Staff Predictions: Michigan State vs. No. 8 Washington
Michigan State handled its two tune-up games against Central Michigan and Richmond, and now it’s time for the Spartans to surge headlong into the heart of their 2023 season.
The true task begins this Saturday, when Michigan State (2-0) plays host to No. 8 Washington (2-0) in a rematch of last year’s Week 3 road game in Seattle. The Spartans fell to the Huskies, 39-28, a year ago. The 2023 contest will mark the fifth all-time meeting between the two programs, with Washington holding a 3-1 edge in the series. Michigan State won the first ever meeting, 27-11, in 1969, while the Huskies earned victories in 1970 (42-16) and 1997 (51-23).
With nine consecutive wins dating back to last season, Washington brings the third-longest active winning streak in college football to East Lansing, trailing only Georgia (19) and Fresno State (11). Unfortunately, this weekend’s game has been overshadowed by the suspension of MSU head coach Mel Tucker over sexual harassment allegations, but the Spartan faithful are ready to push that situation to the side and focus on and support the players and remaining coaching staff this weekend.
Secondary coach Harlon Barnett has been named acting head coach, and the winningest head coach in Michigan State football history, Mark Dantonio, has agreed to return in an associate role to help the program during this tumultuous time. The Spartans will honor the 10-year anniversary of the 2013 Rose Bowl champion team on Saturday. Despite the circumstances, it’ll be nice to have Dantonio back on staff the day of that celebration.
Without further ado, Spartan Nation senior writer Matthew Lounsberry and contributor Aedan Mulcrone share their thoughts on the game below with 3 Bold Predictions, Game Previews, and Final Score Predictions.
Matt’s 3 Bold Predictions
1.) Michigan State scores first
I think Spartan Stadium is going to be on fire this Saturday. It’s an evening kickoff at 5 p.m., and emotions are running high after Tucker’s suspension. I believe the fanbase will rally around its football team this weekend, and give them a rowdy homefield advantage.
With the Spartan Stadium crowd at their backs, I see the Spartans getting off to a strong start, and I’ll call for them to score the first points of the game, which will only serve to intensify the gathered crowd.
2.) The Spartans exceed 100 yards rushing
This may not sound like a bold prediction, but Michigan State was held to just 42 rushing yards against the Huskies last season, and it was one of the major reasons the Spartans struggled in that game.
MSU’s offensive line and tight end groups have shown some improvement in run blocking through two weeks in 2023, and that will need to carry over into this game for the Spartans to have a shot at the upset. UConn transfer Nathan Carter has already proven his value, having rushed for over 100 yards himself in each of the first two games. Carter currently leads the Big Ten in rushing yards, and is tied for the lead in rushing touchdowns.
Washington will be tougher to run against than CMU or Richmond, but Michigan State will outperform last season’s rushing total by a wide margin.
3.) Tre Mosley gets 7+ catches, 85+ yards and a TD
I’m stealing this one from one of our listeners on the YouTube channel – shout out to you, KeysToWisdom — but I added the touchdown on the end.
In last years game against the Huskies, Mosley was MSU’s third-leading receiver with five catches for 64 yards and a score. I think Mosley will exceed those numbers in 2023 and be a reliable and favorite option for quarterback Noah Kim.
Mosley’s nickname is ‘Mr. Reliable’ for a reason, and with the stakes much higher this week, I see Kim relying heavily on the veteran receiver when he needs to make a big throw. Kim can’t force the ball to Mosley, but in a game where every first down will be crucial, it’s not a bad idea to look the senior’s way often.
Aedan’s 3 Bold Predictions
1.) Nathan Carter scores 2 touchdowns
There is a bit of an injury bug amongst the running backs right now. Jalen Berger left the Richmond game in a boot and Jaren Mangham is yet to play a snap this season. Luckily, Nathan Carter has taken the load in the run game and has 224 rushing yards through two games. That production will continue on Saturday, including scoring twice against Washington.
With how well the Spartans have thrown the ball this season, Washington has to respect Noah Kim’s arm. This means there’s an opportunity for Carter to have a big game exploiting the Huskies defense. Even if Berger or Mangham play, I don’t expect them to get many carries considering they are coming back from injury. Carter can spring big plays and is improving his vision while working with the offensive line. He has also shown to be a threat catching screen passes for big plays.
2.) 3 Spartans have 60+ yards receiving
This is going to be a big offensive game for both teams. Noah Kim has shown why he is the starter and has distributed the ball all over through two games. Last season in this game, MSU had three receivers with over 60 yards (Keon Coleman, Daniel Barker, and Tre Mosley) and I expect the same this season.
So far, 12 Michigan State players have caught a pass this season. That can be credited to the depth as well as Kim’s vision and going through his progressions. With a tougher opponent on hand, I don’t expect to see nine players catch a pass, but there are still plenty of options for Kim.
Jaron Glover has shown his playmaking ability in a big way so far this season. Mosley continues to be consistent and a leader amongst the receivers. The third receiving option that can step up against Washington will be determined. Tyrell Henry, Maliq Carr, Christian Fitzpatrick and even Nathan Carter are all possibilities.
3.) Washington is held to less than 100 yards rushing
Part of this is due to the amount Washington likes to throw the ball. Even then, the Spartans have a better rushing defense than Washington’s rushing offense. Penix isn’t an equal threat running as he is passing, which helps Michigan State in the run game. Washington does like ‘jet sweep’ runs to their wide receivers, but that is manageable for MSU. Cornerbacks Dillon Tatum and Charles Brantley have been effective this season helping defend the run game.
Last year against Washington, the Spartans gave up 106 yards rushing. With more depth and an improved defensive line, I expect Michigan State to win this battle. Even if the Spartans drop six players in coverage to defend the passing attack, the defensive line should be able to slow down the Huskies’ run game.
Matt’s Preview, Score Prediction
Throughout the offseason and fall camp, I’ve never liked this matchup for Michigan State. I’ve often called the Huskies’ offense ‘Ohio State-light’, but Washington may have an even more potent offense than the Buckeyes this season.
Behind Michael Penix Jr. and a stocked wide receiver room, the Huskies are averaging 9.2 yards per play this season – the second-best mark in the country behind USC (9.3). Washington attack is also aimed right at Michigan State’s perceived defensive weakness, it’s secondary. This is why I haven’t liked the matchup for MSU.
With that being said, I actually think the on-going Tucker situation will be a rallying cry for the Spartans and something that will galvanize the football team. Ironically, I believe this situation may in a strange way increase Michigan State’s chances at pulling off an upset. I can’t call for that in my official prediction, but I think Washington is in for a battle on Saturday night. Score Prediction: Washington 38, Michigan State 27
Aedan’s Preview, Score Prediction
This is the first big test of 2023, not just for Michigan State but for Washington as well. This Huskies team is similar to last year’s, while MSU has changed quite a bit. That doesn’t make it any easier for the Spartans, but there is some added pressure on Washington. Spartan Stadium is a difficult road environment and there will be some extra intensity in the stadium for a number of reasons.
I think the magic number of points to hold Washington to is 34. That offense can score at any time from anywhere on the field. Giving up big plays seems inevitable, but if the Spartans make Washington have long drives and keep chunk plays to a minimum, that gives MSU a better chance to win.
If the defense’s magic number is 34, the offense’s magic number is 35. For that to happen, Maliq Carr and Jaron Glover are the weapons that need to make big plays downfield. Kim won’t be as comfortable in the pocket as he was the first two weeks, because Washington likes to bring pressure. If he can make throws on the run and find Carr, Mosley and Glover, Michigan State will be in a position to win this game.
There’s a lot to like from this MSU team, and they will come out playing with confidence. But, ultimately, Washington is the better team right now. I think the Spartans’ offense can do their job, but the defense will come up short. Washington has a lot of perimeter threats that will be too much for MSU’s young defensive backs early in the season. Score Prediction: Washington 38, Michigan State 35
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