There will still plenty of trash talk, and more than likely some chippiness, but I don’t think it will rise to level to where we’re seeing yellow flags left and right.
3.) Vegas nails the point-spread
This might be the boldest prediction I’ve ever made. I don’t mean that as a shot at the oddsmakers in Vegas, they’re unbelievably good at what they do. It’s just insanely difficult to predict the point spread with 100 percent accuracy.
That’s what I’m attempting to do, however. As of Friday afternoon, Caesar’s Sportsbook (via ESPN) has Michigan as a 24-point favorite in this matchup. Like it or not, many folks on both sides of the rivalry believe the Wolverines will win by a bigger margin. But, I like the number coming out of Vegas. I’ve got U-M by 24 in this game.
Aedan’s 3 Bold Predictions
1.) The Spartans will lead at halftime
They’re called bold predictions for a reason. The way the Spartans started against Rutgers gives some merit to this prediction. Katin Houser led MSU to a touchdown on their first drive and was consistent throughout the first half. Michigan State scored 17 in the first half against the Scarlet Knights, more than they scored in the complete two games previous.
Michigan doesn’t have much film on Houser (whether they scouted him in-person or not) so the offense may have some wrinkles we haven’t seen yet. It seemed like Houser didn’t take any deep shots downfield by design against Rutgers so that Michigan wouldn’t have any film to prepare for it. MSU’s defense is coming around as well, forcing turnovers of late, and could get some stops against Michigan’s offense.
Michigan hasn’t played a tough opponent yet. Not that the Spartans are some daunting team, but they come prepared for this game almost every year. Similar to last year’s game, I could see this being a close game going into halftime.
2.) MSU forces two turnovers
A mix of Michigan State’s defense playing well and the weather being unpredictable is a recipe for potential turnovers. I feel confident saying Michigan hasn’t played a defense as good as the Spartans’ so far this season. The key for Michigan State’s success defensively will be field position.
In this game last season, Michigan State was able to force turnovers, and they have improved since. Granted, Michigan’s offense is closer to Washington or Maryland than Iowa or Rutgers, but the Spartans should still give them a run for their money. MSU’s rush defense has to come up big in order for the Spartans to have a chance in this game.
3.) WR Montorie Foster grabs a touchdown
Foster played well against Rutgers and seemed to be the popular target for Houser. He has underrated speed and has made big plays in games before. When defense’s start to focus on threats like Maliq Carr, Nathan Carter and Tre Mosley, that’s when Foster becomes dangerous.
In order for the Spartans to have a chance to win, they need someone outside of Carr, Carter, and Mosley to step up. Foster is one of the older receivers on this team and needs to step up on the big stage, and Houser gives him an opportunity to step up in a big way.
Matt’s Preview, Score Prediction
I don’t think it's hyperbolic to suggest Michigan State will be the most-talented team Michigan has faced this season. The recruiting rankings back that statement up. Admittedly, this says more about the Wolverines’ schedule than it does MSU’s roster, but I digress.
My biggest concern heading into this week was not being sure where the Spartans would be mentally. Yes, MSU always seems to put its most-competitive foot forward against the Wolverines, but the way this team lost to Rutgers made me question if there would be any fire left to ignite.
Having mentioned those concerns, given the news that broke Thursday, as well as the attitude of Michigan State’s players this week during media availability, I think the Spartans will have some juice in this game. Make no mistake, they are overmatched here, but Michigan State isn’t going to roll over and let their rival embarrass them at home. I don’t think the Spartans have the horses to go toe-to-toe for four quarters, but this won’t be the splattering many expected it to be early this week. Score Prediction: Michigan State 17, Michigan 41
Aedan’s Preview, Score Prediction
I’ve changed my prediction from our podcast on Wednesday. I think it will be a closer game than many expect. This feels like the last opportunity for Harlon Barnett to keep this team engaged before the wheels fall off. The players seem to like him and they will respond positively in this game.
That said, I think the end result remains the same. October weather in Michigan is unpredictable and that favors the Spartans, but Michigan is still a juggernaut. Michigan State will test the Wolverines for a good amount of the game, but MSU falls short. I see Michigan winning by two scores where they breakaway in the end. Score Prediction: Michigan State 20, Michigan 31
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