MSU's Jonathan Smith's History Against Oregon Far From Favorable
Michigan State is preparing to face one of the top-ranked teams in the country when it travels to the West Coast to face the Oregon Ducks. Like last week against Ohio State, Michigan State is not expected to have much of a chance against a team with more talent than they do.
Collin Wilson of The Action Network believes Michigan State is in for another long day against one of the best teams in the country. Wilson noted Smith’s difficulties against Oregon coach Dan Lanning while Smith was at Oregon State as a cause for concern for the Spartans.
“Oregon beat Oregon State, 31-7, last November, winning all three Eugene battles since Smith took the Beavers' head coach position in 2018. Smith took the Michigan State job over the offseason, but disadvantages in Havoc could provide an unfriendly return to Autzen Stadium.
Wilson credited Oregon’s defense for a productive first four games of the season, especially in the last two games. The Ducks’ defense has been a large part of why Oregon has found success after struggling during the season's first two games.
“Oregon cranked up the heat on UCLA in Week 5, producing seven tackles for loss and four passes defensed,” Wilson said. “The Ducks rank third nationally in passes defended — a combination of interceptions and pass breakups.
“Oregon is one of the highest-ranked teams nationally in creating contested catches, averaging eight passes defensed per game. Cornerback Jabbar Muhammad has been critical to the success of the Ducks' defense, producing the most forced incompletions on the team."
For Wilson, the game could be decided by the ability of Oregon’s defense to pressure quarterback Aidan Chiles and force him into adding to Michigan State’s already high turnover total. Michigan State has struggled with turnovers since the first game of the season.
"[Aidan Chiles] has generated nine interceptions and 14 turnover-worthy plays in just 136 passing attempts this season," Wilson said. "Chiles' turnover-worthy play rate of 8.6% jumps to 13.5% with pressure, as he has thrown six interceptions on 35 passing attempts in a crowded pocket.
"The Spartans offense has been incapable of cashing in on scoring opportunities this season, ranking 126th in Finishing Drives. In 28 possessions crossing the opponent's 40-yard line, Michigan State averages just 2.9 points per trip.”
“Oregon has left little doubt in the previous two victories against Oregon State and UCLA, producing a 100% post-game win expectancy. The Ducks are expected to roll behind a methodical defense that's top 25 in Standard Downs and Passing Downs Success Rate.”
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Ezekiel is a former Sports Editor from the Western Herald and former Atlanta Falcons beat writer.