Three Reasons Michigan State Will Beat Michigan Again in 2022
Michigan State and Michigan last met on the football field 254 days ago in East Lansing. The Spartans and Wolverines will meet again on Oct. 29, 2022 in Ann Arbor — 110 days from today.
Head coach Mel Tucker has continued the success that Michigan State has experienced in the Battle for Paul Bunyan trophy game since former coach Mark Dantonio retired. The Spartans have won 10 out of 15 meetings since Dantonio was hired in 2007.
Last season, Tucker became the first head football coach in MSU history to win his first two meetings with the Wolverines, and he'll go for three in a row this fall.
Here are three reasons why Michigan State will beat Michigan again in 2022:
1. Michigan State will have the better, or more experienced QB
Payton Thorne returns under center for the Spartans after a record-setting season in 2021. The Spartan QB threw for a school-record 27 touchdown passes last season, and totaled the third-most single-season passing yards in one season. With a year under his belt, it's fair to assume that Thorne takes another step forward in 2022.
Michigan, meanwhile, has a little more uncertainty at the game's most important position. Cade McNamara led the Wolverines to a Big Ten championship last year, but former five-star recruit J.J. McCarthy made his way on to the field in various situations for the Wolverines as well.
Thorne is a better quarterback than McNamara, who excelled as a game-manager for the Wolverines in 2021. With Michigan's stout defense, McNamara was mostly asked by his coaching staff to hand the ball off to Hassan Haskins or Blake Corum, and ultimately just protect the football.
Yes, McNamara lit up MSU's defense for 383 yards and a pair of touchdowns — but there were several quarterbacks who took advantage of the Spartans' porous pass defense a year ago.
But let's say Michigan goes with McCarthy as it's starter in 2022.
The Wolverines sophomore is more physically gifted than Thorne — that's just a fact, and even Spartan fans should acknowledge it. The football jumps out of McCarthy's hand, and he flashed excellent accuracy a season ago as well.
The advantage that Thorne has over McCarthy is experience. The Spartans quarterback has a full season of starting under his belt, and played in a number of big games.
While I'm impress with McCarthy's talent, he had some big-game jitters in the meeting between the Wolverines and Spartans a year ago. McCarthy fumbled twice — one which bounced harmlessly out of bounds, and another on a shotgun snap that that was recovered by MSU. The Spartans took a 37-33 lead to complete their comeback on the following possession, and the rest is history.
Whether Michigan trots McNamara or McCarthy out on the field on Oct. 29, Michigan State will have some type of edge at quarterback.
2. The Spartans will be more battle-tested
Michigan really ought to be ashamed of the non-conference schedule it put together for the 2022 season. The Wolverines open the year with Colorado State, Hawaii and UConn — not exactly a murderer's row.
The Wolverines then host Maryland, before hitting the road to Kinnick Stadium to face Iowa — admittedly, a tough place to win. Michigan next travels to Indiana, plays host to Penn State. The road trip against the Hawkeyes and the home tilt versus the Nittany Lions are the only two games that jump off that schedule.
Michigan State, meanwhile, challenges itself with a road trip out west to Washington in Week 3. The Huskies are breaking in a new coach, and this is a game that the Spartans should win, but it's certainly more daunting than Connecticut.
In conference play, Michigan State opens by hosting Minnesota, who has improved significantly under P.J. Fleck. The Spartans get a bit of a reprieve the following week with a road trip to Maryland, before returning home for back-to-back games against Ohio State and Wisconsin.
One could make the argument that Michigan State could be more physically beat-up than Michigan coming into the Oct. 29 meeting — that's a valid point. But with both teams getting a bye week on Oct. 22, it gives the Spartans a chance to recover before the rivalry game.
It's likely that Michigan State has already played in a couple close, back-and-forth battle heading into the Michigan game. The Wolverines, meanwhile, have an easier path to the rivalry game, with the exception of Penn State. This could add to the psychological advantage that the Spartans have seemed to have in this matchup over the past decade and a half.
3. Paul Bunyan means more to Michigan State
This game means more to the Spartans than it does to the Wolverines, that's just a fact.
Ohio State has always been the bigger and more important rivalry game to Michigan, even though the Wolverines have had little success against the Buckeyes for the past two decades.
But, for Michigan State, the Battle for Paul Bunyan is the most important game on the schedule.
When I speak about the Spartans' psychological advantage in this game, this is what I'm referring to. Everybody has heard that old cliche' that goes, 'You have to want it more than them!', but it's a cliche' for a reason.
Not only does Michigan State want this game more than Michigan, Tucker and his staff have started to close the talent gap with the Wolverines in recruiting. Combine those two factors, and the Spartans are set up to continue their success in this in-state rivalry.
Twitter: @mlounsberry_SI
