Way-Too-Early Look At Michigan State Football's 2023 Schedule
College football's 2022 season came to an end last week when Georgia walloped TCU in the national championship game, giving the Bulldogs back-to-back titles.
Immediately following that game, several publications released "Way-Too-Early" Top 25 projections for the 2023 season. Not surprisingly, the Michigan State Spartans were not included among those projections following a disappointing 5-7 campaign this past season.
However, that won't stop us from taking a look at every opponent that Mel Tucker's squad has scheduled in 2023 and sharing our "Way-Too-Early" thoughts on each game.
Sept. 2 — vs. Central Michigan Chippewas
Like last season, Michigan State begins their campaign with a home game against a Mid-American Conference opponent.
Central Michigan is coming off a 4-8 season in 2022, and head coach Jim McElwain might find himself on the hot seat heading into the 2023 season. In two games against Power Five conference opponents last year, the Chippewas lost to both Oklahoma State (58-44) and Penn State (33-14).
The Spartans should cruise to an easy victory in Week 1 and start their 2023 campaign off right in this one. Score Prediction: Michigan State 38, Central Michigan 13
Sept. 9 — vs. Richmond Spiders
In Week 2, the Spartans welcome an FCS opponent to East Lansing in the Richmond Spiders. Michigan State last hosted an FCS team in 2021, when they defeated Youngstown State, 42-14.
This is another tune-up game for the Spartans, and one that they will win with ease. The Spiders have had a solid program in recent years, and are coming off a 9-4 record in 2022. However, Michigan State will have better athletes at every position on the field and should have no problem moving to 2-0 on the season. Score Prediction: Michigan State 45, Richmond 17
Sept. 16 — vs. Washington Huskies
After a pair of over-matched opponents to begin the year, Week 3 will provide a major test for the Spartans.
Washington finished No. 8 in the final poll for the Associated Press' Top 25 rankings after an 11-2 season in Year 1 under head coach Kalen DeBoer. The Huskies defeated Michigan State, 39-28, in Seattle last season in the front half of a home-and-home series between the two programs.
The series shifts to East Lansing in 2023, but Washington will bring back most of their key pieces from the explosive offense it had this past season. Starting quarterback Michael Penix Jr. returns, as does his top two targets at receiver. The Huskies also added former Spartan freshman Germie Bernard to their roster via the transfer portal.
Washington could come into this game as a Top 10 team in the early polls next season, and I can't in good faith predict the Spartans to knock them off this far ahead of the season. Score Prediction: Washington 37, Michigan State 24
Sept. 23 — vs. Maryland Terrapins
Michigan State opens Big Ten play in Week 4, hosting Maryland.
The Terrapins defeated the Spartans in College Park last season, 27-13, on their way to an 8-5 record in Year 4 under head coach Mike Locksley. Maryland has improved in each season since Locksley was hired in 2019, but may have to break in a new starting quarterback in 2023, as they await Taulia Tagovailoa's decision to either enter the NFL Draft or return to college.
The Terrapins played both Michigan and Ohio State tough this past season, and shouldn't be taken lightly. However, the Spartans get this game at home in 2023, and I like their chances to put this one in the win column. Score Prediction: Michigan State 33, Maryland 27
Sept. 30 — at Iowa Hawkeyes
In our scenario, Michigan State is off to a 3-1 start as they head into their first road test of the season in Week 5.
Iowa routinely has one of the best defenses in the Big Ten, and Kinnick Stadium is a tough place to play. The Hawkeyes added Michigan transfer quarterback Cade McNamara, who will be an upgrade over any of the guys that Iowa trotted out on the field in 2022. They also added former U-M tight end Erick All, who will provide McNamara with a reliable go-to target.
This is a game that really can go either way. I expect a low-scoring, old school Big Ten slugfest, and Michigan State has a bit of advantage with offensive weapons like Keon Coleman. However, with this one being played in Iowa City, I'm leaning towards the Hawkeyes for now. Score Prediction: Iowa 23, Michigan State 20
Oct. 14 — at Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Following a bye week, Michigan State hits the road again in Week 7 with a trip to Piscataway, N.J.
The Spartans are 8-1 against Rutgers since the Scarlet Knights joined the Big Ten back in 2014, including a 27-21 victory in this game last season in East Lansing. I expect Michigan State to be an improved team in 2023, but I don't know how much better Rutgers will be.
Even on the road, this is a game that the Spartans must win, and I expect them to get it done to improve to 4-2 overall and 1-1 in Big Ten play. Score Prediction: Michigan State 34, Rutgers 17
Oct. 21 — vs. Michigan Wolverines
The Battle for the Paul Bunyan trophy returns to East Lansing in 2023. The in-state rivals have split this series, 4-4, since Michigan head coach Jim Harbaugh was hired ahead of the 2015 season.
MSU head coach Mel Tucker suffered his first loss in the series last year in Ann Arbor, but the game is mostly remembered for the unfortunate tunnel incident that led to the suspension of eight Spartan players for the rest of the season.
It's safe to say that the bad blood between these two programs has only been intensified as a result of last year's game, and you can expect to see two very highly-motivated teams on the field at Spartan Stadium. Like it or not, the Wolverines have established themselves as the program to beat in this league after back-to-back Big Ten championships.
Michigan State always has a shot at winning this game, no matter the circumstances, but until we see what the Spartans look like in 2023, I've got to lean towards Michigan in this matchup. Score Prediction: Michigan 34, Michigan State 27
Oct. 28 — at Minnesota Golden Gophers
The Spartans got a tough draw with their Big Ten West crossover games, with road trips to both Iowa and Minnesota. The Golden Gophers rolled the Spartans in East Lansing a year ago, 34-7, in a game that signaled the 2022 season was going to be a tough one for MSU.
Minnesota will have to replace starting quarterback Tanner Morgan, who suffered a season-ending injury in his final year of collegiate eligibility in 2022. The Gophers will also be without their lead tailback, Mo Ibrahim, who has exhausted his eligibility.
Head coach P.J. Fleck has this program in a good spot, and Minnesota has been one of the most consistent teams in the Big Ten in recent years, winning at least nine games in each of the last three full-length seasons. With that being said, the Gophers could take a step back in 2023 and I'm leaning towards Michigan State in this matchup. Score Prediction: Michigan State 31, Minnesota 23
Nov. 4 — vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers
It's hard to know what to expect from Nebraska heading into 2023. The Cornhuskers fired head coach Scott Frost just three games into the 2022 campaign, which finished with a 4-8 record for the Huskers.
Nebraska hired Matt Rhule as their new head coach, who brings with him a history of turning around bad college programs. As the head coach at Temple, Rhule went 2-10 in his first year with the Owls but won back-to-back conference titles in the American in 2015 and 2016 while guiding Temple to records of 10-3 and 10-4, respectively.
Rhule was then named head coach at Baylor, where he went 1-11 in Year 1, 6-6 in Year 2 and 11-3 in Year 3.
The rebuild in Lincoln won't be an easy one. Nebraska hasn't finished with a winning record since 2016, and the Cornhuskers have a roster that is mostly devoid of depth and talent. In modern college football, with access to the transfer portal, head coaches can turn programs around in a hurry, but this is a game that Michigan State needs to win next season. Score Prediction: Michigan State 33, Nebraska 17
Nov. 11 — at Ohio State Buckeyes
Michigan State has not fared well at all in this match up in recent years.
During Mel Tucker's three seasons in East Lansing, the Spartans have been outscored 157-39 by Ohio State — an average of 39.3 points per game. To be fair, Michigan State wasn't much better against the Buckeyes in the final three seasons under Mark Dantonio. The Spartans were outscored 108-19, an average of 29.7 points per game, in those games.
The hard truth is that Michigan State is not close to where Ohio State is at as a program. The Spartans have lost seven in a row in this series, after wins over the Buckeyes in 2015, 2013 and 2011. With the 2023 matchup taking place in Columbus, there's little reason to think Michigan State will end that losing streak. Score Prediction: Ohio State 42, Michigan State 20
Nov. 18 — at Indiana Hoosiers
If there was one game that encapsulated Michigan State's struggles in 2022, it was the game against Indiana. The Spartans led 24-7 at halftime, but allowed the Hoosiers to come back and tie the game in an abysmal second half. Indiana eventually went on to win the game, 39-31, in double overtime, which ultimately cost Michigan State a bowl game.
After going 10-1 against the Hoosiers from 2007 to 2019, the Spartans have lost two of the last three in this series, which is unacceptable.
There's no reason why Michigan State should lose this game in 2023. Indiana will be breaking in a new quarterback, and the Spartans should be an overall better team than they were in 2022. I don't know if I can say the same thing about the Hoosiers. Score Prediction: Michigan State 40, Indiana 17
Nov. 25 — vs. Penn State Nittany Lions
Although the series between Michigan State and Penn State falls under the category of a "forced rivalry" in the Big Ten, these two programs have split the previous 37 matchups with an all-time record of 18-18-1.
Since the Nittany Lions joined the Big Ten in 1993, Penn State holds a 17-10 record over the Spartans. However, the each program has won seven of the last 14 meetings dating back to 2006.
Penn State went 11-2 last season, with their lone losses coming against Michigan and Ohio State. The Nittany Lions expect to compete for a Big Ten championship in 2023, behind new starting quarterback Drew Allar, a former five-star recruit.
With this game being played in East Lansing, an upset victory for Michigan State would not surprise me. However, the Spartans still have a lot to prove after their 5-7 campaign in 2022, so I'll side with Penn State for now. Score Predictions: Penn State 31, Michigan State 27
Final Thoughts
With the 2023 season still eight months away, it's impossible to know what to expect from both Michigan State and their future opponents. The Spartans got hit hard by injuries early on in 2022, and while it's fair to say that MSU was bound to backtrack from its 11-2 record in 2021, those injuries derailed what could have at least been a winning season a year ago.
Tucker has recruited well over the past two cycles, and has used the transfer portal to fill some key positions. For now, we're predicting a 7-5 record for Michigan State for next season.
