Staff Predictions: Michigan State at No. 1 Ohio State
After a tough seven-week stretch, Michigan State football got the proverbial monkey off its back last weekend when the Spartans defeated Nebraska, 20-17, to end a six-game losing skid.
Fresh off his first win as interim head coach, Harlon Barnett knows Michigan State (3-6, 1-5 Big Ten) has a huge challenge on its hands this weekend with a road trip to Columbus to take on No. 1 Ohio State (9-0, 6-0). Saturday will mark the 52nd all-time meeting between the Spartans and the Buckeyes, with OSU holding a 36-15 edge in the series.
This matchup has not been kind to Michigan State over the past three seasons, as the Buckeyes have outscored the Spartans 157-37 during the stretch. MSU enters this year’s game as a 31.5-point underdog, but there’s precedence for an upset of epic proportions in this series’ history. On two occasions, the Spartans have beaten the Buckeyes while the latter was the No. 1 ranked team in the country, first in 1972 in East Lansing and again in 1998 in Columbus.
Without further ado, Spartan Nation senior writer Matthew Lounsberry and contributor Aedan Mulcrone share their thoughts on the game below with 3 Bold Predictions, Game Previews, and Final Score Predictions.
Matt’s 3 Bold Predictions
1.) Michigan State holds Ohio State under 425 offensive yards
This doesn’t look like all that bold of a prediction, but it would be marked improvement for a Spartans program which has had a hard time not only holding down Ohio State’s offense in recent years. Not to mention each of the two other Top 10 opponents they’ve faced this season.
In the last three meetings against the Buckeyes, Michigan State has allowed yardage totals of 521 (2020), 655 (2021) and 614 (614). Earlier this season, the Spartans allowed 713 yards of offense to Washington and 477 yards to Michigan. With that said, this year’s Ohio State offense has not been as explosive or devastating as in year’s past. The Buckeyes rank 48th in total offense so far this season, including 91st in rushing offense.
By no means do I believe Michigan State will shut Ohio State down for four quarters, but I see the Spartans’ defense hanging tough in the early-goings.
2.) Jordan Hall gets 2 TFLs
Michigan State’s defense has some young players to build around for the future, none of whom are more important than freshman linebacker Jordan Hall. The kid looks like a future All-Big Ten player, and he’s the type of talent MSU needs to play well in games like these. As mentioned above, Ohio State’s run game has struggled at times this season, and Michigan State has been solid against the run as a defense. We’ll see if Hall can get in the backfield on a pair of occasions and come up with a couple stops before the line of scrimmage.
3.) Michigan State scores under 7 points
I usually try to avoid negative bold predictions for these pieces, but I think Michigan State’s offense is really going to struggle against this Buckeye defense. Ohio State ranks 5th in the country in total offense allowed, 4th in passing yards allowed and 2nd in points allowed per game.
On the other side, the Spartans don’t have an identity on offense. They can’t run the ball (118th in rush yards per game) and they’ve got two young quarterbacks who have never seen a defense as talented as the one they’ll face on Saturday. I’m just not sure where the offense will come from for Michigan State, unless the defense can force a couple turnovers and give the offense a short field.
Aedan’s 3 Bold Predictions
1.) MSU within one possession at halftime
As we have seen this year, the Spartans aren’t the greatest first half team. Michigan State has struggled to get drives going early in several games, but we have seen faster starts against Rutgers, Iowa and Nebraska. MSU scored early in those matchups and have either led or been tied going into halftime of those games. Against the Scarlet Knights and Hawkeeys, finishing the game was the issue.
Luckily, Ohio State isn’t the greatest first half team either. The Buckeyes tend to finish games strong with their loads of talent, but don’t start hot out of the gates. Saturday could be a one-possession game going into halftime, which is promising for the Spartans. Michigan State has shown toughness in spurts this season, and I think we see it again in the first half of this game.
2.) Spartans force 2 turnovers again
This goes hand-in-hand with my first bold prediction. Ohio State has thrown five interceptions this season and lost five fumbles, many of which have come in the first half of games. Outside of the Michigan and Washington games, the Spartans have done well forcing turnovers on defense. Now, granted, Ohio State is the same caliber team as the other two, but they have looked more shaky offensively than Washington or Michigan.
Covering Ohio State’s wide receivers will be a tall task, and that goes for any team in the country. The way to stop (or slow down) the Buckeyes’ offense is pressuring quarterback Kyle McCord into making bad throws. Part of the reason Michigan and Washington were comfortable throwing was their strong offensive line play. Ohio State’s line isn’t as good, and the Spartans can get pressure on McCord, which could lead to turnovers.
3.) Katin Houser throws for over 150 yards
Arguably the biggest question for the Spartans going into the game is ‘will Sam Leavitt play’? Already appearing in four games this year, playing in another game this season would mean the true freshman would have to burn his redshirt and use a year of eligibility. Regardless of whether Leavitt plays or not, I do believe Katin Houser will get the majority of the snaps this game.
Ohio State has the best defense Michigan State will have seen this year (as shocking as that sounds), so Houser throwing for over 150 yards is pure optimism. Ohio State is No. 25 in the country in rush defense and No. 4 in the country in passing defense. Michigan State’s offensive line will have its hands full with OSU’s ‘front seven’ which will eliminate the Spartans’ run game. You have to pick your poison with the Buckeyes, and the only way the Spartans stand a chance is if they throw the ball.
Matt’s Preview, Score Prediction
As I said above, I’m not sure where Michigan State will find offense in this game. Ohio State has one of the top defenses in the country statistically, and the Spartans are very limited. After a very strong start to the season, running back Nathan Carter has essentially been a non-factor for MSU in recent weeks. Carter hasn’t found the end zone since Week 2 against Richmond.
On the other side of the ball, I think we’ll see a “better-than-expected” effort from the Spartans defense. The Buckeyes still have all kinds of talent at the skill positions, as always, but quarterback Kyle McCord is not playing anywhere near the level of a C.J. Stroud or Justin Fields or Dwayne Haskins. Ohio State’s offensive line is good, but not great, and MSU may be able to make the Buckeyes one-dimensional by stopping the run. With that said, the lack of offensive production for Michigan State will eventually wear on the Spartans’ defense, and the Buckeyes will pull away in the second half of this one. Score Prediction: Michigan State 0, Ohio State 38
Aedan’s Preview, Score Prediction
This is a program Michigan State has struggled mightily against dating back to 2017. In MSU’s 3-9 season in 2016, the Spartans only lost this game by one point, 17-16. However, since then, the Spartans have been outscored by a total of 265-58 against Ohio State. This matchup has been an uphill battle the last eight seasons for MSU and I expect another one in a night game on the road. I want to be optimistic that the Spartans can score and keep it close for a half, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they get shut out.
The difference this year is Ohio State’s offense, which isn’t what it has been in previous years like Matt said above. The Buckeyes have consistently started slow and finished strong, and I expect that again this week. Michigan State will be riding some momentum after winning last week, but this Buckeye team is a whole different animal than Nebraska. Ultimately, the teams MSU has been blown out by this season have had significantly more talent than the Spartans, and Ohio State fits that description. Score Prediction: Michigan State 10, Ohio State 38
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