Staff Predictions: Michigan State vs. Rutgers
Following three consecutive losses, Michigan State’s 2023 football season is on the brink heading into a Week Seven matchup on the road at Rutgers.
The Spartans are still four wins away from earning bowl eligibility, and that quest likely comes to a crossroads on Saturday against the Scarlet Knights. Three of MSU’s remaining seven games will be played against Associated Press Top 10 opponents, meaning the Spartans likely need to win the other four to earn a bowl bid.
The toughest of those four opponents might be Rutgers (4-2), which has improved in increments over the last four years during head coach Greg Schiano’s second stint with the program. While there still appears to be a ceiling on RU, these aren’t the same Scarlet Knights which were the doormat of the Big Ten Conference from 2015 through 2019.
Michigan State enters the matchup as a 4.5-point underdog, the fourth consecutive week the Spartans’ opponent has been favored in the matchup. MSU holds a 10-4 record all-time against Rutgers, and has only been beaten once by the Scarlet Knights (2020) since RU joined the Big Ten back in 2014. Michigan State won the most recent matchup, 27-21, over Rutgers last year in East Lansing.
Spartan Nation senior writer Matthew Lounsberry and contributor Aedan Mulcrone share their thoughts on the game below with 3 Bold Predictions, Game Previews, and Final Score Predictions.
Matt’s 3 Bold Predictions
1.) Katin Houser starts at quarterback
I’m not sure how ‘bold’ this really is, given the rumors that made their rounds during Michigan State’s bye week which suggested Katin Houser had been named the starter vs. Rutgers. With that said, until we actually No. 12 trot onto the field with the first team offense at the start of a game, we won’t know for sure.
Having said that, I do expect Houser to be the guy this weekend. Nothing against incumbent starter Noah Kim, but the Spartans need to try to jumpstart an offense which has struggled mightily over the past three weeks. That’s not to say Houser is going to come in and save the season for MSU – there are more problems than just quarterback with this team – but maybe the redshirt freshman can add some new elements and excitement to a season which has gone downhill quickly in East Lansing.
2.) Katin Houser throws first career TD pass
We’re doubling-down on the above prediction with another here, as I expect Houser will throw the first touchdown pass of his collegiate career on Saturday. If you’re going to play the kid, who’s arm talent has been talked about ever since he first committed to Michigan State, you might as well let him sling it around.
A bright spot for the Spartans’ offense this season has been tailback Nathan Carter. You can expect Rutgers to key in on trying to stop the run and slow Carter down. While I think Carter will have some success on the ground anyway, that should open things up for Houser to take some shots downfield (or in the red zone) out of play-action.
3.) Michigan State covers the spread
The betting line on this game has moved up and down quite a bit as the week has progressed. Michigan State opened as a four-point underdog, and that line moved as high as six (from what I saw) before trending back down and settling at 4.5 by Friday.
I expect a low-scoring, grind-it-out type of game on Saturday. Michigan State will have to do a much better job of limiting turnovers and penalties than they did two weeks ago at Iowa. I expect some improvement in those areas and I think the Spartans will keep this one close.
Aedan’s 3 Bold Predictions
1.) Rutgers won’t score in two quarters of the game
In any two quarters of the game, Rutgers won’t score. Michigan State’s defense has been better as of late, while Rutgers’ offense has struggled against better teams. Even with MSU starting linebacker Jacoby Windmon out, I think the Spartans can post two shutout quarters.
In order for this to happen, the Spartans’ pass rush needs to be revived and get a couple of sacks. MSU’s pass defense has improved since the Washington game, and should be able to handle Rutgers’ receiving core.
It should be noted this defense is very young, starting a true freshman (Jordan Hall) along with four sophomores (Jaden Mangham, Malik Spencer, Dillon Tatum, and Zion Young). The Scarlet Knights can get sloppy on offense, and this is an opportunity for this young defense to take advantage of that and build some confidence.
2.) Nathan Carter goes over 100 rushing yards again
A standout performance against Iowa was Michigan State’s offensive line in the running game. The Spartans looked much improved, allowing for Nathan Carter to rush for 108 yards on 5.4 yards per carry. Rutgers has a worse defense than Iowa and Carter should be able to gash the Scarlet Knights for big plays.
While Carter has played well, the Spartans need another running back in the mix. The transfer from UConn is playing almost every snap in the backfield for MSU, and it’s possible he could be even more effective with a chance to catch his breath on the sideline now and again. While Jaren Mangham has been out all year, we saw Jalen Berger return to action two weeks ago against Iowa. Maybe more help for Carter is on the way this week.
3.) Jaron Glover catches a touchdown pass
In theory, the Spartans should be able to finish drives and get touchdowns against Rutgers, something they struggled to do against Iowa and ultimately cost them the game. With a bye week and time to prepare against a worse defense this weekend, Michigan State should find the end zone more frequently on Saturday.
I think Jaron Glover needs to be a big target this week. The redshirt freshman is averaging 21.2 yards per catch this season, but has yet to score a touchdown. The Spartans need to find him in the red zone, whoever the quarterback might be.
Matt’s Preview, Score Prediction
There’s not really any outcome in this game that would surprise me. I could see Michigan State come out of the bye week, play very well and get a much-needed victory by double-digits. I can see the Spartans plagued by the same issues we’ve seen over the previous three games (penalties and turnovers), and see an improved Rutgers squad take advantage and win big. I can also see either team win a close one (which is what I expect).
While I think Michigan State will play better than they did against Iowa, part of me thinks Rutgers might be a better team than the Hawkeyes, and that’s concerning. I certainly believe the Spartans can win this game, but I don’t trust this team or coaching staff right now. Until I see MSU play a clean, complete game, I just can’t pick them to win a road game against a team I think is better than most people realize. Score Prediction: Michigan State 20, Rutgers 23
Aedan’s Preview, Score Prediction
I don’t know why I have confidence that Michigan State is going to win, but I do. The bye week gave the Spartans extra time to prepare for the game and sort out some problems they’ve had so far this season. MSU’s defense has improved and shouldn’t be scrambling like they were against Washington or Maryland.
Who the starting quarterback will be is be the biggest question going into this game. We’ve seen what Noah Kim can and can’t do, but have the coaches seen enough of him to move on to Katin Houser or Sam Leavitt? Regardless, the Spartans still have more talent than Rutgers and should be able to score more than what they have in the past three games. Score Prediction: Michigan State 21, Rutgers 17
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