Staff Predictions: Michigan State vs. No. 11 Penn State
With two wins in its last three games, Michigan State football looks to continue its strong conclusion to the 2023 season on Black Friday in Detroit.
The Spartans (4-7 overall, 2-6 Big Ten) will host No. 11 Penn State (9-2, 6-2) at Ford Field in the 38th all-time meeting between the two programs. At stake is the Land-Grant Trophy, which was introduced to this series when the Nittany Lions joined the Big Ten in 1993. Michigan State and Penn State have played to an 18-18-1 record in the previous 37 meetings, though the Nittany Lions hold a 17-10 edge in the trophy series.
With a win, the Spartans would keep their slim hopes for a bowl berth alive by finishing the season at 5-7. There likely won’t be enough 6-6 or better teams to fill the bowl slots, which leaves the door open for MSU. None of that is possible without a Michigan State victory, however, and that’s a tall task with the Spartans being 21-point underdogs to Penn State.
Without further ado, Spartan Nation senior writer Matthew Lounsberry and contributor Aedan Mulcrone share their thoughts on this year’s game below with 3 Bold Predictions, Game Previews, and Final Score Predictions.
Matt’s 3 Bold Predictions
1.) MSU puts together three scoring drives
Michigan State’s offense has struggled through much of this season, but the Spartans have figured some things out in the pass game with Katin Houser, Montorie Foster and Maliq Carr. I don’t have much faith in MSU’s ability to run the football against Penn State, particularly with Nathan Carter battling injury, but I see the Spartans putting together a trio of scoring drives on Friday.
2.) Michigan State covers the spread
In the three games against No. 2 Ohio State, No. 3 Michigan and No. 4 Washington, Michigan State was outscored 128-10, which is a ghastly margin. While No. 11 Penn State is a good to very good team, the Nittany Lions aren’t at the caliber of those three opponents. With that, I think a 21-point spread is too much, and I’ll take Michigan State to cover.
My only concern with this bold prediction is the fact that the Spartans’ roster has been decimated, mostly by injury but also with a handful of departures from the program. Michigan State entered last week’s game against Indiana with roughly 45 scholarship players — teams are allowed 85 scholarships per season, for reference. There could be even more guys out for MSU on Friday, which has me concerned.
3.) Michigan State produces a red zone turnover
The Spartans have been turnover prone this season, with their 21 giveaways tied for 118th (out of 130) in the country. However, the 16 turnovers that Michigan State’s defense have produced is tied for 52nd in the country. Penn State, meanwhile, is the No. 1 team in the nation in terms of turnover margin, so forcing the Nittany Lions into a mistake will be difficult. This is certainly a bold prediction, but I see the Spartans forcing a turnover at the most opportune time – when they’re backed up into the red zone.
Aedan’s 3 Bold Predictions
1.) Katin Houser throws for two touchdowns
Houser showed last week against Indiana what he brings to the program moving forward. While he did throw two interceptions, the freshman also threw for 245 passing yards and three touchdowns. Michigan State was more willing to air it out than they have for much of the season, with Houser’s 41 pass attempts vs. the Hoosiers shattering his old game record of 28.
I expect the Spartans to throw the ball more this game too, and it helps when you have weapons who are playing like tight end Maliq Carr is right now. The difference Carr makes, not only to Houser but the team, when healthy is big. He’s a large target for Houser, and one opposing defenses have to game plan for. If Penn State elects to double-team him, that leaves other receivers open and opportunities for big plays.
2.) Michigan State has more passing yards than Penn State
The Nittany Lions are not one of the better passing teams in the country. Sophomore Drew Allar has the tools to be a great quarterback, but Penn State lacks the play-calling and wide receivers to maximize his potential. Michigan State has been the same way at times, but I expect the Spartans to throw the ball more in this game.
Penn State won’t throw the ball as much with their ability to run the ball effectively. Their running back tandem of Kaytron Allen and Nick Singleton is one of the best in the country with 1,298 combined rushing yards. On the other side of the ball, the Spartans have one of the worst rushing attacks in the country (No. 123 of 131) going against Penn State’s ‘front seven’ which is one of the best in the country. MSU doesn’t have a choice but to throw, while Penn State will be comfortable running the ball.
3.) The Spartans get an interception
While the Nittany Lions have issues in the passing game, Allar has only recorded one interception this season. That changes Friday, as the Spartans collect their 10th interception of the year. Michigan State’s defensive backs have been as battle-tested as any secondary in the country this season going up against the likes of Washington, Maryland, Michigan and Ohio State. Penn State lacks size from their wide receivers which benefits Michigan State’s more physical secondary.
Matt’s Preview, Score Prediction
I’m a big advocate for college games being played on college campuses. That’s my preference, though playing this game once in Ford Field will be a nice experience for players on both sides. With that said, I wonder what the crowd makeup will look like in Detroit, where there’s a large contingent of Michigan State fans. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a majority of Green and White attire at Ford Field, but I also wouldn’t be shocked if there’s a bit of a Penn State takeover, due to the success the Nittany Lions have enjoyed this season.
Ultimately, I don’t think that factors into the outcome of this game much. As I mentioned above, Michigan State’s roster has diminished as the season has gone on, and I don’t think the Spartans can go toe-to-toe with the Nittany Lions for four quarters in their current state. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Michigan State hang around early, but eventually Penn State’s superior depth and talent decide this game. Score Prediction: Michigan State 13, Penn State 31
Aedan’s Preview, Score Prediction
I’m not sure how many fans are sold on giving up a home game to play at Ford Field, but I think it’s an idea worth trying. With the large alumni base in metro-Detroit, the Spartans should draw a larger crowd than they usually do on Thanksgiving weekend at Spartan Stadium. In the future, I do think it will be more appealing when Michigan State is having a more successful season.
Penn State is a very good football team, but they aren’t a juggernaut that Michigan or Ohio State is this season. Like other James Franklin teams, the Nittany Lions are physical and like to run the ball down your throat. I expect Michigan State to come out strong in this game playing at Ford Field and in what we assume is Harlon Barnett’s last game as interim head coach. In the end, Penn State makes some mistakes but doesn’t let those mistakes multiply, and they beat the Spartans convincingly. Score Prediction: Michigan State 17, Penn State 31
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