Staff Predictions: Michigan State vs. Nebraska
What has been a difficult and forgettable season for Michigan State football is entering its final month. The Spartans, losers of six games in the row, need to win out in order to earn bowl eligibility. With games remaining against No. 1 Ohio State and No. 11 Penn State, the prospects of that are unlikely, at best.
But first, Michigan State (2-6, 0-5 Big Ten) will play host to Nebraska (5-3, 3-2) on ‘Senior Night’ for the Spartans. MSU is three-point underdog as of early Friday evening against the Cornhuskers. It will be the 13th all-time meeting between Michigan State and Nebraska, with the Cornhuskers holding a 9-3 record all-time in this series. The Spartans are 3-4 against Nebraska since the Cornhuskers joined the Big Ten back in 2011.
Without further ado, Spartan Nation senior writer Matthew Lounsberry and contributor Aedan Mulcrone share their thoughts on the game below with 3 Bold Predictions, Game Previews, and Final Score Predictions.
Matt’s 3 Bold Predictions
1.) Michigan State scores first
This isn’t my boldest of takes, but offense has certainly been hard to come by for the Spartans, and they’ve had very few opening drives that have resulted in points. It’s hard to know how much MSU has left in the tank after what has been a grueling seven weeks for this program, but one has to think the Spartans will come out and play hard for their seniors.
While this team hasn’t done much winning this season, it does still seem like the player leadership of this group – guys like Aaron Brule, Tre Mosley and J.D. Duplain – have managed to hold things together. I expect redshirt junior Katin Houser to continue to start at quarterback, and an opening drive score would do well to boost his confidence after a couple rough weeks back-to-back.
2.) MSU’s defense forces two turnovers
Nebraska has been turnover prone this season, and Michigan State has been opportunistic at times defensively this season. The Spartans forced three turnovers – two fumbles, one interception – last weekend against Minnesota, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them force a couple takeaways in this one as well.
Outside of games against No. 3 Michigan and No. 5 Washington, Michigan State’s defense has actually performed pretty well this season. The Spartans are mostly stout against the run, and Nebraska really struggles to throw the ball. That could lead to opportunities for the Spartan secondary to make a couple game-changing plays.
3.) QB Katin Houser throws for over 150 yards
Again, not the most bold take here, but in three starts the most Houser has thrown for in a single game this season is the 133 passing yards he had in his first start at Rutgers. The redshirt freshman has struggled to move the ball the last two weeks against Michigan and Minnesota, and that’s led some to begin calling for true freshman Sam Leavitt to get the start this weekend.
I like what I saw from Leavitt last week, and I’d be highly inclined to give him a shot at starting. With that said, however, I think MSU’s coaching staff will stick with Houser this week, and I think we’ll see a better performance out of the second-year Spartan.
Aedan’s 3 Bold Predictions
1.) The Spartans force two turnovers
One of the few positive takeaways the last few games for MSU is its defense’s ability to force turnovers. Michigan State forced three turnovers each against Minnesota and Rutgers, and two against Iowa. While Nebraska has improved, the Cornhuskers are still prone to losing the ball, as they have nine giveaways in the last three games.
Michigan State’s recent aptitude for forcing turnovers can be credited to its improving ‘front seven’ – the defensive line and linebackers. MSU’s front seven forced two fumbles last week against Minnesota on the Gophers first two drives, one caused by star freshman linebacker Jordan Hall. The Spartans also have seven interceptions this season, which is a credit to the improving defensive backfield but also the defensive front for pressuring quarterbacks into making poor decisions.
2.) QB Sam Leavitt starts the 4th quarter
The Spartans are still figuring out who this team’s best quarterback is, not only this season but for the future. Katin Houser has started the last three games, but has only finished one of them (against Rutgers). With the development of Noah Kim’s injury, this has given Sam Leavitt an opportunity to be the backup.
Leavitt did well when he came in at the end of the Minnesota game. He led the Spartans to their only touchdown of the last two games and led the team in rushing with 52 yards against the Golden Gophers. Michigan State is looking for any possible spark on offense, and the true freshman was able to give them that last week. Leavitt has played in three games already this season, and can only appear in one more before without burning a potential redshirt season. That’s something to monitor for the remainder of the season. This may be the last time we see him this year.
3.) The Spartans give up a special teams touchdown…again
Nebraska is a scrappy team that has taken advantage of opponents weaknesses and mistakes. They are sound in special teams and I think they will take advantage of that against Michigan State, who seems to be all over the place in that department. Last week against Purdue, the Cornhuskers blocked a field goal and returned it for a touchdown.
Michigan State’s field goal unit has been one of the bright spots this season, but the punt unit has struggled mightily. Nebraska could take advantage of that and either block a punt or make it the third punt returned for a touchdown against the Spartans this season.
Matt’s Preview, Score Prediction
Like games against Iowa, Rutgers and Minnesota, I won’t be surprised if Michigan State wins this game. However, just like I said against each of those three previous opponents, I can’t bring myself to pick the Spartans to win based on all the ways we’ve seen them lose this season.
Despite a six-game losing streak, I don’t believe this team has quit on this season. There’s still a lot of guys in that locker room who care. Unfortunately, this roster has been stripped of much of its depth and talent both by injuries and a few key departures. Furthermore, this coaching staff seems to be in over their heads. Interim head coach Harlon Barnett is a standup guy, and it would be nice to see him and his seniors get in a win in the final game in Spartan Stadium this season. But, Nebraska has seemed to find itself in recent weeks, and I like the Cornhuskers to win this one. Score Prediction: Michigan State 17, Nebraska 23
Aedan’s Preview, Score Prediction
I don’t take joy in picking against the Spartans, but watching the last six games hasn’t given me a reason to pick them to win. Nebraska has won five of its last six games, and has seemed to improve every week. The Cornhuskers’ run defense is stout and is capable of shutting MSU tailback Nathan Carter down, and Michigan State’s has struggled to get the passing game going regardless of who’s taking snaps at quarterback.
Even in years where Michigan State has been good, Nebraska seems to have the Spartans’ number. Nebraska is building some structure in their program, while Michigan State’s structure seems to be falling apart. I have the Cornhuskers clinching bowl game eligibility on Saturday for the first time since 2016. Score Prediction: Michigan State 13, Nebraska 34
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