MSU's Chances of Beating Iowa Rest on Aidan Chiles' Ability to Avoid Big Mistakes
Michigan State returns to the field after having the last week off. The Spartans will face Iowa at home in a game they must win to end their three-game losing streak.
Iowa has again proven to be one of the better teams in the Big Ten. A win for Michigan State would solidify what has been a relatively successful season.
Stuckey of the Action Network analyzed why he believes Michigan State has a chance to pull off the upset.
“I thought the bye could be extra valuable for a team that had so much turnover from a staff and roster perspective in the offseason,” Stuckey said. “It also helps to have one of the most underrated coaches in the country steering the ship, especially considering the Spartans have dealt with an abundance of injuries through the first half of the season.
“Iowa played its role in this spot by blowing out Washington, 40-16, which was a misleading final score. The Hawkeyes, who were outgained 393-328, were aided by all kinds of Washington mistakes in a brutal situational spot for the Huskies."
Stuckey believes the Spartans’ defense gives them a chance against the Hawkeyes, as Michigan State plays well against the run. However, Stuckey notes that the Spartans’ defense has not done a good enough job of limiting explosive plays. Luckily for Michigan State, explosive plays are not something Iowa’s offense is known for.
“Matchup-wise, Michigan State's defense has fared much better against the run, ranking in the top 30 nationally in Rush Success Rate. That's critical against an Iowa offense that wants to lean on Kaleb Johnson and the ground game.
“The Michigan State defense has also really struggled in limiting explosiveness, particularly through the air, but Iowa has one of the least explosive passing offenses in FBS. And while this Iowa defense is still very good, it's not the same elite unit (51st in Success Rate) we've seen in recent years under coordinator Phil Parker, especially along the defensive line.”
For Stuckey, Michigan State knows what they will get out of its defense, but offensively, the Spartans hope quarterback Aidan Chiles can play well and avoid the big mistakes he has been prone to making through the season’s first six games.
“Michigan State quarterback Aidan Chiles will have opportunities to make plays,” Stuckey said. “I just hope he doesn't make too many mistakes, which is my biggest concern on Saturday night in East Lansing. Give me the home pup in an ideal situational spot, catching nearly a touchdown in a game where points should come at a premium with a total of just 41.5."
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Ezekiel is a former Sports Editor from the Western Herald and former Atlanta Falcons beat writer.