Staff Predictions: No. 15 Michigan State vs. Western Michigan
The long, dreaded offseason has finally reached its end, and we are just hours away from seeing Michigan State football on the field again.
The Spartans open with a familiar, in-state opponent in the Western Michigan Broncos. It will be the first matchup between these programs since 2019, when the Spartans beat the Broncos in convincing fashion, 51-17.
Michigan State is 14-2 all-time against Western Michigan, and have not lost to the Broncos since 1919. The Spartans enter Friday’s matchup as a 22-point favorite.
Without further ado, Spartan Nation senior writer Matthew Lounsberry and contributor Aedan Mulcrone each share 3 Bold Predictions as well as Game Overview, and Final Score Predictions below:
Matt’s 3 Bold Predictions
1.) Spartan defense records at least 4 sacks
Everyone knows how much Michigan State struggled in pass defense a season ago. The Spartans’ secondary took the brunt of the blame for that, but Tucker put an emphasis on developing a better pass rush in 2022.
The Spartans added pass rush specialist Brandon T. Jordan, defensive line coach Marco Coleman and transfer talent – DE Khris Bogle, LB Aaron Brule – to address this need.
With Western Michigan returning just two starting offensive lineman from a season ago, it’s a perfect time for the Spartans to unleash their new edge rush philosophy, and I think it will pay dividends in Game 1.
2.) MSU ground game struggles early, finishes strong
Michigan State’s best player in 2021 was tailback Kenneth Walker III, who took his first carry of the season for a touchdown against Northwestern in the Spartans’ season-opener a year ago.
I don’t expect an MSU tailback to do that in 2022. In fact, I think the Spartans will struggle to run the ball early in the game against Western Michigan. While Michigan State returns some experience along the offensive line, several of their starters are returning from injury.
Furthermore, the Spartans’ top two tailbacks are expected to be transfers Jalen Berger and Jarek Broussard, who haven’t had a game to mesh with their new O-line yet. I think the Spartans eventually find success on the ground against the Broncos, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see MSU’s passing attack lead the way in the season-opener.
3.) Payton Thorne throws for 275+ yards and 3 TDs
Playing off my previous prediction, I expect Payton Thorne to have a big game in the opener as he leads Michigan State’s offensive approach. Thorne will be motivated to be at his best in this one, with his dad, Jeff Thorne, in the opposing press box as Western Michigan’s offensive coordinator.
Additionally, Western Michigan is replacing all but one starter in its secondary, which opens up the field for Thorne and his receivers to attack. Senior Jayden Reed, a former Bronco, will be excited to play against his former teammates, and Michigan State has several new weapons on the outside who are anxious to make an impact.
I almost called for Thorne to exceed 300 yards passing, but he could get pulled in the fourth quarter if Michigan State gets out to a decent-sized lead.
Aedan’s 3 Bold Predictions
1.) Three MSU tailbacks will score TDs
Whether Michigan State plays three running backs because they’re ahead by enough points, or if three will be used in different packages, three tailbacks will score for MSU. Jarek Broussard and Jalen Berger both will find the end zone, and either Elijah Collins or Harold Joiner will score another. All four guys can be pass-catching backs or run with power, and the staff preaches utilizing talent.
As Matthew said, the ground game may be shaky at the start, but the pass catching ability of Broussard is something we didn’t get last season from any of the MSU backs. Expect him to get the ball in space and make defenders miss.
Berger will be more of a between the tackles runner, but can also catch. He seems to have something to prove after being dismissed from Wisconsin. Collins quietly struggled with injuries last season, and can show flashes of his 2019 campaign again this season. Joiner is another pass catching back that will be in more situational packages.
2.) Spartan freshmen will account for 5 tackles or more
Seems like an odd prediction, but I can see freshmen getting a lot of meaningful time in the opener, specifically the early enrollees who have been here since January.
Look for safety Jaden Mangham, cornerback Caleb Coley and defensive tackle Alex VanSumeran out on the field for Michigan State. The staff likes all three, and I think Mangham will be the most impactful freshman this season. It’s not official, but he seems to be on the defensive two-deep depth chart. If Angelo Grose or Xavier Henderson need to come out, he’s the next choice.
Coley has the potential to have a similar impact that Charles Brantley did last year. He won’t start as many games as Brantley did, but could get meaningful reps in conference play.
3.) MSU scores a defensive or special teams touchdown
We know what Jayden Reed can do as a kick returner and punt returner. Looking to repeat his All-Conference campaign last year, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the senior run a touchdown back on Friday.
In 2013, MSU played Western Michigan in the home opener under the lights of Spartan Stadium and WMU threw three interceptions and coughed up a fumble. The Spartans scored on one of the interceptions, as the Broncos were breaking in a new QB.
This feels like a similar situation, and it’s an early chance for redemption for the Michigan State pass defense. More times than not the offense has had slow starts in MSU’s home openers. Without Kenneth Walker III this could be a possibility again in 2022. The defense knows they didn’t meet expectations last year and looks to make a statement on Friday night.
Honorable Mention: MSU will throw a flea flicker
Matt’s Overview, Score Prediction:
Western Michigan is going to want to run the football and protect new starting quarterback Jack Salopek, a redshirt freshman. However, Michigan State was stout against the run in 2021, and I expect that to continue this season.
The Broncos may have to go to the air to move the ball, and despite the struggles the Spartans had in defending the pass a season ago, I think MSU can get after Salopek with its pass rush.
Offensively, I expect Michigan State to move the ball fairly easily with its passing game and the run game will come along in the second half. The Broncos have a good defense, but the new pieces in the secondary have a tall task in defending the Spartans’ perimeter weapons. Michigan State handles business and gets some young guys playing time while moving to 1-0 on the season. Score Prediction: Michigan State 40, Western Michigan 17
Aedan’s Overview, Score Prediction:
The Friday night home opener usually has one of the best atmospheres of the season for MSU. This is a ‘Stripe The Stadium’ game against an in-state school. Fans will be fired up and players will too.
I prefer a non-conference game to open the season, as opposed to a conference game. This gives the coaching staff to play younger, inexperienced players in a game the Spartans should control, and gives the staff better idea which of these players can be useful later on in 2022.
Western Michigan will struggle to find a rhythm with its new offensive coordinator, new quarterback, and all but one new starting receiver against Michigan State’s defense. The Broncos have players who are solid on both sides of the ball, but not at 11 spots on the field.
Michigan State won’t want to show as many formations or schemes on film in Week 1, and should keep it pedestrian. That said, the talent gap will show and the Spartans will run away with it in the fourth quarter. MSU has more playmakers and retains both coordinators. I don’t have any reason to believe this game will be close. Score Prediction: Michigan State 34, Western Michigan 13
